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Old February 24, 2013, 06:08 PM   #104
Southwest Chuck
Join Date: August 11, 2009
Location: A Calguns Interloper
Posts: 39
I completely concur with your assessment. Excellent post Luger

For those of you who don't frequent, here is another analysis posted by Gene Hoffman, Chairman of the Calguns Foundation of the inter-play between Moore and Kachalsky, with an obvious emphasis of the effects on California:

Originally Posted by hoffmang View Post
There are three likely outcomes and then I'll explain how this impacts California.

1. Madigan doesn't apply for Cert. There are lots of politics and even the other side knows we can count to 5. I haven't thought enough to be able to handicap this, but if that happens a Kachalsky has a near certainty of grant.

2. Upon a cert application, SCOTUS relists and holds Kachalsky until they grant both. Of #2 and #3, I only give this about a 10% chance.

3. Kachalsky is granted in the early April timeframe and Moore's cert petition gets relist/hold until the decision in Kachalsky is delivered. I give this about a 90% chance.

As long as a carry case gets granted before June 2Xish 2013, we will have a decision on carry 5 (maybe 6) 4 (maybe 3) by the end of June 2014. Oral arguments are likely to take place in October/November. A decision could come as early as January, but the betting money is on late June 2014. That means that in July and August of 2014 we will be able to force almost all sheriffs to issue carry licenses in California and with a small amount of very quick mop up litigation, get them all issuing. The lines will be long and it will take a while to get past the initial crush, but buy June 2015, getting a carry license will be like getting a parade permit - even in California.

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