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Old December 28, 2012, 03:04 PM   #1
breakingcontact
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How are things different than in 2008/2009?

The most previous "panic" that drove up prices was based on fear of the new president and what he could do.

The panic we are in the midst of now is due to the president essentially restating his previous position and some senators reintroducing bills they have been introducing in some form for years.

What is different about our current situation than in 2009? Aren't we in some ways better off due to the US House? I understand the rapidity with which people bought was unprecedented. The gun shops and distributors were wiped out like never before, I get that. I just don't see how any severe legislation is going to be passed or existing laws/rules radically unless the supreme courts makeup changes and upholds capricious executive orders.

(I am in no way minimizing the tragedy that happened, it makes me sick. But so does the disarming of the American people.)
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Old December 28, 2012, 03:26 PM   #2
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Because after the last election it became obvious that the number of people who probably would support gun control (Obama supporters) now outnumber those who believe the right to keep and bear is non-negotiable. Couple that with a tragedy that involves children and you have a situation where even more people can be swayed, due to simple emotion, to the "anti" side. Add to that the fact that these types of people are historically VERY vocal and influential among our Government Representatives and you have a recipe for disaster with respect to gun rights.

This situation will require that every Republican in the House vote against a new Assault Weapon Ban. If even a few are swayed we will be subjected to that rediculous measure again...even worse this time.
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Old December 28, 2012, 03:44 PM   #3
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Quote:
This situation will require that every Republican in the House vote against a new Assault Weapon Ban.
I don't think that is 100% true. If we are talking about the extreme new bill that Feinstein is going to introduce, I'm willing to bet a substantial amount of money that some Democrats will vote against it. That's the good thing about the anti's reaching too far!

And I think your thread could be re-titled, "How are things different than in 2004?" Because that's when the AWB sun-setted. And it seemed like the anti's were confident it would be renewed. Most of the gun people were running around buying stuff like it would last forever. And there I was at the gun shows selling some of my standard capacity mags. Because I believed that the one thing you can count on is... Congress being unable to agree on anything important and "acting on it." I was right.

So if they couldn't even renew the existing AWB... why do so many people seem to think they will be able to pass this huge new intrusion with registration and fingerprinting and guns not even being transferable? (Which would amount to a seizure of property without compensation. There's a little something about that in the Constitution!)

Everybody relax and take a deep breath. Make sure you are current members of the NRA, GOA, and SAF. Send them extra money if you have it. Join your state organizations as well. We need to be vigilant and ready to spring into action but the panic needs to stop. I really think that history shows we have the advantage here.

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Old December 28, 2012, 03:56 PM   #4
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Re-hash of the failed extension of the AWB:

1. President Bush promised to sign an extension of the AWB if congress passed the legislation.

2. An extension of the AWB passed the US senate by a vote of 52-47. Ten Republican senators voted to extend the AWB and six Democrats voted against extending the AWB. That vote was part of a larger bill that failed to pass the senate.

3. An extension of the AWB would likely have passed the US house. However, Speaker Hastert refused to bring the bill to the floor for debate.

4. The AWB expired as designed.
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Old December 28, 2012, 07:29 PM   #5
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I am cautiously optomistic. With all the draconian measures the Feinstein bill call for (registration for one) I don't think that it will pass. Plus the politicians well remember what happened in the 96 elections after the AWB passed.
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Old December 28, 2012, 07:41 PM   #6
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Quote:
I am cautiously optomistic. With all the draconian measures the Feinstein bill call for (registration for one) I don't think that it will pass.
Any so called "assault weapons ban" voted on in congress would be vastly different from any proposed by Feinstein. An AWB like the last one would likely pass the senate, probably with an expiration date. i doubt that any such ban would pass the US house. Additionally, the speaker of the house has the option of refusing to bring the bill to the floor for debate.

Quote:
Plus the politicians well remember what happened in the 96 elections after the AWB passed.
It was the 94 elections. The Democrats lost control of both houses of congress. The Republicans picked up 54 seats in the house and took control of that body for the first time in 40 years.

Sadly, the Republicans who voted for the AWB got a pass.

Last edited by thallub; December 28, 2012 at 07:49 PM.
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Old December 28, 2012, 11:01 PM   #7
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Let's keep Republican v. Democrat politics out of it.

So, what's different? Several factors. The current President is on record as supporting gun control. That hasn't changed. What has changed is that he's now a lame duck, and he's perceived as having nothing to lose. In some ways, this was the same situation that gave LBJ confidence in signing the 1968 GCA.

Second, we have a horrible tragedy and calls for public action. Some politicians have seized on this as an opportunity, hoping that the horror in Connecticut will give their usual legislative escapades more of a chance.

Third, the media is all over gun control in a way I haven't seen in almost 20 years.
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Old December 29, 2012, 01:16 AM   #8
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Supreme Court appointments

No one has mentioned that one big change this term is that Obama will appoint the next 1-2 justices on the Supreme Court. They will be liberals who will eliminate the present balance and put the Court in the position to change the present interpretation of the second amendment. When this happens there is greater likelihood that limitations on semi-auto rifles and high-cap mags will occur through court challenges.
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Old December 29, 2012, 09:47 AM   #9
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Obama will appoint the next 1-2 justices on the Supreme Court. They will be liberals who will eliminate the present balance and put the Court in the position to change the present interpretation of the second amendment.
We are used to dealing with partisan politicians but Supreme Court judges don't just automatically come in and change things. Actually the SC doesn't like to "change a previous opinion." That would make people think they made their decisions based on something other than the Constitution. So while it is possible that we might lose our majority vote on Heller, that doesn't necessarily mean it will end up overruled.

Anything can happen but that's what history tells us. Once a few decades go by... then maybe.

And you can't say "will appoint" and that will eliminate the present balance. A liberal or two might retire and be replaced. But the conservatives on the Court will hold out as long as they can. Even if they are in the hospital. But we need to end up with a conservative candidate who actually wins the election "someday" or they will all die on the bench!

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Old December 29, 2012, 10:11 AM   #10
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The only thing different is the raw emotionalism being channeled by the opposition. I believe it is unsustainable. Whether my belief is true or not I don't know, no one has a working crystal ball.
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Old December 29, 2012, 11:47 AM   #11
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After the wave of emotionalism dies down as other crisies surface, the ban wave will come to naught (but what do I know). Recent Gallop polling after Sandy Hook shows 74% against handgun bans and 50-50 ish on an AWB.

Given the polarization of parties - I doubt we would see progun crossovers to anti from one party (sorry Tom) that usually like guns. Some of the progun in the other party will. But that's not enough for 60 Senate for Feinstein's draconian bill.

I'm guessing we might see a mandatory NICS for private sales at gun shows. But that's it.
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Old December 29, 2012, 11:56 AM   #12
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For those of us who remember such things: There was a steady drumbeat for an "assault weapons ban" from about 1988 until the law passed in 1994.
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Old December 29, 2012, 11:58 AM   #13
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I'm guessing we might see a mandatory NICS for private sales at gun shows. But that's it.
If that is what it takes to keep from hearing the words "gun show loop hole" ad nasuem then I would be in favor, so long as it did not come with any other restrictions.
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Old December 29, 2012, 10:43 PM   #14
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I'm guessing we might see a mandatory NICS for private sales at gun shows.
There's a certain irony that a tragedy that has nothing to do with gun shows is being exploited to push a law that regulates gun shows.
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Old December 29, 2012, 11:13 PM   #15
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There's a certain irony that a tragedy that has nothing to do with gun shows is being exploited to push a law that regulates gun shows.
Nothing being proposed has anything to do with the tragedy. They are just exploiting the opportunity.
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Old December 29, 2012, 11:26 PM   #16
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There is no "gun show loop-hole"...it is a "private sale loop-hole". If they close it you will be forced to transfer every gun you sell through an FFL dealer.

They know very well how to divide and conquer even pro-gun groups. They know that many rifle folks don't really care what they do about pistols and shotguns and many shotgunners could care less if pistols and semi-auto carbines are restricted...etc, etc. They bring up the "sporting purpose" crap because they know many hunters are not involved in shooting sports and are perfectly happy with restrictions on those "evil" military style guns as long as they have their hunting guns.

And proposed gun control legislation seldom has anything to do with the specific event that spawns the effort. The killer has usually broken numerous felonies before they fire their first shot. But our "legal eagles" promote the idea that just one more "reasonable" restriction would have made all the difference. They don't actually believe it, they just know it makes their goal easier to approach when they can say it's for the children.
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Old December 30, 2012, 01:42 AM   #17
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The difference between 2008/2009 and today is this: It's only been four years since the last rush to buy and accelerated demand when the GOP lost. A lot of newer gun owners didn't know much about the 1994 AWB, and got caught with their pants down in 2009 (myself included).

Today it's a combination of both candidates expressing support for renewal of the AWB during the debates, those that remember the high demand and shortages of four years ago, BHO's re-election, Colorado, Sandy Hook, NY firefighters, the constant obvious Media anti-gun Bias, internet rumors, etc.

I remember .380 fmj ammo going for $30.00 a box of 50 in 2009. Most of us didn't forget that, and started the rush just before this last election. I believe some have called this the perfect storm for the high demand of guns, and so far it's been very rough seas for the unprepared.
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Old December 30, 2012, 01:43 AM   #18
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which is one of the reasons that many FFL holders support that type of legislation.
Do you have a source for this?
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Old December 30, 2012, 01:55 AM   #19
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While this by no means shows that all FFL holders support the end of private sales here is at least one who appears to. Scott Austin of Tucker Gun in suburban Atlanta said, “I’ve been saying that needs to go for 20 years,” he said. “If they did away with gun shows altogether it wouldn’t bother me. Then they’d have to come to me.”

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/cobb-gu...emi-aut/nTdMm/
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Old December 30, 2012, 02:10 AM   #20
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No I can't site a particular source. When I had my FFL (many years ago) there was already a movement among some dealers (can't recall the national FFL dealer's organization name right now) to lobby for a requirement for all transfers to go through a licensed dealer. The reasons are obvious...it helps their bottom line in a business that is very competitive and has relatively low margins. They even lobbied (fairly successfully) to eliminate FFL dealers who operated from a home based business (non-storefront, non-stocking). I was eventually unable to renew my FFL without proof of a "storefront" business.

I don't blame them for wanting to bolster their business and I simply "assume" there are still several (many) who would like it a lot if all gun sales had to be handled through a dealer.

If that reasoning is too slim I will edit and withdraw that comment from my post.
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Old December 30, 2012, 02:55 AM   #21
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I think the Anti's are asking for the moon with the intention that they won't get all of it but will get some of it. If they do get some of it, that will be a major victory for them, Concerning the gun show loop hole, I keep seeing that being explained as gun show sales "by private dealers". When you say dealer, that means something different than saying individual.
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Old December 30, 2012, 10:36 AM   #22
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When I had my FFL (many years ago) there was already a movement among some dealers (can't recall the national FFL dealer's organization name right now) to lobby for a requirement for all transfers to go through a licensed dealer.
That would be Bill Bridgewater and his so-called National Association of Stocking Gun Dealers. I've never met or heard of anyone who's actually been a member or known a member of that organization. I'm not alone in assuming it was a false-flag operation on behalf of the Brady Campaign and VPC.

There was a crackdown on compliance under the Clinton administration, and that drove many "kitchen table" dealers out of business. However, they still exist today as long as they play by the rules.

Would a few brick/mortar dealers perhaps make some extra money if they had the monopoly on transfers? Perhaps. But to imply that dealers are lobbying for such a thing would require some proof.
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Old December 30, 2012, 11:48 AM   #23
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Post edited to remove conjecture on my part...apologies.
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Old December 30, 2012, 05:26 PM   #24
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Saw today, BHO re-stating his position and stating it is a priority and he wants it done in 2013.
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Old December 30, 2012, 07:35 PM   #25
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Would a few brick/mortar dealers perhaps make some extra money if they had the monopoly on transfers? Perhaps.
I would say probably not. Whatever money they did make would be low and annoying kind of like lottery ticket sales to convenience stores. The store might end up losing money and customers as people shopping in stores realized that PPS are a better deal and avoid sales tax.
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