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LIKELY is the operative word. I wouldn't bet my well being on "likely" and neither should you.
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But you do, whether one likes to admit it or not. Most of the time one is betting their well being on "likely". We drive to work because it is "likely" we won't get in a wreck. We go places on vacation because it is "likely" we will have a good time instead of getting mauled by a bear or drown in the lake or whatever. We carry a particular gun/caliber combination because we think it is "likely" to handle our needs.