The Firing Line Forums - View Single Post - So, how likely is Obama to take our guns away?

Webleymkv · June 17, 2010, 02:15 AM

In the current political climate, the chances of any major federal gun control legislation getting off the ground is pretty slim. Gun control has been a losing issue for the Democratic Party for over 15 years and the current party leadership knows it.

The Democrats lost control of congress in 1994 due in no small part to the passage of the AWB. Bill Clinton himself noted this and also commented that Al Gore's stance on gun control was a major factor in his loss to George W. Bush in 2000. John Kerry did not have a very good record on gun control as he voted to renew the AWB in 2004 and he lost to Bush the same year.

Also, part of the strategy that the Democrats used to re-take congress in 2006 was to run moderate and even mildly conservative candidates rather than far-left liberals in traditionally conservative-leaning states in the south, midwest, and west. These states generally aren't very supportive of gun control and a congressman or senator from such a state would do great harm to his re-election chances by voting for any major piece of gun-control legislation.

Don't forget as well that even if the President was able to get the support of congress for gun control legislation, the Supreme Court could still rule it to be unconstitutional. Given the decision of SCOTUS in Heller v. D.C. and the likelihood of a similar decision in McDonald v. Chicago, it's probably safe to say that we've got one of the most gun friendly courts in U.S. history.

Finally, pushing a gun control agenda right now would be politically foolhardy and Obama knows it. The Democratic party is facing a very tough midterm election this year and the president has already used a lot of political arm-twisting to get the most controversial parts of his agenda such as healthcare through. To use up so much of his remaining political capital on an almost certainly losing issue which could very well be the final nail in the coffin of the Democratic control of congress just doesn't make much sense. Also remember that the senate majority leader, Harry Ried, actually has a pretty good record on gun control despite being quite liberal on most other issues.

Now, if the Democrats manage to retain control of congress through the 2012 election and Obama manages to win a second term, there might be a better possibility of major gun control legislation. Given his prior record, Obama is certainly no friend to gun owners. However, in the current situation I don't view him as our greatest enemy either. The NRA is one of the most powerful special interest groups in the country and is no ally of Obama already. The President already has big enough fish to fry without giving the NRA and other pro-gun groups like GOA and the Second Amendment Foundation more political ammunition to use against him and his party.

June 17, 2010, 02:15 AM	#4
Webleymkv Senior Member Join Date: July 20, 2005 Location: Indiana Posts: 10,446	In the current political climate, the chances of any major federal gun control legislation getting off the ground is pretty slim. Gun control has been a losing issue for the Democratic Party for over 15 years and the current party leadership knows it. The Democrats lost control of congress in 1994 due in no small part to the passage of the AWB. Bill Clinton himself noted this and also commented that Al Gore's stance on gun control was a major factor in his loss to George W. Bush in 2000. John Kerry did not have a very good record on gun control as he voted to renew the AWB in 2004 and he lost to Bush the same year. Also, part of the strategy that the Democrats used to re-take congress in 2006 was to run moderate and even mildly conservative candidates rather than far-left liberals in traditionally conservative-leaning states in the south, midwest, and west. These states generally aren't very supportive of gun control and a congressman or senator from such a state would do great harm to his re-election chances by voting for any major piece of gun-control legislation. Don't forget as well that even if the President was able to get the support of congress for gun control legislation, the Supreme Court could still rule it to be unconstitutional. Given the decision of SCOTUS in Heller v. D.C. and the likelihood of a similar decision in McDonald v. Chicago, it's probably safe to say that we've got one of the most gun friendly courts in U.S. history. Finally, pushing a gun control agenda right now would be politically foolhardy and Obama knows it. The Democratic party is facing a very tough midterm election this year and the president has already used a lot of political arm-twisting to get the most controversial parts of his agenda such as healthcare through. To use up so much of his remaining political capital on an almost certainly losing issue which could very well be the final nail in the coffin of the Democratic control of congress just doesn't make much sense. Also remember that the senate majority leader, Harry Ried, actually has a pretty good record on gun control despite being quite liberal on most other issues. Now, if the Democrats manage to retain control of congress through the 2012 election and Obama manages to win a second term, there might be a better possibility of major gun control legislation. Given his prior record, Obama is certainly no friend to gun owners. However, in the current situation I don't view him as our greatest enemy either. The NRA is one of the most powerful special interest groups in the country and is no ally of Obama already. The President already has big enough fish to fry without giving the NRA and other pro-gun groups like GOA and the Second Amendment Foundation more political ammunition to use against him and his party.