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Old February 15, 2013, 02:42 PM   #1
horatioo
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If you wanted to profit from shortages

I think this shortage of guns, ammo, etc will most likely end someday. I also think there will be another shortage after this as many people dont learn. What thing have been pretty cheap before this type of shortage, but sell for a lot now? What would a person buy during good times to sell at times like this?
Is anything gun related going to work or are somethings better then others?

I dont know anything about reloadiing, but I heard that primers are in short suppply now and will last forever if kept right. Would they be a good thing to try and make money with?

I dont see anything unethical about this. Its really no different from buying stocks when they are cheap and hoping to resell if price goes up. So if anyone has an ethical objection to this please explain.

Thanks
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Old February 15, 2013, 04:08 PM   #2
southjk
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I don't have a problem with it at all if you are trying to sell something I don't want but if you are hoarding things I need and over charging when they are in short supply then you are a SOB.
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Old February 15, 2013, 04:20 PM   #3
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Sounds like long shot to pay off.. Not that it wouldn't eventually, but the time vs. profit ratio might be better invested.

The only argument I can think of against it is that for some, firearms are used for self defense, so hoarding the supply would be like hoarding food and selling it to starving people for inflated prices.. But that argument vaguely applies.
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Old February 15, 2013, 04:42 PM   #4
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Re: If you wanted to profit from shortages

If you "horde" when supplies are plentiful and then bring them to market during a time of shortage you are doing everyone a great service. To those who think it's unfair to charge the market price in times of shortage I'd remind you that this sort of investment carries significant costs and risks. Storage isn't free, the money invested could have been used for something else, the stored goods could be damaged or stolen etc.

That said this sounds like "preparing to fight the last war" and you'd probably be better served by looking for the NEXT thing that might be in short supply rather than the current thing.

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Old February 15, 2013, 05:22 PM   #5
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Unless you're going to stock major distributor size quantities, how much are you really going to make off of "gun stuff"?

How much do you have to invest? Let's say $1000.

So, back when they were $14, you picked up 71 Pmags. Now you can get $40. Okay, you made $1840. More than doubling your money but you had that $1000 tied up. And it took a 'black swan', the Newtown shooting and subsequent buying frenzy, to make your investment pay off. Even after the election time shortages started, nothing had gotten really scarce or expensive until then.

Or maybe you go for primers, they keep, right? So you get Tula in bulk when they're $20/thousand. After shipping and hazmat, your $1000 gets you say, 8 cases of 5,000. I don't know what Tulas or going for, but let's say $50/K. So you double your money to $2000. But again, your money was tied up and you you didn't have any profit potential until something extraordinary happened. Oh, and selling that many primers....are you a dealer now? Do you need a license? For that matter, were they legally stored by the fire code? And what if your basement flooded while you were waiting for the price to spike?

So sure, you can buy and hope for something to drive prices up, but how long are you willing to wait and how much money are you willing to tie up? If you had bought those 71 Pmags back in 2010 you would've probably gotten sick of sitting on them before January 2013. And what if Feinstein's fantasy came true and they became illegal to sell and thus literally worthless?

I buy in pretty good lot sizes but I do it to protect myself from future price increases and scarcity, not to resell later. Not enough potential upside, too much potential downside, IMO.
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Old February 15, 2013, 05:36 PM   #6
horatioo
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Quote:
So, back when they were $14, you picked up 71 Pmags. Now you can get $40. Okay, you made $1840. More than doubling your money but you had that $1000 tied up. And it took a 'black swan', the Newtown shooting and subsequent buying frenzy, to make your investment pay off. Even after the election time shortages started, nothing had gotten really scarce or expensive until then.

Or maybe you go for primers, they keep, right? So you get Tula in bulk when they're $20/thousand. After shipping and hazmat, your $1000 gets you say, 8 cases of 5,000. I don't know what Tulas or going for, but let's say $50/K. So you double your money to $2000. But again, your money was tied up and you you didn't have any profit potential until something extraordinary happened. Oh, and selling that many primers....are you a dealer now? Do you need a license? For that matter, were they legally stored by the fire code? And what if your basement flooded while you were waiting for the price to spike?

So sure, you can buy and hope for something to drive prices up, but how long are you willing to wait and how much money are you willing to tie up? If you had bought those 71 Pmags back in 2010 you would've probably gotten sick of sitting on them before January 2013. And what if Feinstein's fantasy came true and they became illegal to sell and thus literally worthless?
compare this to buying shares in wmt or xom or any other stock. I dont think you need to be a dealer to sell $1000 worth of primers. Magazines could be sold on craigslist. Certainly things could go awry and new laws might prohibit me selling them in the future, but a company can go bankrupt making that stock worthless also.

Gun scares and shortages seem pretty common place now. If this one ends there will certainly be another one. The anti gun people are not going away. Also the stuff would probably at the very least hold value, unless 3d printers become available.

Last edited by horatioo; February 15, 2013 at 06:51 PM.
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Old February 15, 2013, 06:03 PM   #7
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HORATIOO: You say the anti-gunners are going away ???
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Old February 15, 2013, 06:44 PM   #8
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if you are hoarding things I need and over charging when they are in short supply then you are a SOB
It's called capitalism. Buy when available and cheap and sell high when in short supply.

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Old February 15, 2013, 06:51 PM   #9
horatioo
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meant "not going away"
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Old February 15, 2013, 07:24 PM   #10
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Keep in mind that primers must be shipped by a Haz Mat shipper. Just putting them in a USPS flat rate box is taking a chance having them intercepted and confiscated at best, or earn you a couple years as a guest of the federal prison system worst case.

Let's say you sell the primer hoard on gunbroker, which is a part of the public view. Very easy for a postal inspector to see who is selling and how they are sending. Is the risk worth the reward?

To go further, say you buy up a few AR's to keep until the next panic. You have no FFL. When the next panic hits you start pulling them out and selling them. Will it get you noticed by the ATF? They really hate it when a private citizen becomes a gun dealer without telling them.

So to make enough money to make your endeavour worthwhile you would have to spend a lot of money that you will not miss, warehouse the goods legally and safely, and then sell when the time is right. Mistakes in any of those three actions could get you noticed.
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Old February 15, 2013, 07:52 PM   #11
DASHZNT
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Re: If you wanted to profit from shortages

Quote:
Originally Posted by rlc323 View Post
Keep in mind that primers must be shipped by a Haz Mat shipper. Just putting them in a USPS flat rate box is taking a chance having them intercepted and confiscated at best, or earn you a couple years as a guest of the federal prison system worst case.

Let's say you sell the primer hoard on gunbroker, which is a part of the public view. Very easy for a postal inspector to see who is selling and how they are sending. Is the risk worth the reward?

To go further, say you buy up a few AR's to keep until the next panic. You have no FFL. When the next panic hits you start pulling them out and selling them. Will it get you noticed by the ATF? They really hate it when a private citizen becomes a gun dealer without telling them.

So to make enough money to make your endeavour worthwhile you would have to spend a lot of money that you will not miss, warehouse the goods legally and safely, and then sell when the time is right. Mistakes in any of those three actions could get you noticed.
Exactly why you ship it to an FFL and it become their problem to make sure it gets in responsible hands. Once youre paid and have done that, your hands are clean. Primers need to be shipped wirh haz mat which is incurred by the buyer or setup a local deal to swap. Im not happy with the "aftermarket" prices either but I am patient and have amassed enough, although everytime i see something i want im not complete till i have it.

Bottom Line.. Quit crying and buy at the prices youre comfy with and when theyre readily available, buy a little more than just enough every chance you have withoit goin overboard with it and youll be ahead of any shortage and wont be ranting an raving.
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Old February 15, 2013, 07:54 PM   #12
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I don't NEED anythig,, I learned a thing or two the last time '08...So do as you wish though I hope you have to EAT them & with a little gravy on em they might not taste too bad to ya..
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Old February 15, 2013, 08:54 PM   #13
DASHZNT
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Re: If you wanted to profit from shortages

Quote:
Originally Posted by YARDDOG(1) View Post
I don't NEED anythig,, I learned a thing or two the last time '08...So do as you wish though I hope you have to EAT them & with a little gravy on em they might not taste too bad to ya..
Y/D
HaHaHaHaHa!!!! CryBaby!! Geez, I have the sole intention to use everything I own supplies wise and build every AR reciever I own as well and I NEED every pmag i own as well because I hate reloading everytime i rip thru 30, thats why its better to have 30 mags ready to go, it makes for more fun time.. thats why I bought them to begin with.
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Old February 15, 2013, 09:06 PM   #14
bigalshootmupper
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I am not a proponent of hording or trying to rip people off, but I think it is good that average citizens buy up ammo or mags and sell them at times like this. I don't partake in the high prices, but it is not just people selling high, it is also corporations. If more people horded ammo, then at times like these, these people could sell, bringing in more supply, therefore lowering the prices back to reasonable prices.

If you think about it, if more people bought more supply to horde during normal times, the ammo manufacturers would increase their normal production, because the normal buying would be higher. Then, when demand increases like it is now, it is not as significant of a demand increase, and prices aren't as high.

But, if you average out the price over a long time period, the average is what the average price should be. So, it will come down, just not back to the original levels.
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Old February 15, 2013, 09:35 PM   #15
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[QUOTE](DASHZNT) HaHaHaHaHa!!!! CryBaby!! Geez, I have the sole intention to use everything I own supplies wise and build every AR reciever I own as well and I NEED every pmag i own as well because I hate reloading everytime i rip thru 30, thats why its better to have 30 mags ready to go, it makes for more fun time.. thats why I bought them to begin with.[QUOTE]

That was a little funnin with the OP, Not you,,,As far as Reloading I Love it ; )
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Old February 15, 2013, 09:54 PM   #16
kilimanjaro
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If I have an excess of something, now would be a good time to sell some of it, but I buy for what I need, not to potentially profit at some later date. Hoarding for need is fine, hoarding for profit is a sin.
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Old February 15, 2013, 11:49 PM   #17
Mac Sidewinder
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If I want to hoard, (I prefer the word invest) in a product hoping someday that the price will increase and I can sell for a profit, thats called free market capitalism. Just because it happens to be something you use and now you can't find any doesn't make it evil!

Let's say I bought large amounts of this product when times were good (and you could buy as much as you wanted also) and stored it away. If supplies run short and the price goes up, I should be able to sell it for how much the market will support.

I'm so sick and tired of seeing people cry bloody murder because what they want now is selling for 2 to 3 times it did before. Guess what people, if you don't want to pay that much for it, don't!

The prices will come down eventually. Most people should have seen this coming and prepared ahead of time. Like the saying goes, "Bad planning on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part."

End of rant
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Old February 15, 2013, 11:57 PM   #18
horatioo
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so my main question is what would I buy to resell? I ask now when prices are high because I want to start looking at stuff and see how and where they sell and for how much. I like guns but am more of a casual shooter. What has gone up the most percentage wise that would be easy to store long term? I didnt realize primers were hazmat. I am sure I dont know lots of things, hence the questions.

Maybe magazines? Still maybe primers? Maybe the cheap AK47's? Has anything tripled in price the last few months?

Thanks
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Old February 16, 2013, 12:21 AM   #19
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2008...

I spoke to a old friend a few weeks ago & he reminded me of our plan to start a small business: Down Range Depot. This around 2008. We'd be rich right now.

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Old February 16, 2013, 01:23 AM   #20
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I've been thinking the same thing. Instead of running a business all year long, just stockpile inventory for 3-4 years for the next panic. If you can buy in large enough quantity ($10K? $20K? more?) to get a discount then you are likely to be able to sell at profit eventually, and if another periodic panic happens along you may sell your inventory in a couple of months at a much more rewarding margin.

The more people selling in a drought the lower the price becomes. Prices get ridiculous when there are not enough sellers.

Popular primers and powders are always in demand: small rifle and small pistol primers, H335 and Varget powders for example. Any common ammo would also sell easily. You just have to get set up with the proper storage, licensing, shipping. Could be expensive and a hassle but that means fewer competitors.

Easier items to sell would be bullets, magazines, bolt carrier groups or just bolts, Magpul followers (try to find them now), etc. The is question is how many of an item you need to buy at a time to get a discount price? I suspect you would have to buy bullets in the 100,000+ range. Magazines? Bulky but also guaranteed to be the most likely at-risk item. Pistol mags are smaller so you could stock more in a smaller space. If you could accumulate 500 Glock mags at $20/ea (discount) that would be $10K investment. If there is another gun law scare you could sell them easily for $35 and make a profit of $7,500. It took you maybe a week's effort to buy the mags in bulk, store them, and get set up for eventual re-sell. Then you probably work one weekend gun show to sell them. Not bad. Worse case is you sell them on eBay over time for $26 and make a smaller profit of $3,000.

The problem is that if you are starting small scale (less than $100K or more) you never build up a sustaining business. But as a hobby business that takes a small amount of time you could pull in a tidy sum every few years. And you could sell for somewhat less than scalping prices and actually help to moderate prices locally rather than contribute to the problem as another buyer driving up demand.
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Old February 16, 2013, 02:51 AM   #21
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I have seen many threads in other forums where wars raged about "gouging" and "rip-off" vs taking advantage of supply and demand. I won't make moral judgments.

I am stocking up to see my needs in case of other shortages (food, water, toilet paper, batteries, etc). I will stock things for my family's needs, and have no intentions of selling at a profit. That's just how I am.
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Old February 16, 2013, 04:28 AM   #22
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I don't stock for the purpose of reselling either, but I do try to keep a fair amount of ammo on hand. I was able to buy 9mm WWB at $5 about 1 years ago. The lowest I have seen it is around $14 a box now. That is a 180% increase which represents an average gain of 15% a year over the past 12 years (non-compounding of course). Most people would be pretty happy with that.

I had purchased 6 cases of it at that price but I wish I had bought more. Those 6 cases are ancient history and I'm sure I would have gone through 12 cases by now. At that price, I could have easily bought 100 cases and been set for a long while. :-( woulda, shoulda, coulda... But didn't.
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Old February 16, 2013, 11:58 AM   #23
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I believe we will recover from this shortage. Maybe even sooner than we expect. I do however believer that THEY are COMING for our guns and that we can expect another such shortage in the not too distant future. We may not recover from that one. IMO.
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Old February 17, 2013, 11:20 AM   #24
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So if you plan for a shortage and to make a buck, do you join antigun organizations and lobby for antigun bills as part of your genius marking plan?

It's not unethical under the free market system - is it?

Please send donations to the Joe Biden for President PAC.
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Old February 17, 2013, 11:25 AM   #25
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I don't know what Tulas or going for, but let's say $50/K.
I hate to break it to you, but they are still going for $19/1000. Got 7K from Natchez last week.

Quote:
HaHaHaHaHa!!!! CryBaby!! Geez, I have the sole intention to use everything I own supplies wise and build every AR reciever I own as well and I NEED every pmag i own as well because I hate reloading everytime i rip thru 30, thats why its better to have 30 mags ready to go, it makes for more fun time.. thats why I bought them to begin with.
I guess that's why you're asking $200 per 1000 .223 cases...
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