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The innocent bystander is not something that can be predicted (at least in this scenario) and thus must be left out of the choice that the criminal forces me into.
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Where do you get this? The scenario doesn't say one way or the other, but I don't think we're talking about an innocent bystander six blocks away that gets hit by one of your stray bullets. I'm understanding the scenario to be that the innocent bystander is in the same room with the shooter and the "bad guy".
How is missing the bad guy and hitting the innocent bystander not "something that can be predicted"? Missed shots in self-defense scenarios are so common as to almost be cliché.
One innocent shooting another during a crime is admittedly rare - that's why I mentioned the similar case of a car pulling out in front of you, "forcing" you to swerve to miss it. That happens frequently, and it's well-established that you're responsible for any damage or injury you cause while avoiding the idiot that pulled out in front of you. He may have forced the choice upon you (hitting him or swerving to avoid him), but the choice itself and its consequences are still yours.