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Old July 20, 2014, 07:28 AM   #1
MTT TL
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Executive Order Halts Imports of Many Russian Guns

Due to the Russian involvement in the Ukraine the President has ordered a number of sanctions against Russia. Notably most guns are banned from import.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/07/18/news...html?hpt=hp_t4

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen.../20140716.aspx

I find the targeting of guns curious since they represent less than 1% of all trade with the US. I could not find anything about ammo restrictions but if ammo goes we could see a panic that has made the last few panics look calm by comparison. In any case I expect to see prices rise. Saigas were already pushed beyond what I consider "affordable". I suspect dealers will use this to instigate a panic if they can once they figure it out.
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Old July 20, 2014, 09:10 AM   #2
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As much as I hate Obama and the idiot politicians trying to ban firearms, I think the recent sanctions against Kaliskinov Concern are legitimate and nothing to worry about (yet).

Also, the executive power that Obama used to ban importation of firearms from Russia is only valid for the current crisis, once things resolve and we resume trade with Russia the ban will be lifted, remember that executive orders are not technically laws and they automatically expire as soon as the reason for issuing said order is resolved, it can't really turn into a permanent ban without going through normal channels.

That said, we should monitor the situaiton (and the NRA legislative branch is doing just that) to make sure this doesn't turn into something more serious.

As far as ammo is concerned, a lot of the "russian steel" is actually produced in factories outside of Russia (I think Bulgaria and Armenia) so I don't expect any change in ammo price or availibility even if ammo from russia gets banned.
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Old July 20, 2014, 09:32 AM   #3
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I don't know about the ammo. It seems they are actually banning companies by name rather than items. If Tula were to go on the naughty list than it could be a problem.
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Old July 20, 2014, 12:41 PM   #4
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Also, the executive power that Obama used to ban importation of firearms from Russia is only valid for the current crisis, once things resolve and we resume trade with Russia the ban will be lifted, remember that executive orders are not technically laws and they automatically expire as soon as the reason for issuing said order is resolved, it can't really turn into a permanent ban without going through normal channels.
None of that is true.

It will remain in effect until Obama or a subsequent president countermands it. It may also be possible to pass a law that invalidates it. Clinton's similar ban on the import of Chinese arms & ammo is still going strong a quarter of a century later--it was imposed in 1994.
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Old July 20, 2014, 12:41 PM   #5
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Guess it's time to buy another Mosin...
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Old July 20, 2014, 12:51 PM   #6
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Cabela's had a rack of them a few weeks ago. 299 a piece, IIRC.

Might have been 199 - duh?
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Old July 20, 2014, 01:03 PM   #7
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We've already discussed the matter in this thread, but here's the gist of it:

The order places Concern Kalashnikov and Izhmash on the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list. That means the importation of their products has been banned. It's rare for these orders to be rescinded, even by later administrations, so it's probably permanent.

The order is perfectly legal, and if we're going to levy sanctions against Russia, weapons exports are a vulnerable segment of their economy. This was done for reasons other than just antagonizing gun owners.

In practice, the only difference American consumers will see is a lack of Saiga firearms on the market. Prices have ballooned and availability has declined on those over the last year, so the order really doesn't do all that much. Most of the "AK-47" type rifles on store shelves are Romanian, Bulgarian, or parts guns assembled stateside. Those aren't affected.

The order doesn't restrict Kalashnikov/Izhmash products bought or imported before it was signed, so old inventory can be sold.

Now, will the sanctions have any effect? I doubt it. Sanctions are meant to inflict economic pain and to deter a rogue nation from doing naughty things. Without the support of Europe, these are relatively insignificant. Furthermore, a man like Putin is unlikely to be cowed by this. We've been to this rodeo before.

Still, this is what politicians are expected to do in a case like this.
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Old July 20, 2014, 08:51 PM   #8
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I could not find another thread discussing this issue. Please close or merge this thread with the other one.


Quote:
Now, will the sanctions have any effect? I doubt it. Sanctions are meant to inflict economic pain and to deter a rogue nation from doing naughty things. Without the support of Europe, these are relatively insignificant. Furthermore, a man like Putin is unlikely to be cowed by this. We've been to this rodeo before.
I have to wonder if Europe imports ANY AKs from Russia. Every old Eastern Bloc country has a factory and the Western ones do not allow their citizens to own them by and large.
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Old July 20, 2014, 09:48 PM   #9
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Please close or merge this thread with the other one.
There's no need to. The other thread is about the impact on the rifle market. We can run one in this forum to discuss the legal aspects.

Quote:
I have to wonder if Europe imports ANY AKs from Russia. Every old Eastern Bloc country has a factory and the Western ones do not allow their citizens to own them by and large.
There's a certain irony in the current situation. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the Russians discovered the idea of patents, and they went all asplodey over the fact that numerous other parties were cloning their wares.

The arms export business has long been a staple of their economy, and the clones were biting into that. This week's executive order will also bite into that, though I doubt it will be much of a deterrent to Putin.
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Old July 21, 2014, 09:49 AM   #10
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I know we don't like discussing politics here, but it seems there are far more likely targets to focus on if a real impact on Russian commerce is what's being attempted. I bet, for instance, that there is a lot more Stoly and other Russian vodkas sold here than Russian-made weapons. This seems more like another opportunity for the administration to make it harder for gun enthusiasts.
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Old July 21, 2014, 11:06 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Tom Servo
This week's executive order will also bite into that, though I doubt it will be much of a deterrent to Putin.
I just don't see there being that much money involved in rifle/shotgun sales from the Kalashnikov concern to the US. Saiga shotguns, while having their own loyal community, are such a small part of the market that it's probably about negligible. Saiga rifles just don't seem to be as popular as some of the other nations' AKs because of the conversions required on them to make them the same profile.

They may add up to a few million per year, but that's a rounding error for most governments.

Like bikerbill said, I'd think a prohibition on importing their vodka would be a bigger deal to them. But then, that might cause some pushback on the administration... prohibiting arms imports for civilians won't cause any of that since anybody who would dislike it isn't a political ally of theirs anyway. Politically, it's free.

But even then, the government can indeed prohibit imports without infringing on the RKBA... with such a large domestic arms industry, not being able to buy a Saiga is really no biggie. We have the right to purchase firearms, just not necessarily the right to purchase that particular brand of foreign firearms.
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Old July 21, 2014, 04:21 PM   #12
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^^^ Technosavant pretty much hit the nail on the head.

The ban is largely symbolic.

However, as I said in the other thread- and as JohnKSa posited above- I think that the ban will prove to be effectively permanent. Regardless of the next POTUS's political affiliation, he/she isn't going to want to be the one to undo a ban on so-called "AK-47's".
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Originally Posted by Technosavant
Like bikerbill said, I'd think a prohibition on importing their vodka would be a bigger deal to them.
Nah, the "big one" is the aerospace industry, particularly civil airliners and helicopters. The Russian civil aircraft industry has been desperately trying to claw its way back into competitive relevance ever since the captive Communist Bloc market opened up to Western aircraft. The Russians have several very promising civil aircraft in the pipeline, and a loss of Western technology would effectively kill those programs and set the industry a generation behind, again.

The problem is that a ban on exporting Western aircraft parts to Russia, or importing aircraft from Russia, would cut both ways; it would have severe short-term consequences for certain Western suppliers, so the administration is unlikely to try it without broad European support.
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Old July 21, 2014, 05:42 PM   #13
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However, as I said in the other thread- and as JohnKSa posited above- I think that the ban will prove to be effectively permanent. Regardless of the next POTUS's political affiliation, he/she isn't going to want to be the one to undo a ban on so-called "AK-47's".
This is what I have been thinking. Five years from now some one brings up the fact that deadly AK-47s are banned from import from Russian but other countries still send them here. The next step is to ban those other countries too. The reasoning behind it all is lost in the shuffle.
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Old July 21, 2014, 07:08 PM   #14
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And it becomes increasingly easy to argue for the banning of the same rifles here (especially for a Republican president ). The "assault rifle" importation rules were a direct forerunner to the domestic AWB of '94. Be forewarned

Interesting blast from the past regarding the import ban of '89. Sugarmann up to his tricks then, as ever (under a different org pseudonym, of "Firearms Policy Project" of course).

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Old July 22, 2014, 10:47 AM   #15
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So, on the other hand:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2014/...ell-lawmakers/

If the AK is a great gun and the Saiga is a wonder weapon - cannot they be produced totally in the USA? Look at how many companies do ARs (granted behind them are the folks that actually make the parts).

Glock started to make a new 380 as the 25 couldn't come here. So what's the problem? That is independent of bans.
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Old July 22, 2014, 11:13 AM   #16
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If there is enough of a market, and importation is prohibited, it will be made here. Import bans are a trade issue, NOT a gun rights issue.

So long as the law does not prohibit purchase and ownership of the guns already here, or prohibit ownership of guns made here, its not a gun rights issue.

Sure, its upsetting, and foolish. A political statement, without much in the way of teeth. Other than the inconvenience to US buyers, the only thing the ban does is lay political ground work for future restrictions of imports, and they don't need that, they already have plenty.
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Old July 22, 2014, 11:25 AM   #17
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If we ban Vodka from Russia - well, there are artisans producing Vodka that wins awards in TX.

http://www.titosvodka.com/

Caviar:

http://www.californiacaviar.com/

Cuban Cigars - plenty of cigars from other places.

I'm not panicking over Saigas. Maybe Red Jacket will panic and Will will go invade Russia in a home made amphibious tank.
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Old July 22, 2014, 11:48 AM   #18
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The Polish vodka is better anyway...
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Old July 22, 2014, 11:50 AM   #19
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Quote:
Look at how many companies do ARs (granted behind them are the folks that actually make the parts).
Century already makes the C93. It's an American-made rifle built on a milled receiver, and it retails for half the price of an Arsenal build.

There's an interesting parallel to the 1968 GCA. When the GCA outlawed the importation of European pocket pistols, domestic makers stepped up to fill the void.
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Old July 22, 2014, 01:03 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by 44 AMP
If there is enough of a market, and importation is prohibited, it will be made here. Import bans are a trade issue, NOT a gun rights issue.
+1. Actually, it surprises me that nobody makes a domestic AK-pattern box-magazine shotgun already.

However...

I think that this situation is going to trigger (no pun intended...) an all-out buying panic on remaining Saiga-12 shotguns and MOLOT Vepr 12 shotguns. As I pointed out in the other thread, the Vepr 12 isn't banned yet, but you can bet your cookies that every retailer who can get his/her hands on them (which wasn't many retailers BEFORE the Ukraine crisis) will be spreading rumors "from a reliable source" about an impending ban in order to justify >$200 overnight price hikes.

In short, what started out as a $650 shotgun, and then became an $800 shotgun and later a $1,000 shotgun, will now become a $1,500 shotgun. I'm certain that U.S. gunmakers are going to sit up and take notice.
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Old July 22, 2014, 01:20 PM   #21
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So long as the law does not prohibit purchase and ownership of the guns already here, or prohibit ownership of guns made here, its not a gun rights issue.
Can't wrap my brain around that. "the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed" makes no distinction regarding the pedigree of 'Arms'. And of course I have to wonder how much gunpowder burned during the Revolution was produced in the Colonies... no sir, I respectfully disagree. It is an infringement.

Edited to add: Is it an actionable infringement? Not holding my breath
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Old July 22, 2014, 01:38 PM   #22
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Really sad about this order/law, even if it had a good legit purpose..[but]..it does not. I really wanted a Edgun Matador at some point - this may (or may not) put the kaibosh on that.
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Old July 22, 2014, 02:24 PM   #23
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Actually, it surprises me that nobody makes a domestic AK-pattern box-magazine shotgun already.
I wonder if that has to do with cost. When I bought my S12, they were going for somewhere around $500-600. That's one of the cheapest semi autos on the market. I've not been tracking prices, but even if they're up at the $800 mark, that's still going to be a challenge for some makers to hit that price point.

Given the generally awkward nature of AK shotguns, I just don't know how much market there is for it.
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Old July 22, 2014, 11:10 PM   #24
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I wonder if that has to do with cost.
That's the crux of the matter. The main effect is going to be a cost increase due to the reduction in competition from relatively low cost Russian imports.
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Old July 23, 2014, 04:12 AM   #25
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Hopefully someone can set me straight on this issue, but I have been laboring under the conception (or possible misconception/misunderstanding) that imports from Russia have been sanctioned all along, and that all Russian surplus guns and material coming into the U.S. have been from former satellite SSRs and not from Russia itself.
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