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Old December 6, 2012, 01:54 PM   #134
Join Date: June 8, 2008
Posts: 3,473
Posted by Brian Pfleuger: Even if we accept that math as valid, this is a good example of why averages tend to be worthless.
Averages have very little if any value except in risk pool calculations.

The point of the math is that one cannot take an annual statistic and draw any conclisions about risk over an extended period.

I literally don't know a single person who has ever had to defend themselves against a violent crime, with the possible exception of a lady or two who has been a victim of domestic abuse.


No one.

Not a single person.
To the extent that you have known me in cyberspace for several years, that's not true. It's just that you didn't know it.

I was attacked by several persons with clubs at a school event in a "safe" community in 1959. Being a fast runner, I escaped. Several girls were sexually assaulted, however.

I have used firearms to defend myself against violent burglars on three occasions, without firing. All occurred in good neighborhoods.

Last year, I prevented an obvious armed robbery in the making in a store in a very safe neighborhood, simply by noticing the suspicious actions of two persons. As a result, no one was victimized.

There is absolutely no way that 8 out of 10 people that I know have been attacked or 4 out of 10 have been victims of violent crime.
Whether one actually knows someone who has been victimized or knows about it has nothing to do with whether crimes have occurred. I had a distant cousin, an elderly female, who was stabbed while walking home in an upscale neighborhood before dark many years ago. She survived. I once had a co-worker who was beaten and cut with a bottle, probably under questionable circumstances. Someone else who worked in the same building was murdered. A coworker was convicted of murdering a judge two decades ago.

But the vast majority of violent criminal attacks that I know of involved people whom I did not know. Those include two persons carjacked in a "safe place" days apart, witnessed by my physician's wife; another car-jacking victim the following week; a young lady who was murdered by the suspects in one of the car-jackings in a so called safe place weeks later; and a recent victim of attempted sexual assault who was jogging on a pedestrian trail.

The only way those numbers could possibly be even remotely close to correct is if there are massive populations of people wherein nearly 100% have been attacked or victims of violent crime.
If you do some modeling, you will realize that that is not true.

I find it completely implausible.
One has to separate the subjective from the objective and what one is personally aware of from other incidents.

I have friends who routinely go to certain restaurants and other establishments who have never been victimized and who are not personally aware of anyone who has. They feel very safe indeed. But I know law enforcement officers who know the relevant facts who will not go to the same places when off-duty, and they carry guns.
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