A Note of Caution From My Favorite LGS

[Rifleman1952]

This following note appeared in an advertisement from my favorite LGS, one that has been in business for 28 years and has always offered fair prices and good service:

"Dear Loyal Customers.
We appreciate your years of loyal patronage and would like to have a heart to heart with you. It's going to get worse before it gets better. You are going to see lots of gun stores crippled in 2013 from lack of product. If you want to be angry, then be angry at our government. They are the leading force behind the panic that has brought us to this point. We are buying product from everyone and everywhere in an attempt to supply all of you with the same amount and quality of product as you are accustomed to. However, we are paying more for many products than we sold them for last year. We are doing our best to keep our margins slim. This will be the hardest year to run this business in the 28 years we have been around. Shortages will include, but are not limited to: 223, 5.56, 9mm, 380, 40 S&W, 308, 45 ACP, 22LR and all military surplus ammo, AR-15's, handguns, home defense shotguns, primers, powder, dies, loaders, magazines, clips, accessories and gun safes. These items make up the majority of our business, so the shortage will make it difficult for us to keep our shelves stocked. We would be lying if we said we weren't relying on your loyalty to get us through this. Maybe the government knew how many thousands of guns dealers this massive shortage will cripple. It makes you wonder if that wasn't the plan all along. Please have patience with us while we do everything we can to to be our best for you."

It appears that Feinstien's bill will not make it through either house to become law, as it is currently written. I was hoping, perhaps, the worst was over, but I keep hearing from people who work in the firearms industry, that it is far from over. Keep writing your legislators, keep talking to friends and family members. Now is not the time for us to relax.

[Tom Servo]

Maybe the government knew how many thousands of guns dealers this massive shortage will cripple. It makes you wonder if that wasn't the plan all along.

I don't see a conspiracy there. While the current situation is difficult from a supply and cashflow standpoint, I'm sure he's banked all the money he made in December. If a dealer gets "crippled" by the current situation, it's because of a lack of preparation.

It's not as if the industry didn't have a similar situation four years ago.

[Rifleman1952]

Tom, I think you might be missing the gist of the note. The focus was on the current status of the market in guns & ammo. Only one line referenced conspiratorial intent by the government and was asked as a question. The shortages four years ago weren't nearly as bad as they are now. Yes, a smart business man would definitely have set aside funds during the feast, and I guess only time will tell how many guns & ammo stores survive during the coming famine.

[TXAZ]

This likely will start to get much better first of next month: If Sequestration goes through, many DoD components will let up on demand for firearms related components. The natural industry response would be to support some of these areas as fill-in production, which should increase supply to the current civilian demand.

[Skadoosh]

If Sequestration goes through, many DoD components will let up on demand for firearms related components. The natural industry response would be to support some of these areas as fill-in production, which should increase supply to the current civilian demand.

Interesting thought. But how much actual demand is the military responsible for?

[UtahHunting]

I dont think the government is buying. 22 ammo

[Aguila Blanca]

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

It's not as if the industry didn't have a similar situation four years ago.

Tom, it's FAR worse than it was four years ago. Four years ago, if I went into a Wal-Mart they probably wouldn't have any .45 ACP, but there were always at least a few boxes of some handgun ammo on the shelf -- maybe .44 Magnum and .357 Magnum, and there were always a few boxes of .32 Auto and a couple of others.

I was in a large and newly-renovated Wal-Mart just 36 hours ago. I wandered by the ammo case out of curiosity. It was STRIPPED. There were a few boxes of shotgun shells (bird shot only, no buck), maybe two boxes of .17 HMR, and one box of .22-250.

That was IT. It was never that bad four years ago. Not even close.

[Webleymkv]

I dont think the government is buying. 22 ammo

Perhaps not, but .22 ammo uses the same raw materials, workforce, and production facilities as 9mm, 5.56, 7.62x51, .50 BMG and all the other ammo that the government is buying.

[UtahHunting]

Perhaps not, but .22 ammo uses the same raw materials, workforce, and production facilities as 9mm, 5.56, 7.62x51, .50 BMG and all the other ammo that the government is buying.

You do bring up a valid point. I didn't think it could get worse than the 2009 shortage but here we are again. I am hoping things will settle down in the near future.

[Hunter Customs]

Well it seems the Department of Homeland Security is sure purchasing a lot of 9mm and 40 pistol ammo.
They are about to add another 21.6 million rounds to the 1.6 billion they already purchased.

I can't say this is because of a conspiracy, but I do believe it may be time to question our representatives and senators as to why a federal agency such as DHS needs that amount of ammo.

Best Regards
Bob Hunter
www.huntercustoms.com

[cryogenic419]

I seem to recall it being this bad 4 years ago. I would hit up Cabelas, Bass Pro, all the Walmarts and other like stores, and LGS and remember seeing nothing but 12ga birdshot and 357 sig Winchester white box and some assorted oddball rifle calibers.

Same would go for guns, anything in 9mm, .40, .45, .380, .38, .357, .44, .223, .308 was pretty much out of stock for damn near a year.

Magzines...same thing. Anything for popular guns like Glock, Sig, S&W, Taurus, Springfield XD's, AR/AK's were extremely hard to find for a long time. Unless you were looking for 10 rounders but even then sometimes they would be out of those.

I think it has expanded to other areas this time around....I remember being able to find common sized dies back then, now I know of some folks looking for .223 dies who can't seem to find them locally or on Midway.

I think the perceived threat dissipated quick last time because nobody really came out or did anything last time and the shortages did not last too awfully long. This time around we have a bunch of tragic events backed up by a vocal and unapologetic group of politicians who have introduced an insane number of bills, some of which seems to have some slight chance in hell of passing. I hope I'm wrong on that. I don't see this shortage letting up any sooner than the previous one.

You have to know that the gun and ammo companies are doing all they can to pump out as much product as they can...they know its times like these where they can clean up as far as profits go. Keep in mind the machinery is only capable of so much, there are only so many hours in a day, so many days in a week.

[AH.74]

If a dealer gets "crippled" by the current situation, it's because of a lack of preparation.

Many times over the past several weeks I've seen people mention that they've never seen anything like this in their lives. This coming from some who have been around far longer than I have, and some in the industry for many years as well.

I think it's very easy to talk about planning for this, when in reality it is not something that could have been foreseen or planned for at all.

Were we supposed to predict that such a mass panic effect would have ensued? Would it have been different if there were not so many children as victims?

[Tom Servo]

Were we supposed to predict that such a mass panic effect would have ensued?

Nobody could have predicted it, but we can control how we handle it.

From the retailer perspective, you've got a lot of folks who saw the situation as a short-term windfall of epic proportions. They sold everything they had without hedging for the future. The numbers looked great at the end of December, but if they didn't get the backorders in the week after Sandy Hook, they're dealing with empty shelves and dismal cash flow.

It's like gasoline an non-perishable food. When a disaster strikes, you have to ration.

On the ground, the situation is likely to be rough until April or May. Manufacturers are struggling to come back from total outages. That's assuming we don't have another crisis.

[AH.74]

I suppose you're right about selling everything you have, but when you have customers clamoring for things with cash in hand, it's hard to turn away sales which are right there in front of you.

I do hope the places having trouble can hang in there.

[sigcurious]

Hrm...I can't compare to 4 years ago, but things seem to have leveled out by me. Past few times at the LGSs, at least there was ammo on the shelves not a full selection, but more than a couple weeks ago.

[Tom Servo]

I suppose you're right about selling everything you have, but when you have customers clamoring for things with cash in hand, it's hard to turn away sales which are right there in front of you.

I can certainly understand, but things are tricky right now. In some cases, retailers are having to write checks ahead of time to get product. That ties up cash. Furthermore, if a dealer sells everything he has this month and doesn't have the product next month, he's got no cash flow on top of that. Margins are low at the best of times, and things like making the payroll can get tough fast.

Rationing is one part of the equation. The only alternative is to raise prices through the roof. Guess which the public will hate less.

Supply is coming. If folks absolutely have to have certain items right now before the ban/apocalypse/whatever, they're dealing with the market a panic creates. They are perpetuating the problem.

My advice is to wait it out. This will pass. The only difference between this and 2009 is a matter of scale.

[Double Naught Spy]

I have come to take notes of caution from gun shops with a grain of salt. I have to agree that the conspiracy government query (not really a query except maybe in the rhetorical sense) is weird. Now that they have made their profit, they are asking the customers to help them make it through. I am not sure how that is supposed to work.

No it was not this bad 4 years ago (but my Walmart did have stripped shelves for months), but most gun shops like apparently so many gun owners didn't learn their lesson last time. So it is worse now and that aspect is heightened by the lack of preparation.