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The scenario being described here does not sound like one that can be easily defended as self-defense.
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I don't recall any particular law that says you must identify your target with 100% accuracy before a self defense action can be considered self defense. The only way he would be in trouble is if he hurts the wrong person. If he correctly determines the silhouette is a threat and uses the level of defensive action allowed by law for the level of threat, there won't be a problem. Should you be 100% confident the threat is a threat? Yes, but there isn't a legal stipulation for this.
With that said, he is wrong in saying no amount of outer camouflage or debris can hide the heat. Lots of things hide the heat. I see that all the time when hunting animals. I see it in my fellow hunters in winter time. The more layers they have on, the more their heat signature is hidden from thermal.
By describing the bright red silhouette, it sounds like he is describing a feature present on FLIR's "intsalert palette where the hottest portions of objects are designated as red. I find that it tends to create a more confusing image.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoOBVqjgxfw