The Firing Line Forums - View Single Post - Interesting Stats : Crime/Permits NY State & City: NY has Most Permits

Double Naught Spy · January 9, 2008, 09:10 AM

gvf, very good!

Yellowfin, that is just amazing. So much for being open-minded. When the data don't fit the hypothesis, so much the worse for the data, eh? We have a family friend who cites crime stats to justify gun ownership so long as the crime states fit his paradigm. When they don't he claims they are being moderated by the government so as to not let the American folks really know what is going on and so he discounts any stats that don't fit his paradigm. By chance, you aren't Jim are you?

Shall issue rates have nothing to do with crime. Yes, crime has gone down after many states have gone to shall issue. Of course as in the Texas of Texas, the crime rate had been falling in the years leading up to it. So the trend simply continued. The crime rate in Illinois, NYC, and Boston also fell the same year Texas got its CHL and those places didn't offer the same open-minded legislation. Did criminals in those far-away places fear the mighty Texas CHL? No, of course not.

Did criminals in the years leading up to the Texas CHL anticipatorily stop committing crime knowing the Texas CHL would be implemented sometime in the future? No, this is even more silly.

Both these suggestions are correlations, but fail to show causation. As it turns out, the trend for Texas is seen in other states as well, an overall and/or ongoing declining crime rate at the time of implementation.

Crime rates go up and down regardless of CCW.

The place where CCW works isn't at the city or state level, but at the individual level. To claim that shall issue works would either imply that the criminals (that we often consider to be dumb) have reasoned out that their chances of running into a person with a gun have gone up so much that they stop committing crime, even though usually states don't have more than a couple percent of people carry, or that CCW people are stopping so many criminals (those crimes being reported) that repeat crimes by those criminals are curtailed. Both are bogus.

The only place shall issue CCW makes a difference is at the most important level. A person with a gun has the option of using the gun for defense versus one who does not. For most places, however, the difference isn't at home, but out on the street. Most folks in the country already had the option of having guns at home, and in some cases, in the car.

January 9, 2008, 09:10 AM	#7
Double Naught Spy Senior Member Join Date: January 8, 2001 Location: Forestburg, Montague Cnty, TX Posts: 12,793	gvf, very good! Yellowfin, that is just amazing. So much for being open-minded. When the data don't fit the hypothesis, so much the worse for the data, eh? We have a family friend who cites crime stats to justify gun ownership so long as the crime states fit his paradigm. When they don't he claims they are being moderated by the government so as to not let the American folks really know what is going on and so he discounts any stats that don't fit his paradigm. By chance, you aren't Jim are you? Shall issue rates have nothing to do with crime. Yes, crime has gone down after many states have gone to shall issue. Of course as in the Texas of Texas, the crime rate had been falling in the years leading up to it. So the trend simply continued. The crime rate in Illinois, NYC, and Boston also fell the same year Texas got its CHL and those places didn't offer the same open-minded legislation. Did criminals in those far-away places fear the mighty Texas CHL? No, of course not. Did criminals in the years leading up to the Texas CHL anticipatorily stop committing crime knowing the Texas CHL would be implemented sometime in the future? No, this is even more silly. Both these suggestions are correlations, but fail to show causation. As it turns out, the trend for Texas is seen in other states as well, an overall and/or ongoing declining crime rate at the time of implementation. Crime rates go up and down regardless of CCW. The place where CCW works isn't at the city or state level, but at the individual level. To claim that shall issue works would either imply that the criminals (that we often consider to be dumb) have reasoned out that their chances of running into a person with a gun have gone up so much that they stop committing crime, even though usually states don't have more than a couple percent of people carry, or that CCW people are stopping so many criminals (those crimes being reported) that repeat crimes by those criminals are curtailed. Both are bogus. The only place shall issue CCW makes a difference is at the most important level. A person with a gun has the option of using the gun for defense versus one who does not. For most places, however, the difference isn't at home, but out on the street. Most folks in the country already had the option of having guns at home, and in some cases, in the car.