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Old December 6, 2012, 12:49 PM   #128
Brian Pfleuger
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Join Date: June 25, 2008
Location: Western Colorado, finally.
Posts: 19,107
Originally Posted by OldMarksman
I remembered it wrong. The estimated lifetime average likelihood of a twelve year old being injured in a violent crime at least once calculates out to 40%. The likelihood of being attacked at least once is estimated at 83%. The calculations are based on National Crime Statistics annual victimization rates and life-span stats from the National Center for Health Statistics. See this.
Even if we accept that math as valid, this is a good example of why averages tend to be worthless.

I literally don't know a single person who has ever had to defend themselves against a violent crime, with the possible exception of a lady or two who has been a victim of domestic abuse.


No one.

Not a single person.

There is absolutely no way that 8 out of 10 people that I know have been attacked or 4 out of 10 have been victims of violent crime.

Even if I include school yard fights and other teenage-type fisticuffs, it doesn't come close to 40%, say nothing of 80%.

The only way those numbers could possibly be even remotely close to correct is if there are massive populations of people wherein nearly 100% have been attacked or victims of violent crime.

I find it completely implausible.
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