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Old December 31, 2012, 07:38 AM   #1
Palmetto-Pride
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Future Value of AR-15s if Permanent AWB Actualy Happens?

So I was wondering what anyone thinks the values of AR-15s would go to if say they were treated like class 3 weapons in 5,10,15,20 yrs. I realize this is all hypothetical and just speculating.
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Old December 31, 2012, 09:39 AM   #2
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Pure speculation on my part, but say the gubment puts ARs under NFA title 2, I could see the initial price being about three grand. People are paying 2000 and upwards now. With the outlawing of manufacture, import, etc. that induces an automatic shortage right off the bat. A current NFA firearm starts at about 4000 now at least the last I checked. I think that buys you a tech 9 or some such and they go up from there. Like I say that is the last I checked and I'm sure they are more than that now. Never much seen them come down in price even with the recession. The best I have ever seen from a buyer's standpoint is to remain the same pricewise for a length of time. People want what they can't get or anything that is in finite supply. The country's population stands at 315 million now and growing so demand will skyrocket until a price is reached which induces a tipping point. Initially I would say about 3000 minimum. What will cause even more consternation with the buying public will be the turnaround from the time you submit your application until you get your stamp. My first one took 4 months and that was several years ago. I could see that stretching from one to two years due that the number of transfer applications will increase exponentially because of the sheer numbers of guns and folks wanting them that will be created with any new law. After that it's anyone's guess. Depends a lot on the makeup of any new law and of course what the economy will look like in say five to ten years.
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Old December 31, 2012, 09:40 AM   #3
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I have a feeling we won't be seeing the prices of ar15 a month ago ever again. I really hope i'm wrong.
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Old December 31, 2012, 09:51 AM   #4
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I'm assuming the current feeding frenzy will die down before too long and prices will most likely return to within a few percent of what they were a month or two ago: Odds are that we'd see a situation similar to the AW ban: "Pre-ban" rifles were around double the "Post-ban".

But, no way to know what--if any--new laws will actually pass, nor what might come from an Executive Order.

It's all just wait-and-see.
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Old December 31, 2012, 09:55 AM   #5
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If any kind of ban includes "no transfer" or "sale" of current AR's well then.....
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Old December 31, 2012, 09:58 AM   #6
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Exactly. If there's a no transfer or sale provision, then the value becomes both immeasurable and $0 all at once.

Here's a rhetorical question: if transfer becomes illegal, then what happens after someone passes away?
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Old December 31, 2012, 10:04 AM   #7
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Quote:
Here's a rhetorical question: if transfer becomes illegal, then what happens after someone passes away?
I have wondered this as well. My guess is that the surviving family or executor of the estate will be required to turn them over to the local law enforcement agency for disposal.
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Old December 31, 2012, 10:35 AM   #8
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If there is no sale or transfer provision then there would be a huge black market for them..... God only knows what the price would be, but the way I look at it is they can make whatever law they want now, but that doesn't mean that another president couldn't overturn it down the road when people realize that crime will not be reduced by gun control laws.
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Old December 31, 2012, 11:19 AM   #9
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Skadoosh, yes, I was thinking that as well. So, in essence, that would be a back-door way of eventually getting all semi-auto rifles out of private hands. Basically, if you didn't own it in 2013 then it's illegal to have in your possession.

All hypothetical of course, but within reason of what some of our legislators might try to pass.
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Old December 31, 2012, 02:09 PM   #10
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This whole gun debate is going to get interesting . Here is my .02 . If all the antis get is closing the gun show loop hole and ten round max the prices will come back down . If the antis get a real AWB with no sale or possession if not already owned . Then the prices will go way up peaking just before the ban goes in to effect . They are going to get something and it will get many votes . If the later happens I will sell one of mine at the high point . Why you ask ? Cus I'm a good guy and want as many people as possible to own a AR . OH and it would fund a few other firearm purchases .
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Old December 31, 2012, 02:24 PM   #11
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value of an AR15 if ban takes place=$0
unless you convert it to be ban compliant it will be non transferable. therefore no value assigned.
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Old December 31, 2012, 02:24 PM   #12
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This is an exact repeat of 1992. I learned the first time. All these @#$% hoarders and price gougers are what's burning me alive!!! If you watch GB much, you know what I mean. How can billions of rounds of ammo be all "out of stock" at once with billions more returning from overseas? It can't.
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Old December 31, 2012, 02:37 PM   #13
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They could become worthless for any legal sale. Of course they would be worth a fortune with an illegal sale if that were to happen. There are too many unanswered questions at this time. I'd be afraid to even guess.
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Old December 31, 2012, 02:51 PM   #14
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There are so many AR's out there, not to mention uppers, lowers, and barrels that haven't been assembled. - any real price hike is due to pure panic.

I remember the day when I was told we would never see $500 AK's again. That proved to be false. At some point all these AR and AK speculators would probably want to cash in on their investments, or at least try to recoup some of their spent money.

While I am willing to pay a slight premium on some handguns that we might not see in production any longer, I'm not buying any AR's or AK's.
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Old December 31, 2012, 03:50 PM   #15
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"This is an exact repeat of 1992. I learned the first time."

Then you should be in great shape this time.....
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Old December 31, 2012, 09:12 PM   #16
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If they accomplish what they want...nothing. They will be utterly worthless. Why would anyone want a rifle like the AR15 if you had to pay $1600 for a crappy one, and ammunition is $1.68 a round and pretty much unavailable to anyone?

That IS their goal....some don't relies it yet.
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Old December 31, 2012, 09:20 PM   #17
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My .02$ is those that are buying AR's for $3,000 and more are going to be kicking themselves in 6 months! The prices are going to return to what we saw just a month ago and those that paid the big bucks will be trying to sell them for 1/2 what they paid and won't get it do to stock in local gun shops being lower.
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Old January 1, 2013, 08:06 AM   #18
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Exactly. If there's a no transfer or sale provision, then the value becomes both immeasurable and $0 all at once.

Here's a rhetorical question: if transfer becomes illegal, then what happens after someone passes away?
- Martowski
------


I have wondered this as well. My guess is that the surviving family or executor of the estate will be required to turn them over to the local law enforcement agency for disposal.
- Skadoosh

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

What the two above persons mention could possibly take place. I am sure the anti-2ndA people are strongly considering the possibilities of it (remember - those people see themselves as the newly evolved twenty-first century Americans and the Constitution as a Living Document. They consider our clinging (the very word used by our elected president) to the literal phrasing (as opposed to meaning) of that amendment as a barbarity on our part).
The item mentioned by Martowski and expanded on by Skadoosh would be a violation of RKBA and we need to treat it as such.
As I mentioned on another board, I am a Democrat who is as strong a proponent of the Second Amendment as any right leaning Republican.
We cannot let the above scenario happen. Many of you know that.

Xfire68, I hope you are right on this one.

- JKHolman

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Old January 1, 2013, 09:04 AM   #19
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I think there's going to be some very po'd folks in a little while. Cheaper Than Scum was recently selling Pmags for $60+ a piece and others have been selling low end ARs for $2k+. They were also selling some pretty ropey surplus 556 ammo for over $1 a round.

Good luck to them but the buyers are probably going to take a haircut.
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Old January 1, 2013, 09:28 AM   #20
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I think it could be like bootleg alcohol during prohibition. People want to own guns and will get them from whatever source possible. Whenever you make something legal into something illegal, all you do is make criminals out of honest people.
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Old January 1, 2013, 09:48 AM   #21
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Depends on the provisions.

You think there's a panic buy now? If it passes, private sales will disappear, as everyone will hold what they've got. Supply and demand will cause prices to go even higher, peaking right before implementation.

Afterwards, it will depend on the provisions in the bill. Their value, as Martowski says will be both zero and limitless, if there's a no transfer provision. If they are declared NFA, their value will be high, not quite like full-auto, as the supply is much greater. If it is similar to the last one, prices will settle higher than now, but be stable.

PS: off topic, but JK if you're an originalist, how can you be a democrat?
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Old January 1, 2013, 01:00 PM   #22
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I'm getting the feeling any new laws passed will include no transfers. After the fiscal cliff issue is over the dog and pony show should begin. 30rd mags are history!
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Old January 1, 2013, 01:36 PM   #23
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During the 1994-2000 ban prices went up but not astronomically. In part this was because other weapons were introduced that got around the various "offensive parts" issues and people bought them instead.

Despite all the doom, it's doubtful that Feinstein's AWB will pass in its current form. Like any other self-interested group, thoughtful politicians tend to require some sort of iron-clad guarantee against blowback before voting for it. To the extent that citizens can make their elected representatives aware that if they support the ban there will be payback in their future, they may be less enthusiastic about supporting the ban.

With respect to passing firearms to the next generation, contact a lawyer. It may be possible to establish a living trust, or a corporation, or both, to which ownership of your weapons may be legally transferred. That is, you don't own them - your trust does. When you die, your trust does not die and IIRC trusts may be administered by your heirs. Beretta is an example of a privately-held company that is more than 400 years old.

It's not quite a dictatorship yet. Possibly the most effective option broadly available to all of us is to make our voices heard. Contact your elected representatives. Explain calmly, rationally, professionally that you expect them to support your rights to own your firearms, and that this is what you voted them into office to do. If they cannot do so, next time you'll vote someone else into their office.
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Old January 1, 2013, 03:38 PM   #24
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On the Sunday talk shows it was debated whether any action would be taken...
If you recall, Feinstein said she would introduce her bill on "DAY ONE"....
Now, it's as "soon as possible"...

The discussion basically centered around political realities- and what "fight" might be taken in the first year.

Gun Control?

Immigration Reform? Other?

Chuck Todd rightfully pointed out that trying to pass new gun control laws- including AGAIN the AWB that had already been in effect for ten years to no effect- had a large chance of FAILURE.

Is Obama willing to spend the next year on that fight- and most likely lose- or finally tackle immigration reform that both sides acknowledge needs to be done, and has a much higher chance of success.

Whatever your or my opinion of his policies, he is the consummate politician.

I do think there may be some compromise, such as the gun-show loophole, but no way will a re-make of the AWB make it through the House- and I honestly doubt it has any chance even in the Democratic Senate.

So....to answer your question...

IFFFF (and that's a huge if), Feinstein's AWB were law in current form, future value AFTER it would be in effect would be zero. Can't transfer ownership, so it has no value to a law-abiding citizen. Beforehand, it would be interesting. There are millions of these on circulation, so you'll have sellers that own them, that would choose to cash out.. could result in an oversupply, which might actually drive prices down from the ridiculous panic level they're at now.
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Old January 1, 2013, 04:24 PM   #25
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If Congress follows the Gun Banner model, AR15’s will have a negative value since having one will put you in jail.

I really believe the American Congress will call for a confiscation, and unlike in Australia, there won’t be any compensation or fair compensation to gun owners. It will be done quick and cheap.
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