Realistically, I would likely be facing situation 3 (no gun).
Demeanor is a big thing for me. If I think he is about to/has started shooting or otherwise hurt people, I go for the base of the skull with a strike, then graple/strike as best I can while trying to keep the muzzle away from me. (Assuming I don't hesistate too long)
If he strikes me as "threaten, grab, and run," I find the least visible spot behind the most solid object I can. (Also works for "Oops, I hesitated, and don't have a clear opportunity for a strike.")
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