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Old February 21, 2013, 05:44 PM   #8
Senior Member
Join Date: April 23, 2005
Posts: 461
Well it's true enough that without access to the multiverse and a tardis, we can't really know the pre-election likelihood of this outcome (a concerted push for gun control).

I did (and do) believe that new gun control was going to be a priority of a reelected administration given the dynamics I thought I saw in late 2012, and I expected some tragedy or other to be exploited as political leverage. That seems a more or less standard strategy used to advance gun control proposals.

If you believe the particulars of Sandy Hook are driving the push for gun control, then hindsight bias seems a reasonable conclusion. I agree with your point that changes in the details of this specific event might make it more or less "exploitable" so to speak. I disagree with you insofar as I believe the likelihood of some "exploitable" event occurring to approach 1 over a president's term.

I think the long term dynamics driving the political interest in gun control are independent of the Sandy Hook incident itself.
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