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Old May 22, 2010, 11:35 AM   #98
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Join Date: January 27, 2010
Location: Norfolk, VA
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I think what OldMarksman was saying was that you shouldn't use the worst-case/low-probability scenarios as some kind of scientific risk assessment. As you pointed out, that leads to armored cars and flak jackets (basically, the whole "mall ninja" scenario.)

I do the same thing in aviation - when we're doing the ORM portion of the mission brief, no one asks "what if we're out on station and we get jumped by a division of MiG-29s?" Of course it *could* happen, and it would certainly be a high-severity event, but it's also such a low-probability event that it doesn't even earn a spot on the ORM matrix.
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