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Old June 30, 2012, 02:21 PM   #36
Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
Posts: 20,895
The data doesn't take into consideration the fact that most people will hesitate to shoot another human being so if the BGs are sociopaths you are playing catch up already.
Correct. There are any number of reasons why the probabilities listed might actually turn out to make success (success=2 or more hits on each opponent) seem MORE likely than it really is.
The only time I would take 9 mil over 357 or 45...
The calculations do not take caliber into account at all. They only assume the following:

1. Only a certain number of shots available.
2. A hit rate probability.
3. Success = 2 or more hits per opponent.
4. The defender uses his rounds to maximum effect (e.g. doesn't shoot all of his rounds at the first opponent if he hit him with he first two.)
5. The defender is able to shoot all his rounds in the encounter.
If you are faced with multiple attackers, start with the highest threat based on, proximity, weapon, aggression, ect. A bandit at 10 feet with a shotgun is more of a threat than the one at 3 feet with a club. Put one into each bandit based on threat, return to those that need more.
That's good advice. The calculations don't take that into account. They assume that if you make 2 hits on an opponent that he's neutralized regardless of what order or strategy you use to distribute those hits. It is simplistic, but that's because the results are not intended to be a high-fidelity simulation of a gunfight--it would be impossible to provide that kind of information with a simple probability calculation.

The calculations results provide insight into how hard it is to make multiple hits on multiple opponents given a certain number of shots and a given hit rate probability. Period.
That, and a while back I started shooting my handgun at rolling clays and realized instant incapacitation through shot placement on a dynamic target was going to be difficult to rely upon achieving.
Exactly. Introducing motion into the target is one of the reasons that people don't hit the target as often in a gunfight as they do standing in front of a stationary target at the range. Another is that during a gunfight there's someone shooting at them. Another is that during a gunfight they may be moving themselves to avoid being shot. Another is that they may have to adopt unorthodox shooting positions to take advantage of cover. I'm sure there are others.

It's important for people to understand that the fact that they can stand still in front of a stationary paper target and put 5 rounds into it with 100% consistency doesn't translate to being able to make the same hit rate during an event as dynamic and stressful as a gunfight.
Did you know that there is a TEXAS State Rifle Association?
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