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Old March 24, 2013, 10:21 PM   #51
JohnKSa
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I read there is something like 70,000 DHS armed employees not counting Border Patrol. So maybe 100,000 total, max? That would be 16,000 rds per employee or 4,000/yr. for 4 yr contract?
You're on the right track.

The contract was for 4-5 years, and the stated amount is an "UP TO" figure, not an actual ordered quantity.

In addition, DHS has training facilities that are available to all Federal LE agents of which there are somewhere around 150,000 and it appears that this buy is to cover all Federal LE issue & training ammo, not just the DHS proper.

Even if you figure that they actually do buy the entire 1.6 billion which is not at all a sure thing, it only works out to something like 2700-2100 rounds per Federal LEO. Not out of line at all, in my opinion.
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Old March 25, 2013, 01:41 AM   #52
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DISCLAIMER: What follows is just my opinion. I haven't read all the posts on this thread yet, and I apologize if I'm repeating anybody or everybody else that came before me. Here goes-

The world has NOT, repeat NOT, gone mad. However, the saturation of the internet (witness our presence on this forum) has made everyone's madness accessible to other people pretty much worldwide, so that where once upon a time you would be bidding on rare commodities against people from 150 miles away, or MAYBE 1000 at the most, and the process would be an actual auction where people had to physically show up on the day, or send a straw buyer, and buy the junk right there; now people from Florida compete with people from Idaho who compete with people from Alaska, to buy ammo from a guy in Missouri, and bid at the speed of light.

So the end result is that the tiny percentage (.1% maybe?) of shooters who are willing to pay 400% inflated prices can match up with the sellers who charge those prices. And thus the market ends up for a little while in a business model where everyone is in a race to the top, where a bunch of sellers and re-sellers are trying to make as much as they can while it lasts, and those who don't jack their prices up to the sky (like Bass Pro, Cabela's, Legacy, a few others) are sold out and get bad-mouthed all over the internet, because they sold for a fair price- and the only ones who have ammo to sell are the insanely expensive, who couldn't sell it while anybody had any left at a decent price.

Does this make any sense to anyone? It's late and I'm still recovering from a root canal procedure, codeine often seems to lend clarity but it just as often turns your writing to pure BS. Someone please let me know if I'm BSing all over the forum.

But it seems to me that the temporary insanity will end once we- that is, the 99.9%- refuse to indulge the greedy putzes who are trying to gouge us and just don't buy from them. After all, though it seems blasphemous to say it, there are more important things than shooting. I myself have been conserving my ammo so far this year, even though I have 3 new guns since Christmas.

Through patience and no small amount of luck, I managed to score about 1000-1200 rounds for each of my major calibers, at good prices, which should last me the year. I fired just enough to get them broken in nicely, then decided to hold off until the crisis ends. In my mind, that will be when I can once again buy a brick of mini-mags at my LGS. Until then, I will just limit myself to 50 or 100 rounds once a month to keep my hand in, and only buy at what I judge to be a reasonable price. Thus I will feel like I am part of the solution. And sanity will slowly return.

The fact that the AWB was dropped, in a bow to political reality which I've been predicting for months now, will surely help too. But I'm not saying "I told you so." (See? Didn't say it. Specifically said I wasn't saying it. Gracious in victory, that's me. Not saying it, no sir, not me. )
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Old March 25, 2013, 08:14 AM   #53
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Um, yes.....
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Old March 25, 2013, 08:23 AM   #54
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$240/brick winchester

http://alamoammo.com/rifle-ammo/22-long-rifle
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Old March 25, 2013, 11:01 AM   #55
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DHS To Buy 360,000 More Rounds of Hollow Point Ammunition

And Big Sis just keep racking it up!

http://www.infowars.com/dhs-to-buy-3...nt-ammunition/
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Old March 25, 2013, 05:45 PM   #56
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The RUMOR I heard yesterday at the trap club is that the US Govt. is buying up and hoarding ammo -- to drive up the price and discourage people from RKBA.

Trap ammo -- 12 gauge, low base, 1 oz. light load, 7 1/2 - 8 birdshot -- which the club purchases by the truck load -- seems to be available and holding steady on price. But then, it's not on the "list."


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Old March 25, 2013, 06:11 PM   #57
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I don't see the "we should boycot until the prices come down, they are too high because we keep buy.....etc etc, bit.
And I sure as heck ain't gonna stop shooting. You can if you want.
But you're already boycotting, you said it yourself. It's doubtless nobody is suggesting to stop shooting, only to quit paying the outrageous premiums tagged on todays ammo and components. If you do that and instead shoot what you stocked up on over the years, you're still boycotting. The new shooters with new guns aren't going to "stock up" at these prices; if so, they have more money than brains, and their purchases alone won't keep these prices artificially high for too much longer. I also can wait this out, in fact I'd probably wait this out if I had zero ammo on hand.
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Old March 25, 2013, 06:16 PM   #58
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NWPilgrim

Has the world gone mad??
I read there is something like 70,000 DHS armed employees not counting Border Patrol. So maybe 100,000 total, max? That would be 16,000 rds per employee or 4,000/yr. for 4 yr contract?

I seriously doubt every single armed employee gets the chance to shoot anywhere 1,000 rds/yr let alone 4,000. Seems like way more being contracted for than they could even hope in their dreams to use for employee training.

And why the stonewalling? If there was no hidden agenda why not just quote previous years usage to establish need?
Very well said.

And today again we see yet another solicitation on the Federal Business Opportunities website:

https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportun...=core&_cview=0

It details the DHS’ plan to purchase 360,000 rounds of “Commercial leaded training ammo (CLTA) Pistol .40 caliber 165 grain, jacketed hollow point.” The bullets are to be delivered to the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center in Artesia, New Mexico, the same destination for 240,000 hollow point rounds which were purchased only last month. And of course this is in addition to the millions of rounds previously purchased...
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Old March 25, 2013, 08:45 PM   #59
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The RUMOR I heard yesterday at the trap club is that the US Govt. is buying up and hoarding ammo -- to drive up the price and discourage people from RKBA.

Trap ammo -- 12 gauge, low base, 1 oz. light load, 7 1/2 - 8 birdshot -- which the club purchases by the truck load -- seems to be available and holding steady on price. But then, it's not on the "list."
Are #11 percussion caps on the "list", how about .22 ammo? I personally think that shotgun ammo just escaped being caught up in the hoarding vicious circle out of pure luck because they had enough backstock to keep the shelves full and that cooled off the panic.
Ammo zombies buy up ammo "while they can" because the shelves are nearly empty and compound the problem.

On 9-11-01, several gas stations sold out of gas where I live. Thankfully, it's hard to hoard a significant amount of gasoline and the situation did not spiral out of control.
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Old March 25, 2013, 11:09 PM   #60
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And why the stonewalling? If there was no hidden agenda why not just quote previous years usage to establish need?
If you poke around, you'll find exactly such a quotation provided in writing to a senator who requested the data.

Their ammunition usage has actually been dropping over the time period quoted--something like 3-4 years.

As others have pointed out, until DHS starts buying .22LR, .22WMR, Percussion caps, etc., it's pretty obvious that their orders are not what is causing the shortage. Certainly anyone using ammo is contributing to the shortage, but based on the information I've seen DHS ammunition usage and orders are not out of line compared to past history.
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Old March 26, 2013, 01:13 AM   #61
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OK, the clearest and latest statistics I found on a quick search found a ratio of 2.4 sworn LEOs per 1000 population in the 2009 DOJ report.

The 2007 Small Arms Survey reported handgun ownership in the USA was 888 handguns per 1000 citizens (explicable by the fact that very often multiple guns are owned by one person).

So even if we assume an average 4 handguns per person, that's still 200 times the rate of civilian vs LEO guns.

Do we have any reason to assume that civilian ammunition sales are not similarly hundreds of times the rate of government purchases? The guns & ammo industry is close to $4 BILLION dollars yearly and is doing nothing but going up. And yet some DHS purchase orders for a few hundred MILLION dollars are somehow indicative of a secret plot? (That's if I read your posts right John and it was 1.6 billion rounds being contracted for, which at govt. rates would be something like $500-750K?)

John, I don't know if anyone else has brought this up, but I find the evidence lacking. I think what we had was a perfect storm, if you will- a Democrat reelected, fanning fears that a 'secret plan to ban guns' (which Wayne LaPierre talked about all too readily all through the election cycle) was about to be put in place- then the shooting in Colorado- followed by Sandy Hook, both incidents which sickened all right-thinking people, but which also added extra panic for those who saw false-flag operations wherever they looked. And the great thing about conspiracies and cover-ups is, any evidence that contradicts the conspiracy theory is just evidence of how effective the cover-up is.

I will continue to maintain that it is civilian sales in this panic-stricken environment that drove the shortage- and as long as the panic lasts, so will the shortage. So please, REMAIN CALM and everything will get back to normal. Although prices, now, will never get back down to quite where they were in the good old days of last September.
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Old March 28, 2013, 01:05 AM   #62
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Why can't the suppliers Natchez, Midsouth, Midway, whomever tell us when they suspect to be supplied with ammo, particularly 22 rimfire. What the manufacturers don't know? Who the hell are managing these companies?

Ohh we are so busy that we can't spend a half hour posting a projected resupply estimate?

They are helping to extend the panic with their incommunicado websites.

This is what we get from the manufacturers and suppliers ---> Sorry for the inconvenience, but due to the large demand for our products you all can crap in one hand and wish in the other.

You go to Remington and Winchester websites and there is nothing that I can see posted about the lack of ammo, just a bunch of fluff and glitter. These companies are ...holes.

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Old March 28, 2013, 05:33 AM   #63
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From the NRA's website. I think I trust them a bit more than Infowars.

http://www.nraila.org/news-issues/ar...mmunition.aspx

And another article explaining how the contracts work.

http://militarytimes.com/blogs/gears...not-worry-you/

The Gov't isn't buying all of the ammo to keep it out of our hands. Gun owners that are hoarding ammo are the ones to blame.
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Old March 28, 2013, 06:10 AM   #64
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Hoarding? well that brings up a conversation that I had with a friend that doesn't target practice. He mentioned that he had bought a box of 100 CCI 22 rim before the frenzy, while his buddy bought a brick. He couldn't imagine shooting 500 rounds of 22 rim out of his 22 at "squirrels" in the remainder of his life. He's 61

Well with that logic How many rounds of centerfire do I shoot at deer per year, if I have more than 20, Am I hoarding, stockpiling?
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Old March 28, 2013, 10:43 AM   #65
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjVqZ...layer_embedded

This guy hits the nail on the head. It's not that there's an ammo shortage, its that people are hoarding it and trying to re-sell it.

The companies are still making it...probably making more per day. The internet fuels the frenzy and now, instead of grabbing a box or 5 when needed, they're grabbing everything and reselling it before you get off of work and over to the gun store.

We are our own worst enemy...
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Old March 28, 2013, 10:55 AM   #66
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Why can't the suppliers Natchez, Midsouth, Midway, whomever tell us when they suspect to be supplied with ammo, particularly 22 rimfire. What the manufacturers don't know? Who the hell are managing these companies?
They are resupplied on a regular basis. The problem is the minute they put ammo online it is gone. I see it over and over. I monitor a couple of websites that keep up to the minute data on stores ammo stock. As soon as something comes up that I want at a decent price I'll click over and buy. Quite often I can't even get through the order process before they are out of stock again. I've been able to get about 1500 9mm and 2500 .22 as well as 38 and 357 in the last couple of months. It is out there but you have to be quick.

And we are the problem, not the gubmint. I have been just as much of the problem as everyone else. I've been stocking up because it's been so hard to find. It's been so hard to find because everyone is stocking up.
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Old March 28, 2013, 11:00 AM   #67
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IS he (link above) trying to say that Midway can't get its supply of 22 rimfire because someone is getting the ammo before them. That sounds, shall we say very unlikely.

Well southjk that explains it better than a break in the supply line, you buy it the minute it is available.

I'd think that the major suppliers manufacturers should communicate with their customers through the websites etc. AND tell us that they are producing as much as always and someone like midway should tell their customers that they are selling as much as ever.

Instead of this BS with them just putting up an out of stock notice on their inventories

And further I'd hazard to say that the suppliers like Midway are enjoying this frenzy and they want people hitting their websites looking for out-of-stock items because we might also buy something else that we don't need, like a gunsling, some miscellaneous crap.

They are purposely leaving us in the dark, so as to sell more of their crap.

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Old March 28, 2013, 02:16 PM   #68
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There's always ammo at the gun shows.
Show vendors are pros at buying on both the wholesale market and in mass market retail stores. They do this for a living and make it on the spread.
Once saturation is achieved things will return to some semblance of normal.

IMO
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Old March 28, 2013, 02:35 PM   #69
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Once saturation is achieved things will return to some semblance of normal.*..
Yeah--Let me know when that is. ..?
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Old March 28, 2013, 04:08 PM   #70
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Yeah--Let me know when that is. ..?
It's coming - the Hampton, VA gun show this past weekend had a bunch of 5.56mm ammo for $.50 - $.60 per round, down from the nearly $1/round it had been for a while. The vendors are starting to get the big shipments they've been waiting on.
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Old March 28, 2013, 05:26 PM   #71
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It's coming - the Hampton, VA gun show this past weekend had a bunch of 5.56mm ammo for $.50 - $.60 per round, down from the nearly $1/round it had been for a while. The vendors are starting to get the big shipments they've been waiting on.
I sure hope you guys are right! This madness is surreal...
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Old March 28, 2013, 05:27 PM   #72
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Benefit from all this

If 22 rimfires become more expensive than 38/9 m/m cast reloads, do the reloads, you have been forewarned by the frenzy.
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Old March 28, 2013, 05:42 PM   #73
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I may just take the year off from ammo and arms purchases.
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Old March 28, 2013, 09:40 PM   #74
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Kudos to southjk for 'fessing up to being 'part of the problem', in his own words. You're right, south, we are our own enemies.

I had a pm chat on another forum with a member who was griping that he had "only" been able to pick up 3000 rounds of the caliber we were discussing, which made me wonder what he considered a sufficient supply, since I have "only" about 1200 rounds of the same caliber. I once had 1400, but in the course of breaking in my FN Five-SeveN (My secret's out! OK, we were on a 5.7mm ammo forum) I fired 9 magazines through her, i.e. 180 rounds. And between setting out targets and reloading magazines, it took the better part of 2 hours. Adding in travel time to & from my "range" (the in-laws' back 40), packing up before & after, and cleaning the weapon, let's call it 4 hours.

I'm lucky if I can find 4 hours to devote to shooting more than once every 6-8 weeks, so on that basis, the ammo that I have left should last until about this time next year- if I only shoot the 5-7 (and I'm going to shoot my 357 SIGs at least every other time anyway) and if I shoot 9 full mags every time (which I won't, my thumb gets tired reloading).

So I feel my 11 boxes of Vmax 5.7mm and 14 boxes of FMJ are going to be plenty to meet my needs- so much so that I'm selling some on to a friend who hasn't been able to find any.

I had a point when I started out here.... Oh yeah. We shooters like to say we are a community, but we often don't act like it. Individually, we have a tendency to look out for #1 more than we want to admit. I'm not criticizing you personally, south, honest I'm not, because really the quantities you mention aren't so much and I'm sure you get out and shoot more than I do- probably a lot of people do. But the point has been made on this thread that there are people who live by cruising the online suppliers, buying 15-30000 rounds at a time, then reselling for 3x profit.

Is this supply and demand capitalism, or is it predatory behavior? I know which way I'm leaning, but everyone has a right to their own opinion. I just know I have infinitely more respect for those individuals (not talking about actual business owners here, obviously) who buy ammo/guns/etc to keep and use for themselves, than I do for the money-grubbers who want to profit from their brothers' sweat.

On that topic, last year I needed to raise some quick money, so I sold a 9mm SIG P239. One friend at work, whose eyes lit up when I told him what I was looking to sell, offered me $300 cash for it. Another offered me $150 and, when my eyebrows went up, told me he had to give me a price where he could make some money when he re-sold my gun. Guess who I sold to. And he LOVED that gun.
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Old March 28, 2013, 10:27 PM   #75
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DarthPaul,

Good post with IMO some very insightful comments. But I think there is more to it than simple greed/economics. What we are witnessing as I see it is absolute paranoia about the future of the Country as we know it which renders logic null and void--People genuinely feel as though their Constitutional rights are being at the very least "compromised" and prepare accordingly before the 'party is over.' As you stated, sure there are people who will seek to profit absent any conscience or ethics whatsoever but that has been the case since biblical times (not to condone of it but such is the ugly side of human nature).

We are living in some of the most turbulent times in the Nation's history with no apparent indications of light at the end of the proverbial tunnel. Honestly, if you even objectively look at the events taking place in Washington with the DHS Domestic Military Buildup (for what...? I rhetorically ask), Congressional, Executive (and State) push for unprecedented Gun-Control (I mean a Shotgun defined as an "Assault Weapon" ), a downward spiraling economy, a world on the precipice of War, Inflation (Electric, Gasoline, Food), Medical Costs, etc. etc. etc. is it really any wonder why people are "in the buying mood."

That said, I hope I am 100% proven wrong and things within this (IMO once great and proud) Nation improve to heights never before seen!
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