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Old April 17, 2009, 05:12 PM   #7
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Join Date: October 20, 2007
Location: Richardson, TX
Posts: 7,271
Tying into that, you'll note that the 80% figure is for "weapon-related offenses," whereas for the violent offenses (assaults, deadly conduct, etc.) they give absolute numbers rather than rates. They also mention arrests, not convictions. Basically it's entirely possible that many of that 81% are more akin to "paperwork violations," which while non-trivial aren't necessarily a danger to public safety.
Arrested! Not convicted. That's the flaw with their argument here, because yes a lot of CCW guys get arrested when using their firearm in self defense, which is "deadly conduct/discharge firearm." I'd venture to say about 99% were released without incident after the facts were straightened out.
+1 to both! This is a classic example of cooking the statistics to make the point you want to make.

Let's look at some statistics ourselves...

Conviction (not arrest!) rates of CHL holders vs. the general population in 2007:

Total number of CHL permit holders was 288,909 in 2007:

Estimated population of Texas in 2007 was 23,904,380 according to the U.S. Census Bureau:

Let's crunch some numbers.

# of non-licensed persons in TX per CHL holder:
(23,904,380 - 288,909) / 288,909 = 81.7

This means that for any given crime, if all else is equal, the number of non-CHL holders committing a crime should be 81.7 times the number of times that crime was committed by a CHL holder. For the sake of time, let's pick a handful of violent crimes. Keep in mind that we are discussing actual convictions for actual violent crimes, not nebulous ill-defined "Weapons Related Arrests".

Aggravated Assault with a Deadly Weapon:
(2,513 - 7) / 7 = 358

Assault Causing Bodily Injury, Family Violence:
(18,507 - 24) / 24 = 770

Deadly Conduct:
(1,432 - 15) / 15 = 94... this is the only one with a large number (>10) of CHL convictions that's even close to 81.7...

(371 - 2) / 2 = 184.5

I like this one... Robbery: 1,791 vs. zero! The same number of CHL convictions for well over 3/4 of the crimes on the list!

The big one:

Number of Texas residents per criminal conviction:
(23,904,380 - 288,909) / (61,260 - 1,806) = 397

Number of CHL holders per criminal conviction of a CHL holder:
288,909 / 160 = 1,806

1,806 / 397 = 4.55. In 2007, non-CHL holders were convicted of crimes at 4.55 times the rate of CHL holders!

I'm sure a statistician would insist on a detailed analysis of all years of data available, but for now, I rest my case.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules... MARK IT ZERO!!" - Walter Sobchak
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