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Old July 21, 2012, 03:15 PM   #28
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Join Date: November 30, 2010
Posts: 3,464
This situation made me think about what might have been had I been there, armed, and been fortunate enough to avoid being a casualty early on in the attack.

I usually carry my DW CBOB 10mm auto with 200 XTP @1200fps. If I was still healthy after the attack started, then I would have to assess the shooter. From reports it was obvious he was wearing body armor, a ballistic helmet, groin protection, leg protection, arm protection and throat protection; as well as a gas mask. Assuming the shooter was wearing at least Level IIIA armor, this would leave a head shot at the solution to stopping the deadly threat. Shooting to center of mass would only draw unwanted attention from a shooter with a AR-15, likely making me a priority target and get me killed.

Negatives for armed response success:
1) If the canisters releases tear gas, that would likely reduce my ability to see and breath, reducing the ability to shoot accurately and quickly.
2) The stress of being in a deadly situation would likely reduce my ability to shoot accurately.
3) The panicked theater patrons' efforts to escape would likely interfere with my ability to have a clear lane to shoot, and I would likely be physically jostled or worse while attempting to get a sight picture.

My conclusion is that had I been there, survived the initial attack, tried to engage the shooter, that I'd most likely have been shot while attempting to make a head shot. Only if I had somehow found myself in a position where I was close to the shooter, uninjured, unhampered by fleeing patrons and unseen by the shooter, might I have been able to make a head shot or if from behind a neck shot.

All in all a very low probability of a good/survivable outcome for an armed response in my guesstimation. (Ya a made up word.)

This shooter planned and setup as many factors in his favor for his survival. The only trade-off that might have been to the shooter's detriment was the gas mask, as it might have limited his vision if an armed response had occurred.
Everything you mentioned went through my head as well and I came to the similar conclusion that best bet for survival would be to lay low. Chances of going toe to toe with a heavily armed and armored man vs a citizen carrying their CCW pistol with no body armor and surviving is pretty slim. That's not even considering he wont be hampered by the tear gas flowing through the theater.
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