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I do not disagree with the point, just the methodology.
I have written a number of operational plans, in that context an assumption is more like; if we call for a fire truck we can assume that one will respond. It is an assumption of fact, not fantasy.
Assumptions without fact will get you in trouble every time. the assumptions may be Correct for John, but not for everyone. Not everyone possesses the same skill level or the same ability to maintain a level head.
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It's all about assumptions and context, and everyone's assumptions and context are different. However, an assumption is not a fact. An assumption is a probability for people who don't like numbers... just a guess without numbers to back it up.
Depending on where we live and what's going on during any given time, we may or may not be able to safely assume the fire truck will come in time to help us. If we carry 5 and assume it will be enough, then we have to live with it if it's not. If we choose not to carry at all we live with that. And if we carry 50 and get taken out by a guy with a knife or pointy stick, because we were too lazy to train hand-to-hand, then we live with that.
The only reason to cc a gun at all in the first place is "what if", statistics, models, or gut-feel and assumptions. I'm less likely to need a gun than many, but I'll carry what I damn well please whether it's 1 round or 50. John's data gives us all something to think about whether we chose to think or not, and his presentation of it is excellent. If anyone has any improved what-ifs or assumptions, either numeric or otherwise, then I'd welcome them.
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As I've said before, if someone lacks the common sense to make these realizations, no amount of math is going to help them and they probably shouldn't be carrying a gun in the first place. No amount of math can fix stupid.
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Agreed. No amount of ammo will either.
