Given the choices you lay out, I think I'd choose #4. I'd prefer the 3" magnum load. To me, it seems that it would provide a good balance of pattern and depth, understanding that by depth I mean rate at which they bounce off fur. :-)
I shoot the Remington 3" magnum shell and even #4 turkey shot tears up paper targets pretty good at 50'. It might be just enough to make that bear stop and think for a minute about his next move.
/*tom*/
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