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The odds of needing a firearm to fend off a violent attack are pretty low.
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True.
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The odds of needing one and successfully using one are lower
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That may be, but it is irrelevant.
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The odds of needing one, successfully using one, and needing to fire a shot to be successful are lower
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True.
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The list goes on but the odds of needing a spare magazine are incredibly small so we cannot be making the argument that extremely small odds are the reason to not carry a second or third spare.
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That is an invalid statistical analysis.
One starts with determining the odds of needing a second magazine, and being able to use it,
once the firearm has come into play.