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Old January 14, 2013, 01:17 AM   #1
mrbatchelor
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Violent crime correlated to lead gasoline?

Ok, I realize this isn't a strictly scientific journal, but the premiss is at least plausible.

After all we're breaking our butts to figure out why a few nut cases are causing us so much grief.

http://www.motherjones.com/environme...-link-gasoline

Granted this is not about school shootings. It's about violent crime in general, but that's part of the anti-2A argument, that guns cause crime. Maybe it isn't guns.

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Old January 14, 2013, 01:43 AM   #2
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"Hey, Bob. Let's go dig through thousands of graphs, until we find one that somewhat follows this violent crime graph."




I mean no offense, mrbatchelor. It's just that Mother Jones cannot be trusted, and their "correlations" are often quite dubious.
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Old January 14, 2013, 01:59 AM   #3
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I'm also sure there's a graph that'll prove FrankenMausers point
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Old January 14, 2013, 02:10 AM   #4
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The digging for why lunatics do things is what confuses me. Its pretty simple if you think about it.
Cave men killed other cave men for rocks or women or dino teeth or whatever.
Heck even Chimp packs attack other monkeys and kill them just to be killing them.
There are just crazy, mean, and other wise unpleasant folks in the world that get their jollies killing people for whatever reason. Or no reason at all. Always have been always will be. Good folks either fight them off or die.

All the gas sniffers Ive ever seen were passed out shortly or died and werent much of a threat to anyone.
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Old January 14, 2013, 06:40 AM   #5
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Modern gas has lead in it? I remember when California had it removed. We bought additives for smoother engine performance. Heck, if the article was right, there would have been more killings in the old days.
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Old January 14, 2013, 07:35 AM   #6
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,,,thats funny.
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Old January 14, 2013, 08:32 AM   #7
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That is great and why the axiom that fits that correlation is not causeation.

Quote:
I mean no offense, mrbatchelor. It's just that Mother Jones cannot be trusted, and their "correlations" are often quite dubious.
You can't reduce such broad scale social aspects down to singular and overly simplified correlates as being causes. However, while they did look at income, it is interesting that they didn't plot the income v. crime in New Orleans. They would likes find a better correlate there.
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Old January 14, 2013, 10:08 AM   #8
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Didn't the industry start phasing out tetra-ethyl lead in gasoline back in the early 1970's?
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Old January 14, 2013, 10:19 AM   #9
mrbatchelor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankenMauser View Post
"Hey, Bob. Let's go dig through thousands of graphs, until we find one that somewhat follows this violent crime graph."




I mean no offense, mrbatchelor. It's just that Mother Jones cannot be trusted, and their "correlations" are often quite dubious.
Well, you'll see that I didn't claim it was a scientific journal.

One of my liberal friends ws spouting on about a report he had seen, and I started looking for it.

Unfortunately this was the best I could find. Nothing on any peer reviewed publication.

And frankly it's as credible as Michael Moore's interview in the Gary Null video. That's grasping at straws too, but Moore - for reasons unfathomable to me - has credibility with the libs.
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Old January 14, 2013, 10:34 AM   #10
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Of the new chemicals introduced since 1965 ,80,000 are in regular use !! We live in a chemical soup .Results ? In the last 10 years cancer rate has increased 20 %.Other immune system problems have increased in similar amounts
In the last 30 years men's sperm count has decreased 30 % and sperm quality significantly reduced .Multiple studies demonstrate this ! One major factor is the plasticizers that mimic estrogen !
Better living through chemistry !
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Old January 14, 2013, 11:01 AM   #11
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Quote:
Didn't the industry start phasing out tetra-ethyl lead in gasoline back in the early 1970's?
That was the point, there was quite a lag before the kids growing up with less lead turned into adults less prone to crime (theoretically).

While I am also skeptical of the source, the argument seems plausible and it's a good read. On the other hand there are cause/effect attributions made all the time that turn out to be not what they seem.
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Old January 14, 2013, 11:09 AM   #12
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Quote:
Modern gas has lead in it?
The avgas used in most piston-powered aircraft still does. Perhaps they should find statistics on violent crimes committed by licensed pilots and aviation mechanics...?
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Old January 14, 2013, 02:28 PM   #13
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Uh, Oh!
Reloaders who use lead bullets are gonna' become maniacs?
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Old January 14, 2013, 02:34 PM   #14
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Perhaps they should find statistics on violent crimes committed by licensed pilots and aviation mechanics...?
Not to mention all the serial killer gas station and quickee stop attendees.
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Old January 14, 2013, 03:09 PM   #15
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Quote:
Modern gas has lead in it?
As carguychris mentioned, (most) AvGas and some 'off road' race fuels still contain lead.
There are several different grades of AvGas, with varying concentrations of TEL.

Adding TEL is still one of the most effective methods for increasing the octane rating of gasoline, and getting maximum powder out of high compression engines.



Quote:
Perhaps they should find statistics on violent crimes committed by licensed pilots and aviation mechanics...?
I should have slaughtered the entire country by now, if aviation exhaust inhalation (and support equipment using AvGas) were a contributing factor to committing violent crime.
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Old January 14, 2013, 04:34 PM   #16
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Of the new chemicals introduced since 1965 ,80,000 are in regular use !! We live in a chemical soup .Results ? In the last 10 years cancer rate has increased 20 %.Other immune system problems have increased in similar amounts
In the last 30 years men's sperm count has decreased 30 % and sperm quality significantly reduced .Multiple studies demonstrate this ! One major factor is the plasticizers that mimic estrogen !

Correlation is not causation! Where is the proof??




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Old January 14, 2013, 07:26 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankenMauser
I should have slaughtered the entire country by now, if aviation exhaust inhalation (and support equipment using AvGas) were a contributing factor to committing violent crime.
Then you must have been very young when you started hanging around airplanes, FrankenMauser. Lead, especially in its organic forms such as TEL, is most toxic to developing nervous systems: babies and small children are most at risk, although at higher levels it's also a neurotoxin in adults.

There's an approximate 20-year time lag between peak levels of lead pollution and rising crime rates, and a similar time lag in dropping rates, after lead additives began to be removed from paint, gasoline, etc. The average age of violent criminals is 22, hence the time lag.

As to the "correlation vs. causation" thing, Mother Jones didn't "discover" the relationship between lead exposure and violent crime; it's been studied in depth by actual scientists, who looked at (among many other things) the childhood blood lead levels of actual criminals compared to more law-abiding folk. The correlation has been found to be statistically significant, i.e. unlikely to be a random one.

For a review of the literature and excruciatingly detailed analysis of this relationship, see this paper: Reyes, J. W. (2007). "The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime". National Bureau of Economic Research.

Interestingly, the above study found the correlation between lead exposure and violent crime in general to be significant; the correlation with murder was not...
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Old January 14, 2013, 09:41 PM   #18
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As to the "correlation vs. causation" thing, Mother Jones didn't "discover" the relationship between lead exposure and violent crime; it's been studied in depth by actual scientists, who looked at (among many other things) the childhood blood lead levels of actual criminals compared to more law-abiding folk. The correlation has been found to be statistically significant, i.e. unlikely to be a random one.
Woah, you don't suppose that people who lived in high crime urban areas with millions of autos pouring lead into the air were getting more pollution do you? That could mean that nearly all crime was caused by lead poisoning.

Curious though. What caused all that crime before lead?
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Old January 14, 2013, 10:21 PM   #19
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As carguychris mentioned, (most) AvGas and some 'off road' race fuels still contain lead.
There are several different grades of AvGas, with varying concentrations of TEL.
Ah, so that explains the mass shootings at truck rallys.
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Old January 14, 2013, 10:47 PM   #20
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Curious though. What caused all that crime before lead?
Umm... I dunno... what else causes brain damage? Malnutrition... being beaten up at an early age... other toxins...

Lead has been poisoning people for at least a couple of thousand years. Heck, the Romans had lead water pipes.

The remains of the painter Caravaggio have recently been found, and they show high lead levels. He was famously violent and ended up a fugitive after being condemned to death for killing someone -- he died, aged 39, in 1610.
Scientists seeking to shed light on the mysterious death of the Italian artist in 1610 said they are "85% sure" they have found his bones thanks to carbon dating and DNA checks on remains excavated in Tuscany.

Caravaggio's suspected bones come complete with levels of lead high enough to have driven the painter mad and helped finish him off.
And then there's plain old human nastiness -- we're not exactly a nice, peaceful species, even with undamaged brains.

Last edited by Vanya; January 14, 2013 at 10:52 PM.
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Old January 15, 2013, 01:25 AM   #21
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TheFacts, maybe you should read some of these studies .The latest French one about sperm count was just recently released.Larger than the other studies and confirms the results. The effect of the extra 'estrogen' also been seen on marine life.
Immune system problems should be rather obvious as cancer treatment is now an ever growing business.More cancer research, treatment and more people you know who have the problem.
Do some research ,it's there ,I'm not going to do it for you.
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Old January 15, 2013, 07:59 AM   #22
Hal
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Lead has been poisoning people for at least a couple of thousand years. Heck, the Romans had lead water pipes.
I can top that.....
A city of 50,000 near where I live still has lead water mains.

I saw them just last year when we had a main shutoff replaced.
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Old January 15, 2013, 12:56 PM   #23
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Nascar. Really?
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Old January 16, 2013, 12:57 AM   #24
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Mete, I have read many of the studies you mentioned, and even though some present compelling conclusions, you must realize that most of these medical studies use statistical analysis for the basis of their research. While statistics are an effective tool for methodology, they cannot prove a hypothesis; only provide support for one.

There are hundreds of known carcinogens, both natural and artificial, and confirming their toxic effects requires controlled, laboratory procedures. Pure statistical-only studies can only correlate a cause; not confirm it. Lastly, the study MUST be reproduced by peer research in order to substantiate the study.

This is what I mean when I say where is the proof. The hypothesis must stand the test of time and fresh studies are not gospel.



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Old January 16, 2013, 01:44 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by TheFacts View Post
Mete, I have read many of the studies you mentioned, and even though some present compelling conclusions, you must realize that most of these medical studies use statistical analysis for the basis of their research. While statistics are an effective tool for methodology, they cannot prove a hypothesis; only provide support for one.
While your absolutely correct for a scientific analysis, laws aren't going to get passed on science. This correlation without proof of causation is a plenty good rhetorical device to argue with against the emotional drivel that pushed through the NY state ban just today.

http://courses.durhamtech.edu/perkins/aris.html

Our immediate struggle is one of persuasion, not one of proof. The gun ban arguments are made on ethos and pathos, not logos. And we can counter them the same way, using ethos and pathos. This "potential" connection provides ammunition for those techniques, despite the fact that it's not a valid peer reviewed established fact.

Remember, we're not in a fair fight here. We don't have to lie, and frankly cannot afford to lie. While the other side can almost make up baloney at will without getting called to order on it. But these studies present credible doubts to their claim. Not absolute, to be sure. But slowing down the train is better than doing nothing while we're arguing about effectiveness of different braking systems.
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