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Old January 7, 2013, 01:56 PM   #1
Kirkpatrick
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Is this shortage temporary?

We all know what a drought in components there is right now. Do any of you think that this shortage is temporary? Do you think that we are likely to see some relief come late spring or summer (assuming that no draconian laws are passed).

Right now, I'm waiting to buy powder, brass and primers till they become more available but I'm starting to think that maybe I ought to buy when and how much I can, while I can. How much of this do you believe is being triggered by a hoarding mentality? Further, do you think that the manufactures are likely to ramp up production to meet demand?
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Old January 7, 2013, 02:08 PM   #2
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Thankfully we still have the Free Enterprise system. When things get bought, more get made so more will be purchased. Sooner or later everyone will decide they have enough to withstand whatever the government does and stop hoarding.
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Old January 7, 2013, 02:11 PM   #3
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Although I have been reloading since 1975, I was not involved in the hobby during the last primer shortage in 2008, so I did some research.

Apparently, the shortage lasted the best part of one year. Do some Google searches using key words, "2008 primer shortage" for more background on the last situation.

This time there is more manufacturing capacity, but that is more than offset by more gun owners, more guns, and the real threat that Internet ammo sales and other bad gun bills have been introduced into Congress and have a real posibility of passage.

The republicans are NOT your friends in Congress. They stabbed us in the back on January 1, 2013 - bringing the fiscal cliff bill to the House floor WITHOUT a majority of GOP support and, unfortunately, this is likely to continue.

The gun-grabbers in Congress will immediately pick the easiest fruit. That would likely include a total ban on Internet sales of commercial ammo, gun powder, primers, bullets, and brass. Other low-hanging fruit would include a law to create a national registry for all guns and gun owners.
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Old January 7, 2013, 02:22 PM   #4
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I think prices will continue to go up ....but it depends on what you're looking for in terms of components ...and how available they are....
----------------
Some powders are more available ...because there is more of it being used for a variety of calibers and shotshells.....like Hodgdon Universal, or Hodgdon Clays..../ so maybe you need to consider changing your recipe to something else ??

Some bullet companies like Montana Gold - are doing the best they can to fill orders...and are limiting some calibers to 1 case per order.../ but they're still shipping. I received a case of bullets I ordered about 6 weeks ago ...just last week. Its just a matter of being patient.

But part of stocking up on your components - is calculating what you shoot in a year ..and making sure you allow 3 -6 months for a supplier to get your order shipped...and just deal with it. You just need to buy in quantities that make sense for your needs. I think the component suppliers will catch up on components - regardless of what happens on a potential assault weapons bill...or not...who knows ??
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Old January 7, 2013, 02:23 PM   #5
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I've been watching inventories closely since last August when I visited 4 local gun stores and was unable to buy SPP. It is my opinion that supplies will NOT increase anytime soon; the shortage is real and people are now hording the few inventories that remain.

Powder Valley - a high volume low cost retailer is a great example. They are out of almost everything in primers and powders. Another example is auctions for primers on Gunbroker.com and GunsAmerica.com. Sellers there are listing primers at prices that significantly exceed the fair values and they are getting multiple bids.

All this started before the November election but it has accelerated since then.
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Old January 7, 2013, 03:10 PM   #6
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happened in the 90's with the Clinton gun ban, happened in late 08 and early 09 when Obama was elected. In both periods it was over in a few months. Why wouldn't it this time?

people panic and the first ones to panic buy up all the available supply. Others who were calmer then go into a panic and there is nothing to buy. manufacturers crank up production but people buy it as soon as it hits the shelves to scalp or until they have enough to supply their grandkids with primers. In 6 - 10 months things finally remain on the shelves more than a week and things return to normal but prices will be a bit higher.

I was one of the ones who remained calm in late 08 and early 09 and barely stocked up before the drought. This time I stocked up last September and October and have a comfortable supply that should last until next January. Then I will stock up again. Same thing will happen after the 2014 elections

and another thing to expect is for scalpers to try and keep the panic going as long as possible so they can sell those 3.50 a sleeve primers for 6 bucks by preaching gloom and doom
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Old January 7, 2013, 03:34 PM   #7
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I think that we will see prices drop in time and items return to stock.

Those that bought large amounts (More then they can use) won't be buying more in the next few months or maybe even years and the casual buyer won't have issues getting what they need.

I hope and believe that no AWB will pass and that alone will help calm the panic buying.
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Old January 7, 2013, 03:36 PM   #8
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In general, all shortages are temporary until the market adjusts. That's not to say prices won't increase... it's the intersection of the rising supply and falling demand line that is important.
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Old January 7, 2013, 04:38 PM   #9
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I hope it is. I can not find a Lee Classic Turret press at any of the stores I have checked. All online places say out of stock, Back Order OK. Should be available in 2 to 3 weeks. What the heck is going on?

Though I was told at Cabela's that they would not let the manager order anything until inventory is done next week. It was slim to no pickin's yesterday. People seeing less on the shelves drove a lot of panic buying. The store people did not say anything about it so they do not have to count it. You would have to go look at the place yourself to understand. It was not this bad after 2008 as far as what I saw in the store.
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Old January 7, 2013, 07:14 PM   #10
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I think I have 70,000 primers. No less than 68,000 anyway. Not so good on brass powder and bullets, but I should have enough primers to last me till I die.
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Old January 7, 2013, 07:31 PM   #11
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A week ago Sunday (12/30/12) I ordered 10K of CCI 300 primers and 8# of HP38 from PV. Same price as when I last ordered about September. They advised me that shipping would be a little slow, about two weeks.
At the same time I ordered 6K of bullets from MBC. The price was actually a little cheaper than the last time. As usual with MBC, I received one caliber on Wednesday, 1/2, and the remainder today.
You have to do some looking and buy when available. I am not hurting for SPP but would have liked to had some more, but not available. So I bought LPP. I will shoot 45 instead of 38 Super/9mm if I have to.
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Old January 7, 2013, 08:19 PM   #12
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Most likely it IS temporary. Once things settle down (once whatever legislative changes to be made are better known.....and the rumor mill slows down somewhat), the supply situation will likely improve. Perhaps then the hoarders will stop their a-hole behavior. Prices, however, are another matter.

I would add that, despite the insane level of speculation now extant, I consider it highly unlikely that reloading supplies will be subject to legislative sanction. Firstly, reloading does NOT figure into any of the criminal activities (i.e., mass shootings) that are driving the hysteria-based rush to increased regulation. Second, I doubt that people like Feinstein even understand the concepts, for the most part....so, reloading is probably not even "on the radar".
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Old January 7, 2013, 08:35 PM   #13
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Not trying to derail this into politics because there is a separate forum for that stuff but you guys really thing our Congress is capable of passing anything except gas? I figure at the most they might get a magazine limitation to 10 rounds. Time for a reality check here folks

I don't feel for the ones that did not see this coming but I do feel sorry for those who buy from the scalpers. This is temporary, by September all will be back to normal except primers may be 10 cents a sleeve higher
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Old January 7, 2013, 08:40 PM   #14
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Last edited by Misssissippi Dave; January 7, 2013 at 09:13 PM.
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Old January 7, 2013, 09:02 PM   #15
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sorry MD but that discussion really needs to be over at http://thefiringline.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=41 and apologies for all for the derailment. For those who want to panic and buy from scalpers it's is your money and your business
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Old January 7, 2013, 09:07 PM   #16
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Of course, it is- regardless of what happens (or not) in Congress, and I'm in the "not" camp...

Think of it this way...
Is EVERYONE shooting that much more? A little, perhaps...

But, the answer is no, aside from the growth/popularity the sport was experiencing two months ago anyway.

All that has happened, is some among us decided to buy six months worth, or a year, or more... of components out of fear mongering.

If all that panic buying hasn't been fulfilled yet, it will be soon...

Then, demand will drop to pre-panic levels- and if I'm right- BELOW pre-panic levels, because all the panic buyers will be so stocked up they'll be out of the "normal" demand/supply chain for a while.

"Hey Jim- need any H4350?"
"Nope.... got 80 pounds on the shelf"...

I suspect, that especially as manuf's ramp up for this panic buying, there will be an oversupply, soon enough.
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Old January 7, 2013, 09:14 PM   #17
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I always buff up my stock to a years supply at the end of each summer, not out of fear but simply because I do most of my shooting October through May and why would I want to pay Hazmat fees twice or three times when I can pay it once. Also not going to pay a hazmat fee for one pound of powder. Even during non panic times the local dealers around here price their stuff 25 - 50% higher than Grafs or PV or I would buy local a pound or two at a time
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Old January 7, 2013, 10:26 PM   #18
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"The republicans are NOT your friends in Congress."

Does that mean you prefer to see Democrats in congress?
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Old January 7, 2013, 10:30 PM   #19
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Not to be too much of a smarta__, but everything is temporary, including my time on the planet. As for the shortages that we see right now, I don't expect them to last. The manufacturers know what we want and they'll do their absolute dead level best to make everything you want to buy.

This is just another example of how we (pretty much all of us) tend to extrapolate from where we are. If life is bad...the majority of people do tend to believe that it'll continue to be bad. And if life is good, we tend to think life will continue to be good. It's a normal pattern that drives a lot of 'herd' behavior, including some stock market moves. I'm not saying that people are dim witted, but I'm saying that it's often hard to see past a bad situation or a good situation. I spent years trading oil futures and it was a constant fight to maintain a level head and not be overcome with gloom or euphoria while in the decision making process. And the decision making times were almost always the times when things were going your way or going exactly opposite your way. Remain calm. Do not scream or run in circles. Do not puke in your pot plant. Do not show fear. Do not pee yourself. Yes...the job paid extremely well, but it took years off my life.

The shortages will be gone soon.
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Old January 7, 2013, 10:36 PM   #20
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70,000 ???
Wanna sel lsome ?
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Old January 7, 2013, 11:15 PM   #21
reynolds357
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Nope. Just bought 4000 this week.
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Old January 7, 2013, 11:15 PM   #22
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After reading reynolds357 post I had to go downstairs and count primers, about 14,000. Then decided to count lbs of powder, about 40lbs. thousands of rds of brass, lotsa bullets, hundreds of pound of WW, lead, linotype. 5 to 10 thousand rimfires...etc.

After this current shortage everyone needs to boy scout up and be prepared.
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Old January 7, 2013, 11:19 PM   #23
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I agree Salvadore. I think this administration and the dems. in the Senate will try to do all possible to attempt to disarm us.
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Old January 8, 2013, 12:38 AM   #24
Sure Shot Mc Gee
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I know supply and demand was not met because of allot of panic buying lately. I believe the shooting sports manufactures were not prepared for such a surge. As soon as the usually high demand falls back to normal stats. Manufactures will again meet their supply demands. (Providing our politicians allow them too.) New stringent & restrictive laws. Only creates animosity in the ranks of the law abiding citizenry. No one wins in these Gun Control scenarios. No one.

1. Do any of you think that this shortage is temporary? Depends on our politicians and their behavior in near future.

2. Do you think that the manufactures are likely to ramp up production to meet demand? No.

3. How much of this do you believe is being triggered by a hoarding mentality? More panic buying than hoarding in this situation. I believe
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Old January 8, 2013, 12:47 AM   #25
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Quote:
I think this administration and the dems. in the Senate will try to do all possible to attempt to disarm us.
Just like last time ..... or does nobody remember the back door deals w/S&W, the AWB, outright attacks on gun owners by federal agents (Waco/Ruby Ridge)..... and that's just off the top of my head,trying to recall events of 15-20 years ago ......
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