View Full Version : Followup to shooting once or twice

June 26, 2006, 05:49 PM
In an attempt to NOT HIJACK this thread, I would like to introduce a little math to the subject.


As Posted by me on THR

It has been posted and reposted on here the one shot stopping statistics of various ammunition types. What about the two shot stopping statistics? Is double tapping statistically worth it?

Get ready for some math because I have developed a spreadhsheet that answers the question.

I've read many reports that a JHP 38 Special +p has between a 60-70 percent one shot stopping probability.

For the sake of argument let's say you are carrying a round that you know has a 65% one shot stop. (This is a given, you must accept it for the model to work). What would be the probablility that two shots would stop the attacker?

Answer: It's the probablility that one out of two plus the probability of two out of two shots are stoppers. -- 87.75% (Or 1-minus the probability of neither-- which is easier to solve for)

Now you can say "Well I can see one out of two but two out of two, if the first one worked then why do I need a second?" The shots are independant events and you don't know that one or both will work and if so in what order if applicable. Think of it as a coin that has a probability of landing on heads of 65%. You flip it twice what is the chance you will get heads?

What can we use this info for? Well, there have been some threads on how to handle mutiple threats. Simple question: You have two attackers, do you fire at both once each or hit one twice and then move to the other? I guess that depends on the statistics of the round you have. If you're packing a scandium snub 357 you might be better off hitting one each, but if you're carrying a .32 maybe doubling isn't such a bad idea.

Blackwater OPS
June 26, 2006, 06:15 PM
The question was already answered for you in the other thread. Shoot until the target is no longer a threat. If you have multilple targets, you need to decide very quickly which is the greater threat then, shoot until the target is no longer a threat. Rinse, repeat as necessary.

June 26, 2006, 06:28 PM
+1 Blackwater. Shoot untill one goes down, move on. Threat assesment. I have a pretty nifty drill to help threat assesment. Now that I'm thinking about it, I'll post it in a thread.

June 26, 2006, 06:53 PM
I don't agree with the "shoot until one goes down" theory. If you are getting shot at by multiple people (which would really suck by thw way), you want to inhibit their ability to fight as quickly as possible. Hitting the threats or at least sending hot lead in their direction greatly reduces their ability to fight. Allowing someone to shoot at you without the threat of them getting shot is most likely suicide.

I just tried my had at IPSC shooting for the first time this weekend. It was friggin' awesome! I was in Guatemala and shot with the #2 ranked shooter in the country (Guatemala that is). We ran through multiple drills including engaging multiple targets, shooting on the move, and shooting from cover. For most scenarios, I had to double tap each target and then engage the next one. Speed and accuracy is the name of the game and is much more practical than shooting at stationary targets while standing still. For you guys who haven't tried it yet, you really are missing out.

June 26, 2006, 07:15 PM
Amen Blackwater. Single shot, double-shot, triple-shot, - caffe latte frappachino mocha...-CENSORED--CENSORED--CENSORED--ever.

Shoot until one is no longer a threat is not necessarily Shoot until one goes down. Maybe this is a fine point, but it is missed by SOOO many.

If you're going to train to engage multiple targets (and you should), then you really need to be able to begin assessing the next threat just BEFORE squeezing the trigger for the first threat. Two shots will always be better than one and can be done with minimal conscious thought, while taking the single shot, then taking a single-shot at the next threat, then coming back to assess the first threat takes more time.

I know that as I'm squeezing the trigger, I'm already assessing the next threat, the first one is taken care of by my peripheral vision.

Properly trained, you can engage up to five targets within 3-4 seconds. Threat #5 isn't going to have much time to react to you before it's his turn - theoretically (because I'm not advocating that anyone ever shoot anybody).

June 26, 2006, 07:44 PM
The question was already answered for you in the other thread.

Thank you for pointing that out.

Purpose was not necessarily to ask a question but to invite discussion on the matter. I'm not saying I'm right, I'm just interested in the conversation and debate.

Blackwater OPS
June 26, 2006, 08:02 PM
You nailed it pickpocket, if you shoot him and he drops his gun move on to the other guy with the gun. CONSTANT Threat Assessment is critical here obviously.

The answer to most of the tactics threads in this forum is training. I can tell you shoot till the target is not a threat but you can't do it until you have the training.

And remember the only thing worse than a slow hit is a fast miss. Well, or a slow miss....