The Firing Line Forums

Go Back   The Firing Line Forums > The Conference Center > General Discussion Forum

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old September 15, 2012, 04:11 PM   #1
Colorado Redneck
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 6, 2008
Location: Northeast Colorado
Posts: 1,054
Ammo shortage if Obama wins?

In another thread, someone posted yesteday that a way to make money would be buy ammo now and sell it after the election. Having just retired, and since one of my favorite hobbies is loading and shooting, that stirred my old memory about after the first time Obama was elected, and how ammo and loading components were scarce as hens teeth for a while.

Any chance we are going to induce that same shortage again based on fear that laws will change?
Colorado Redneck is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 04:13 PM   #2
5.56RifleGuy
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 9, 2010
Location: USA
Posts: 1,135
Probably, but I think manufacturers may be expect it this time, and may gear up sooner.
5.56RifleGuy is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 04:36 PM   #3
NWPilgrim
Senior Member
 
Join Date: September 29, 2008
Location: Oregon
Posts: 2,141
Highly unpredictable. Plus you need to buy a huge quantity to get any discount. If you buy only at retail and expect to make profit on speculation then that is very risky. Better be willing to hold on to it for some time in case there is no immediate shortage. Long term you are likely to make a profit of sorts from inflation but that could take months or a couple of years.
NWPilgrim is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 04:41 PM   #4
Colorado Redneck
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 6, 2008
Location: Northeast Colorado
Posts: 1,054
Clarification

Sorry--My intent is not to buy up a bunch of ammo and speculate. I am a selfish old coot, and am wondering if primers or bullets may get hard to come by in a few months. Winter is a great time to load and shoot handguns at the local club (indoors.) Would be disappointing to have to wait for components.

Took a gift card to the local shooting store and bought some primers and bullets, just in case. See? I started doing what happened last time this shortage thingie came about.
Colorado Redneck is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 04:55 PM   #5
Glenn E. Meyer
Staff
 
Join Date: November 17, 2000
Posts: 15,614
I don't think we will see a panic from anyone with a modicum of intelligence. I have a lunch bet that a new AWB won't be put in after the election.

I recall the mag panic. I just got a new CDNN catalog with Glock Mag prices down to $19. That's a drop. Wouldn't they stockpile them for the great freakout?

Let's keep off pure politics, BTW in more comments.
__________________
NRA, TSRA, IDPA, NTI, Polite Soc.
http://www.teddytactical.com/archive...05_Feature.htm
Being an Academic Shooter
http://www.teddytactical.com/archive...11_Feature.htm
Being an Active Shooter
Glenn E. Meyer is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 04:58 PM   #6
Shotgun693
Senior Member
 
Join Date: September 3, 2011
Location: Poteet, Texas
Posts: 959
On the south side of San Antonio there's already a shortage of primers and ammo, at least .223. I looked the other day and the cheapest was about .60 a round. Primers were about $4.50 a hundred. The shelves were bare in many spots. I ordered some ammo on-line. I'm not sure if they're buying for protection from the riots or to use in the riots?
Shotgun693 is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 05:04 PM   #7
jmortimer
Junior member
 
Join Date: January 24, 2010
Location: South West Riverside County California
Posts: 2,763
We know for sure retailers and manufacturers believe it will happen for a fact. I will side the the manufacturers and retailers as I think they have a clear understanding of the implications of a second term - just like last time -
9-14-2012 article from Wall Street Journal by Shelly Banjo "Gun Sales Hinge on Obama Re-Election" - Rational or not, it is all but certain what will happen - just like the first time.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...hatsNewsSecond
jmortimer is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 06:57 PM   #8
Glenn E. Meyer
Staff
 
Join Date: November 17, 2000
Posts: 15,614
I've missed the riots on the south side of San Antonio. Bass Pro has lots of ammo. Wally does too - except for cheap 9mm.

If one buys for the election, then you are just plain silly. It would take a veto proof control of the Congress to ban XY or Z. Ain't going to happen.

Spare us tin foil, please.
__________________
NRA, TSRA, IDPA, NTI, Polite Soc.
http://www.teddytactical.com/archive...05_Feature.htm
Being an Academic Shooter
http://www.teddytactical.com/archive...11_Feature.htm
Being an Active Shooter
Glenn E. Meyer is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 07:33 PM   #9
bbqbob51
Senior Member
 
Join Date: November 6, 2005
Posts: 726
We were our own worst enemy 4 years ago.

If there is an ammo shortage it will be for the same reason as before. There was irrational panic buying and what actually happened to justify it? Absolutely nothing. I seem to recall someone who posted pictures, either here or some other site, of their "wall of ammo" they had in their garage or basement. They and others had bragged about cleaning out all the stock in some stores.
I just don't know how much ammo anyone really needs, I know I cannot afford to go out every day and blast off 200-300 rounds of centerfire cartridges. I might go through that amount and more of 22LR in one afternoon and that is why I keep several 550 bricks on hand and buy a few each month. I probably have a total of 1000-1500+ rounds of 38spl, 357mag, 9mm, 20ga, and .223/556 on hand which is enough to keep me going for a while. I replenish them monthly by buying 50-100 rounds of each caliber depending on how active I have been shooting. Please do me a favor and leave me a box or 2 on the shelf to satisfy my modest needs.
bbqbob51 is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 07:40 PM   #10
jmortimer
Junior member
 
Join Date: January 24, 2010
Location: South West Riverside County California
Posts: 2,763
"I've missed the riots on the south side of San Antonio"
Did you miss the primer and ammunition shortage? Unfortunately, I didn't and primers were unavailable or back-ordered for months. I did not hoard, but there must have been a whole lot of people who did. Many firearms are unavailable due to back-orders. Ruger stopped taking orders back in March. People may want to pretend it won't happen again, but it will. Irrational or not, that is what will happen. I'm no fan of the NRA but they are irrational as well as they have warned about how bad term two would be, real bad in the opinion of the NRA. Lot of crazy people out there. I think they were called bitter clingers.
jmortimer is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 08:18 PM   #11
Colorado Redneck
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 6, 2008
Location: Northeast Colorado
Posts: 1,054
Military usage

Seems like there was some impact on availability caused by military usage a few years ago too.

Glenn--I certainly did not want to start a political food fight. Just asking about the opinions of others. After reading that post I referenced earlier, I looked at Midway Shooting and some of the primer selection is already out of stock. I bought a thousand primers, and some bullets. Nothing that will change the economy, and by February or so it will probably all get shot up. I ain't interested in twiddling my thumbs all winter due to that same paranoia attack that happened 4 years ago.

This is similar to stocking your freezer when its forecasted that meat prices are rising (as they are now.)
Colorado Redneck is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 08:24 PM   #12
thallub
Senior Member
 
Join Date: November 20, 2007
Location: South Western OK
Posts: 2,075
Yep, i still have some types of primers left over from the "Clinton has ordered primers to self destruct" scare. i'm not into panic buying anymore.
thallub is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 08:46 PM   #13
gaseousclay
Senior Member
 
Join Date: August 4, 2010
Location: Frozen Tundra
Posts: 869
I don't panic buy because I don't believe any of the nonsense being espoused by other gun owners. nothing happened 4 yrs ago and nothing will happen this election. gun owners are their own worst enemy imo
gaseousclay is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 08:52 PM   #14
WyMark
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 10, 2011
Location: Wyoming
Posts: 225
Glenn E. Meyer said:
Quote:
I don't think we will see a panic from anyone with a modicum of intelligence.
So you're suggesting that we'll see a fairly large scale panic, then?
WyMark is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 09:29 PM   #15
Straightshooter629
Senior Member
 
Join Date: August 30, 2009
Location: Columbus, Ohio
Posts: 475
The ammo panic was the same as the Y2K idiocy...a fantasy that will never happen.
Straightshooter629 is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 09:36 PM   #16
mayosligo
Senior Member
 
Join Date: February 16, 2006
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Posts: 301
Most likely will happen again as this is what happens in all markets. Whether it is truth or rumor people will react and buy more ammo than usually which will affect supply, which will cause the price to rise when the supply becomes shorter. It happens. I would imagine ammo companies look forward to it.
mayosligo is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 10:11 PM   #17
Tom Servo
Staff
 
Join Date: September 27, 2008
Location: Foothills of the Appalachians
Posts: 10,191
Quote:
I have a lunch bet that a new AWB won't be put in after the election.
You'd be right, but good luck convincing the general public of that.

The shortage wasn't caused so much by shooters as it was folks who just happened to own guns. Those folks heard rumors and innuendo, fanned in part by the media and internet, and they took it on faith that something was going to happen.

While manufacturers are better this time around about supply, I have no doubt we'll see some sporadic shortages at the very least.
__________________
In the depth of winter I finally learned that there was in me an invincible summer.
--Albert Camus
Tom Servo is offline  
Old September 15, 2012, 11:27 PM   #18
45Gunner
Senior Member
 
Join Date: August 8, 2009
Location: Boca Raton, FL
Posts: 1,727
Buy ammo for the sake of having enough to shoot when you want to shoot and perhaps a few rounds to circle the wagons and hold off the uprising when and if it should occur.

One thing we can all agree on, the price of ammo has been on the steady rise since I began shooting over 50 years ago, as has the price of just about everything else. Buy as much as you can afford to stockpile and consider it a hedge savings against the future rise in price.
__________________
45Gunner
May the Schwartz Be With You.
NRA Instructor
NRA Life Member
45Gunner is offline  
Old September 16, 2012, 12:21 AM   #19
Blindmike
Member
 
Join Date: June 7, 2012
Location: Albertville, Alabama
Posts: 30
Time tells all

Looking at the way back room deals are made in Washington I think the day will come when they come for the ammo or flat out ask for our guns. Will it be President Obama, I don't see that happening but time will tell. We all know the people who do not like anyone having a gun, commies and dictator types, make a lot of noise but it has not changed that more people are buying guns along with the ammo for the first time than ever before. And one thing has proven true, once someone can do something it is hell telling them they cannot do it anymore. Look how well that worked when alcohol become illegal. Can demand outstrip production, well yes it happens all the time. But as far as a president trying to pass a law to take away our right for guns or the ammo that is not going to happen in my life time. To change the rights we have been given since the very foundation of this country is not an easy task. Even the most left of our leaders know full well that if they want to stay in office that they can say all the B.S. they want to get support but action on some of that would be the end of their term.
Blindmike is offline  
Old September 16, 2012, 01:03 AM   #20
Buzzcook
Senior Member
 
Join Date: November 29, 2007
Location: Everett, WA
Posts: 5,616
The Iraq war is scaled back quite a bit. So demand is lower from government, freeing up resources for the public.

Oh in 2008 the "surge" was going full swing making military demand even higher.
Buzzcook is offline  
Old September 16, 2012, 06:24 AM   #21
Kreyzhorse
Senior Member
 
Join Date: April 12, 2006
Location: NKY
Posts: 11,472
Quote:
I don't think we will see a panic from anyone with a modicum of intelligence. I have a lunch bet that a new AWB won't be put in after the election.
+1.

I don't think we will see it this time unless after the election he really ramps up his anti gun rhetoric.
__________________
"He who laughs last, laughs dead." Homer Simpson
Kreyzhorse is offline  
Old September 16, 2012, 06:30 AM   #22
Bud Helms
Staff
 
Join Date: December 31, 1999
Location: Middle Georgia
Posts: 13,000
Glenn has already warned once against political commentary.

Heed please.
__________________
"The irony of the Information Age is that it has given new respectability to uninformed opinion." - John Lawton, speaking to the American Association of Broadcast Journalists in 1995
Bud Helms is offline  
Old September 16, 2012, 07:16 AM   #23
thedudeabides
Senior Member
 
Join Date: August 22, 2012
Posts: 981
It wouldn't take an act of Congress to make ammo hard to find.

All the EPA would need to do is say that the lead in it is a hazard, or the primer/powder causes cancer. They could drive prices up astronomically for the presumed cost of clean up of using lead cartridges on public land.

Taking guns away would be harder, but it wouldn't take much to reclassify what is an "appropriate" handgun and rifle for a citizen to own, based on size, ammo capacity, barrel length, etc. They can use the recent shootings as an example, as they've been trying already to outlaw "extended mags." The media already thinks that 15 rounds in a 9mm is "extended" even if it's the stock mag that fits flush with the grip base.

Or they could do Euro-style and say you can't own any gun that uses a military and/or Police cartridge.

If you talk to many hardcore liberals, they really think that an enlightened society has no need for lawful gun ownership. And if you want to run the 2nd amendment through the mindset of creative left-leaning judges, all you may be entitled to is a single action breech-bolt operated rifle locked away in a government approved safe... after you have applied for all the necessary tax stamps, government approved training courses, been placed on a national registry of gun owners...

It's possible.

Not likely, but at least half of the population thinks we need more gun control.
thedudeabides is offline  
Old September 16, 2012, 08:23 AM   #24
gaseousclay
Senior Member
 
Join Date: August 4, 2010
Location: Frozen Tundra
Posts: 869
Quote:
If you talk to many hardcore liberals, they really think that an enlightened society has no need for lawful gun ownership. And if you want to run the 2nd amendment through the mindset of creative left-leaning judges, all you may be entitled to is a single action breech-bolt operated rifle locked away in a government approved safe... after you have applied for all the necessary tax stamps, government approved training courses, been placed on a national registry of gun owners...
not true. I don't know how many liberals you've taken the time to talk to but you'll find that a lot of them are staunch defenders of the 2nd Amendment. but, I'm not going to get into a political debate about it per the forum rules.

the way I see it, there are 2 types of gun owners causing the shortage: the ones that panic buy and wipe out ammo stock and those that buy ammo because of the panic buyers. either way, the gun industry comes out on top
gaseousclay is offline  
Old September 16, 2012, 08:39 AM   #25
Rifleman1776
Senior Member
 
Join Date: April 25, 2010
Location: Arkansas
Posts: 3,309
It is easy to feed paranoia.
That is all that caused the fake shortage last time.
I fell for it like many. I now have more .22lr ammo than I will use in a lifetime.
Rifleman1776 is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:00 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
This site and contents, including all posts, Copyright © 1998-2014 S.W.A.T. Magazine
Copyright Complaints: Please direct DMCA Takedown Notices to the registered agent: thefiringline.com
Contact Us
Page generated in 0.12813 seconds with 9 queries