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Old January 15, 2009, 10:47 AM   #78
Glenn E. Meyer
Join Date: November 17, 2000
Posts: 18,722
There can be a tiger in your house. A few years ago, San Antonio had a major flood. Just a few miles from me, it washed out the fences on an animal rescue preserve. The lion got out. It ate the ostrich and then wandered down the road. It's distance and path was not in our direction. However, if it had chosen to walk in another direction, it would have reached our house.

True, it would have had quite a few other houses to choose from.

Years, ago - my mother-in-law moved into a neighborhood where some dirt bag kept a lion in the backyard as a pet.

Thus, I do worry about large predator attacks and plan accordingly.

Ok - one problem with this debate is that some of you (no offense) really don't understand statistical methodology usage. I keep seeing the error of planning as if the central tendency is guaranteed to happen and not understand confidence intervals and the various errors / risks associated with it.

It's very easy - what value to you give to the extremes in planning?
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