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Old January 14, 2009, 10:59 AM   #63
Brian Pfleuger
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Join Date: June 25, 2008
Location: Western Colorado, finally.
Posts: 19,100
It can be argued with statistics that the chances are very good given the 9 previous outcomes.
Actually, that can not be argued with statistics. It COULD be argued by a person that doesn't understand statistics. In order for it to be a valid experiment we must assume that the coin is balanced and that there is no external influence on its' landing. Making those assumptions, there is EXACTLY a 50% chance that the next toss will be heads. The odds of your 9 heads in a row is roughly 19 in 10,000. The odds of getting 100 heads in a row are very low (7.888609X10^-31, approximately) but it could happen. Once it does happen, the odds of getting heads on #101 are exactly 50%. Previous outcomes of random events DO NOT affect future outcomes.
Still happily answering to the call-sign Peetza.
The problem, as you so eloquently put it, is choice.
-The Architect
He is no fool who gives what he can not keep to gain what he can not lose.
-Jim Eliott, paraphrasing Philip Henry.

Last edited by Brian Pfleuger; January 14, 2009 at 11:05 AM.
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