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Old December 16, 2012, 08:57 PM   #302
Al Norris
Join Date: June 29, 2000
Location: Rupert, Idaho
Posts: 9,549
Originally Posted by NukemJim View Post
A point of clarification please due to my confusion.

If Illinois passes a CCW law does is have to be "Shall Issue" or does the court order allow "May Issue" to be passed.

I have read different opinions about the above and was wondering.
Please realize that this is only my inexpert opinion (based upon what I think I know ),

In the Kachalsky case (2nd Circuit), Alan Gura has pretty much signaled he will petition the SCOTUS for a grant of cert. He has 90 days from Nov. 27th to file (give or take about 4 days for holidays). That puts things right at the end of Feb. or very early Mar.

Given that the 7th Circuit has decided the Moore/Shepard cases (7th Circuit), I believe he may be in the process of writing 2 drafts. Why 2, you ask?

Because we have yet to hear the decision in the 4th Circuit Woollard case. That could conceivably come out within the time frame Alan has to file. That panel is either going to uphold the MD Good & Substantial (G&S) clause of their carry law (most likely using the reasoning of the 2nd Circuit), or it will uphold Judge Legg's decision at the district court (adopting some of the reasoning of the 7th Circuit).

So one draft will be written as a direct circuit split between the 2nd and the 4th, with substantiating data from the 7th. The other draft (should the 4th not publish within the time frame) will be with the technical split between the 2nd Circuit and the 7th Circuit, with more of the push that "carry" in whatever form is the correct interpretation and does not lie outside the core meaning of the 2A - Self-Defense.

It thus becomes extremely important as to when the 4th publishes their decision. Equally important is what that decision says.

The Kachalsky case could very well be the case that settles the Shall Issue/May Issue question. It will have a profound effect throughout the US, however it is decided.

Right now, with the way things are today, it is slightly less than even odds the Court will grant cert. With a Woollard win, the odds go up dramatically. With a loss, I doubt the Court will grant cert.

Now, taking all of that into consideration, let's look at what Judge Posner said in Moore/Shepard.

Nevertheless we order our mandate stayed for 180 days to allow the Illinois legislature to craft a new gun law that will impose reasonable limitations, consistent with the public safety and the Second Amendment as interpreted in this opinion, on the carrying of guns in public.
We need to ask, what are reasonable limitations that address both the right and the public safety, the this court would be comfortable with?

I suggest that 37 States have laws that do not prohibit the bulk of the population. One "May Issue" State (Alabama), operates for all practical purposes, as "Shall Issue." I would also point to the decision in Ezell for further guidance on"reasonable."

None of the above takes into any consideration what Lisa Madigan may decide to do, in the next few days.

As you can see, a whole bunch of stuff is happening, nearly in parallel. So the actual answer is very complicated, both by matters inside and outside of Illinois.
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