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Given that background checks, as they stand, only led to something like 75 cases being forwarded for prosecution in 2011 (is that the right year?), . . . not really. I will certainly not rule out the possibility that it might lead to some few (i.e. single digit numbers) extra being forwarded for prosecution, but certainly not enough to warrant imposing background checks on every private sale. I just don't think that many felons are buying from strangers. If you're a felon, that's a fairly high-risk move.
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Being prosecuted is not quite the same as stopping them from purchasing.
I think you're right, and you're wrong. About 40% are friends and family, about 40% are street buys/illegal sources- most likely some level of stranger. So we won't stop the 40% of street buys, but we'll put a real dent in the 40% of friends and family.