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Old October 1, 2011, 12:01 AM   #235
Al Norris
Join Date: June 29, 2000
Location: Rupert, Idaho
Posts: 9,524
Originally posted August 31, 2011 by Al Norris:

Over at MDShooters, I made a prediction on the grants of cert for Williams and Masciandaro. I thought I had posted that prediction here as well... This all started because I said that we won't find out about either of these two cases until Nov. 22nd. Folks there asked me to clarify. Here's what I wrote last Saturday in response:

My reasons for the prediction of the Nov. 22nd conference are those of a loose paralleling of the Heller case.

In Williams, the cert stage is finished. In Masciandaro, the cert stage finishes around October 31st.

In Heller, the cert stage finished on Oct. 23rd, 2007.

Heller was scheduled for conference on Nov. 9th, 2007. It was passed over (the Court took no action). Heller was next scheduled for conference on the 20th of Nov.

Normally, the conference days are held on a Tuesday. The results of any conference are usually reported on the following Monday. But something strange happened on the 18th.

After Lyle Denniston (SCOTUSBlog) made an announcement over the upcoming conference, we all got wind that the attorneys for both sides going to be at the Court on the 20th. That is unusual.

We now know that on the 20th of Nov. 2007, the Supreme Court announced that it had granted certiorari in D.C. v Heller (unusual in that they didn't wait for the formal announcement, the following Monday). At the same time, the Court denied cert in a companion but conditional cross-motion for cert in the Parker case (the plaintiffs in Parker were seeking standing to join the Heller case).

So... We have a completed cert stage in one case and are now waiting for a completion in cert stage in another similar case. I'm suggesting that Williams will be held (without comment) until the Masciandaro cert is complete.

The calendar for the Court is a bit different this year, in that most conference dates are falling on Fridays. The first conference date, after Masciandaro is Friday, Nov. 4th. I suspect that this is too soon and Masciandaro will be scheduled for the 10th (Fri. the 11th is a holiday).

I'm also suggesting that there will be enough bickering in conference, that both cases will be held until the last conference day of Nov. - Tues., the 22nd (Thanksgiving week, as it was in Heller).

Now. The. Hard. Part.

If we get wind of all 4 sets of attorneys to be present at the Court on the 21st, I predict that both cases will be consolidated and heard together. If not, then I believe Williams will be granted cert and Masciandaro will be held until after the decision is given in the former case.


Williams presents issues that can be answered and will affectively resolve both cases. The reverse isn't as true if Masciandaro is granted cert and not Williams.

Anywho, this is my best guess.

nota bene: I have stuck my neck out in both Heller and McDonald, so there is no reason not to do it again. All that can happen is that I will be wrong (and some of you can point your fingers and snicker at me)!
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