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I would imagine direct theft (by the criminal), indirect theft (criminal buying from a fence), and known unlawful sales (unscrupulous pawn shop guy, or a friend of the criminal, sells to the criminal) far outweigh guns obtained from law-abiding citizens.
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Whoa there, let's go back to the topic at hand here. It was, essentially that we should lock our guns up as much as we can when we aren't using/carrying them. The logic being that it will help prevent theft (houses are easy to break into, safes not as much).
When I said that criminals get their guns from law abiding citizens, this is what I was referring to.
Direct Theft - Who are they stealing from? Law abiding citizens.
Indirect Theft - Where did the fence get the gun? A criminal. Where did that criminal get the gun? Most likely (certainly, not always) from a theft (if they're using a fence to off load hot items) of a law abiding citizen.
Unlawful Sales - This is the only one of the 3 you mentioned where they aren't getting the guns, necessarily from a law abiding citizen. And in some cases, they still are (good guy sells to a bad guy, for example).
The point I was trying to hammer home was that if you want to help keep guns out of criminals hands, making sure your guns are locked up and secured, besides being behind a locked front door, will make a great first step.
That's all I meant. Nothing about NFA. Nothing about cartels, and drug lords. Just about where armed criminals most likely get guns from...they originate from a law abiding citizen, who knowing he's protected from legal liability by keeping his guns behind a locked front door, doesn't secure his guns, and then he has a break in and they get stolen. There's no way to substantiate this since most gun thefts don't get reported (I've heard anywhere between only 10% to 30% are actually reported).
Guns in criminals hands have to come from somewhere. Assuming that NICS is 100% (I know it's not, but the false negative rate of NICS can't be substantiated either), a criminal can't buy one, he'll get a NICS rejection. As you said, those are the only three options, and most guns within those three options come from theft of a law abiding citizen.
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The Border Patrol also has a bean bag loaded as the first round in their shotguns; this is because the Border Patrol does what Janet Napolitano and the administration tell them to do whether or not it makes sense.
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I agree with your sentiment here, but this is an Ad Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy. Just because Big Sister says load your first round as a bean bag, does not mean everything the Border Patrol does is bad. But I agree, I don't completely trust what they are doing either.