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I'm not arguing that going outside is the RIGHT thing to do. I am saying that telling someone it's the WRONG thing to do isn't correct either.
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I'll disagree. Telling someone they should minimize their danger and loss of resources should always be the default, and should only be countered in very rare and narrow circumstances. My $.02.
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Yet here, even when you know that a higher percentage of crooks don't engage, you point to the anomaly (a fairly rare instance of someone getting hurt) and use that to advocate a course of action. In both scenarios, this one and the robbery one, being in the statistical minority has the gravest consequences. Yet you argue for following the numbers in one case and against it in the other.
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I think you are missing a key point. You can accomplish your goal the great majority of the time without putting yourself in danger, simply by turning on lights, yelling at the BG (or whatever), and so on. If that doesn't work, and the BG does stick around, the chances are the BG is not going to be deterred by your coming out of the house to tell him to go away. So the BG that sticks around is quite likely one of the higher risk encounters. The BG that sticks around IS the BG that is likely to engage. You've got the "don't engage" BGs out of the picture already.