MLeake, the OP will be in Europe for a matter of weeks or months not years.
Don't think your multiplication of risk by years is correct. The chances stay the same year after year. It's like flipping a coin the odds are always 50/50 flipping heads 3 times in a row doesn't increase the odds that the next flip will be tails.
As you can see by this report.
http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/97.835.PDF
The odds of dying in a car crash vary depending on a range of conditions, age sex, time of day etc.
The same would be true of the risks of personal attack in a major European city. One condition that would reduce that risk (imho) would be, being a tourist in areas frequented by tourist, ie the British Museum, Trafalgar Square, Abby Road.
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Capt Rick Hiott ,,,,,,this started out talking about flash lights......
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Flashlights used as weapons.