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 August 13, 2012, 12:23 PM #126 Crow Hunter Senior Member   Join Date: January 27, 2012 Posts: 1,078 481 So You are saying that because a mathematical model can't be used to predict ever single variable that might happen in a gun fight that it is useless? So, since the mathematical models that were used to send men to the Moon or the Curiosity Rover to Mars couldn't possibly account for every single variable, that they shouldn't be used and we should just "wing it"? Understand what a mathematical model is for. It allows a method for calculating the statistical outcome of a certain set of variables. While it can't account for reality, it can point someone in the general direction of thought processes and either back up, or dash certain "common sense". There are A LOT of people out there that carry a gun on a daily basis with 5 shots with no reload who believe that they adequately armed for any situation and don't need any "high cap tacticool crap" to defend themselves. What this model demonstrates is potential fallacies with this line of thinking. If someone can perform at an increased performance level than the inputs into this model, under these circumstances, they may be perfectly right. It might actually be like the saloon scene in Unforgiven. To be perfectly honest, the likelihood of sucess of a single person in a gun battle with 2 determined attackers is probably even less than what John posted unless there are some other factors involved. Like someone runs away, they shoot worse than you, you have cover, weapon malfunctions, etc. Most of the time, just the presence of the weapon will be enough to end hostilities, but that isn't something that I would want to count on. I think it is a wonderful tool for getting people to look at their circumstances and possibly "try this at home" with their shooting practice. Set up a couple of targets, draw and fire after having done 15 pushups or running to a table. Then try it one handed or with their off hand, or from the ground as though they had been actually attacked 1st. They may find that they need a different plan or they my get great comfort in their newfound abilities. To Poo Poo statistical modeling because it doesn't fit reality is short sighted and demonstrates a basic misunderstanding of how it is used and how results should be interpreted. __________________ I am no longer participating in gun forums. Good luck.
August 13, 2012, 12:59 PM   #127
481
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Join Date: April 18, 2011
Posts: 498
Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter 481 So You are saying that because a mathematical model can't be used to predict ever single variable that might happen in a gun fight that it is useless?
In this case, yes. It is all just guesswork. Statistical guesswork.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter So, since the mathematical models that were used to send men to the Moon or the Curiosity Rover to Mars couldn't possibly account for every single variable, that they shouldn't be used and we should just "wing it"?
The models used to calculate such landings are based upon physical law- gravitational acceleration & decceleration, momentum, the amount of impulse a propellant/rocket motor can produce, they produce real results confirmable through trial and error. The statistical model being offered here is a probabalistic model- it, at best, offers what might happen if some variable(s) happens to be in place at the right time and the right place. There is much more uncertainty there than in the orbital mechanics equations you allude to. It's a common error.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter While it can't account for reality, it can point someone in the general direction of thought processes and either back up, or dash certain "common sense".
DING DING DING DING DING DING

We have a winner! Why should I accept such a thing if it can't account for reality?

If someone lacks the common sense to make these realizations, no amount of math is going to help them and they probably shouldn't be carrying a gun in the first place. No amount of math can fix stupid.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter There are A LOT of people out there that carry a gun on a daily basis with 5 shots with no reload who believe that they adequately armed for any situation and don't need any "high cap tacticool crap" to defend themselves. What this model demonstrates is potential fallacies with this line of thinking. If someone can perform at an increased performance level than the inputs into this model, under these circumstances, they may be perfectly right. It might actually be like the saloon scene in Unforgiven. To be perfectly honest, the likelihood of sucess of a single person in a gun battle with 2 determined attackers is probably even less than what John posted unless there are some other factors involved. Like someone runs away, they shoot worse than you, you have cover, weapon malfunctions, etc. Most of the time, just the presence of the weapon will be enough to end hostilities, but that isn't something that I would want to count on.
Look at that. You did that all without needing to resort to a probabalistic model. Why resort to all sorts of fuzzy math, when you can just apply common sense?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter I think it is a wonderful tool for getting people to look at their circumstances and possibly "try this at home" with their shooting practice. Set up a couple of targets, draw and fire after having done 15 pushups or running to a table. Then try it one handed or with their off hand, or from the ground as though they had been actually attacked 1st.
None of that requires a model or a calculator. Done that sorta stuff several times, very useful.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter They may find that they need a different plan or they my get great comfort in their newfound abilities. To Poo Poo statistical modeling because it doesn't fit reality is short sighted and demonstrates a basic misunderstanding of how it is used and how results should be interpreted.
You've already said that such a model cannot account for reality.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter While it can't account for reality...
There is no point in using it if it cannot account for reality and I am not silly enough to waste my time trying to make it stick.

Last edited by 481; August 13, 2012 at 01:30 PM.

August 13, 2012, 02:12 PM   #128
Crow Hunter
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Quote:
 In this case, yes. It is all just guesswork. Statistical guesswork.
All statistic predictions are guesswork. The difference is that there is a framework that is utilized that approximates a result based on the inputs used. If done correctly, those results will approximate reality within the confidence interval used.

Quote:
 The models used to calculate such landings are based upon physical law- gravitational acceleration & decceleration, momentum, the amount of impulse a propellant/rocket motor can produce, they produce real results confirmable through trial and error. The statistical model being offered here is a probabalistic model- it, at best, offers what might happen if some variable(s) happens to be in place at the right time and the right place. There is much more uncertainty there than in the orbital mechanics equations you allude to. It's a common error.
Yes, it is a probabalistic model, all models are. There is no way to account for an infinite number of variable in any calculation. So you look at the variables that are statistically probable and discount the others as negligable either in likelihood or magnitude. Since it is impossible have a working model of Mars or the Moon here on earth, they had to make "assumptions" based on statistics and model them as part of their calculations.

Quote:
 Look at that. You did that all without needing to resort to a probabalistic model. Why resort to all sorts of fuzzy math, when you can just apply common sense?
Because "common sense" isn't really all that common. I can guarantee you that at least 75% of the CCW carriers (probably more than that based on the cross section of posters I have seen reading on this forum) in the US have never even thought about what they would do if they had to shoot one handed due to injury or other circumstances and firmly believe that they will do "just as good" in real life as they do on a static range AND most of them probably CAN'T shoot as good as your average police officer.

Therefore, if you take the average hit percentage of police officers and apply it statistically only taking into account the factors of the number of rounds and hit percentage and see that it is statistically nearly impossible to prevail with only 5 shots, maybe someone will take that to heart and decide to practice realistically, and arm themselves realistically and use tactics best suited to their weapon of choice.

I don't see why anyone would have issue with this. It isn't supposed to be reality. But if it makes just one single person do something to improve their chances in real life, it wasn't a waste of time.
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August 13, 2012, 02:27 PM   #129
481
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Join Date: April 18, 2011
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter Yes, it is a probabalistic model, all models are. There is no way to account for an infinite number of variable in any calculation. So you look at the variables that are statistically probable and discount the others as negligable either in likelihood or magnitude. Since it is impossible have a working model of Mars or the Moon here on earth, they had to make "assumptions" based on statistics and model them as part of their calculations.
Looks like NASA's model works well enough. The proposed one under discussion and unproven as it stands, not so much.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter Because "common sense" isn't really all that common. I can guarantee you that at least 75% of the CCW carriers (probably more than that based on the cross section of posters I have seen reading on this forum) in the US have never even thought about what they would do if they had to shoot one handed due to injury or other circumstances and firmly believe that they will do "just as good" in real life as they do on a static range AND most of them probably CAN'T shoot as good as your average police officer.
You don't need a model for that. If I am disabled (to some varying extent), by something then my abilities suffer. To what extent is an unknown. The model has no way to account for a condition like this unless you make an assumption as to how much you will be disabled. More guesswork.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter Therefore, if you take the average hit percentage of police officers and apply it statistically only taking into account the factors of the number of rounds and hit percentage and see that it is statistically nearly impossible to prevail with only 5 shots, maybe someone will take that to heart and decide to practice realistically, and arm themselves realistically and use tactics best suited to their weapon of choice. I don't see why anyone would have issue with this. It isn't supposed to be reality. But if it makes just one single person do something to improve their chances in real life, it wasn't a waste of time.
I am sure the figures, whatever one enters, will always work out. The sum or product of two given numbers will always be the same. It's the numerous, and often dubious, underlying assumptions that make this particular specimen a loser.

Last edited by 481; August 13, 2012 at 02:32 PM.

August 13, 2012, 02:29 PM   #130
Bartholomew Roberts
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by 481 By your own admission, you make several assumptions (probability of making a hit, etc) that may or may not hold true under all conditions and then proceed to explore hypothetical situations using those as a basis for that work.
Well, I am convinced. No more making any assumption that doesn't hold true under all conditions. I mean, I had always assumed I would not need a .375 H&H to kill a charging elephant; but clearly, there are conditions where that was necessary for others. So because my assumption failed to hold true for all conditions, it must be an invalid or useless assumption, yes?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 481 The models used to calculate such landings are based upon physical law- gravitational acceleration & decceleration, momentum, the amount of impulse a propellant/rocket motor can produce, they produce real results confirmable through trial and error.
So those models produce real results confirmable through trial and error; but the number of rounds you will have in your firearm during a gunfight is an arbitrary and unknown number over which we have no control?

August 13, 2012, 02:56 PM   #131
481
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Join Date: April 18, 2011
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bart Well, I am convinced. No more making any assumption that doesn't hold true under all conditions. I mean, I had always assumed I would not need a .375 H&H to kill a charging elephant; but clearly, there are conditions where that was necessary for others. So because my assumption failed to hold true for all conditions, it must be an invalid or useless assumption, yes?
If you want to be silly, I guess so.

I said "may or may not hold true" not "won't hold true under all conditions". Using what I said within an incorrect context is a faulty argument device.

So much for rational debate, huh?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bart So those models produce real results confirmable through trial and error; but the number of rounds you will have in your firearm during a gunfight is an arbitrary and unknown number over which we have no control?
Sure. There's uncertainty everywhere.

August 13, 2012, 02:59 PM   #132
Crow Hunter
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Quote:
 You don't need a model for that. If I am disabled (to some varying extent), by something then my abilities suffer. To what extent is an unknown. The model has no way to account for a condition like this unless you make an assumption as to how much you will be disabled. More guesswork.
No you absolutely don't need a model for that. But people don't always think about it until someone does something like what John has done.

He laid it out and demonstrated statistically just 5 rounds with no reload might not be enough with the assumptions/inputs he stated.

Now if someone looks at that and says, "Wow. I actually can't hit the bullseye with all N# shots in my XXXX gun with a 2 handed hold on a square range 100% of the time on demand with only 1 target. Maybe I should seek competent training and/or practice more, or choose a different weapon than what I use today." That is a good thing.

In reality if you don't "Go stupid places, with stupid people and do stupid stuff" you probably won't need a gun at all, and the times that you do, just having it and maybe firing a shot or 2 will be enough to end a confrontation.

But "reality" isn't what this is about. It is statistical probablities given a specific set of variables.

I hope people look at it and it prompts them to think about what it actually means without getting to far into the probabilities of those specific variables happening and use it to evaluate their own Mindset, Tactics, Skill and Gear.
__________________
I am no longer participating in gun forums.

Good luck.

 August 13, 2012, 03:11 PM #133 MLeake Senior Member   Join Date: November 15, 2007 Location: Outside KC, MO Posts: 10,128 481, you keep making comments like "so much for rational debate..." You accuse others of emotionalism, or of attacks... But you keep using words like "silly," "foolish," "loser," etc. You also don't give straight answers. In an earlier post, you claimed you had only said you were through responding to me; however, after reviewing earlier posts of yours, you had said you were through with "this silly wild goose chase," and other such things before I had joined the conversation. And, of course, after specifically (so you claim) saying you meant you were no longer going to respond to me, you responded to me. Color me surprised. You aren't attempting a rational debate. You aren't trying to contribute to discussion. You are poo-pooing a basic statistical model, for its being a basic statistical model. You are behaving in an obnoxious manner, and accusing others of behaving obnoxiously. It is pointless for anybody to argue with you, as your argument will change each time. By the way, my first post, which you found rude, etc, was based on your previous arguments, and your signature line about being in "a state of reality." In other words, it was derived from your inputs - so your reaction to it was interesting. I am no longer going to argue with you in this thread, because other than this recent sidetrack (aka 481), it has been a good discussion and I would prefer not to derail it, by feeding your standup routine.
August 13, 2012, 03:12 PM   #134
481
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter He laid it out and demonstrated statistically just 5 rounds with no reload might not be enough with the assumptions/inputs he stated.
We can arrive at the same conclusion just as easily without punching calculator buttons.

And by mere fiat, one can change those assumptions/inputs to justify that that very same arrangement will be enough.

This is just another example of paralysis via over-analysis. You can make even the simplest decisions far more intricate than they need to be. The return for all of the extra effort isn't there.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter But "reality" isn't what this is about.
Yep. So that'd be fantasy?

Last edited by 481; August 13, 2012 at 03:18 PM.

August 13, 2012, 03:14 PM   #135
Bartholomew Roberts
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Join Date: June 12, 2000
Location: Texas and Oklahoma area
Posts: 6,104
Quote:
 Originally Posted by 481 I said "may or may not hold true". Using what I said within an incorrect context is a faulty argument device.
1. Well, the context of your comments is here for everyone to read, so I did not feel a need to quote everything you had said in order to establish context. I find that brevity helps keep conversations focused and less likely to be emotional or nonsensical.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 481 "it is in no way an accurate portrayal of reality and no valid conclusions can be drawn from such a highly speculative exercise." "I can vary my assumptions all that I want and that still tells me nothing about a gunfight until it occurs. You can press calculator buttons 'til the numbers wear off of them, but you are still playing "what if" based off of assumed and arbitrary numbers and it doesn't mean anymore than it did without those numbers. Playing "what if" with numbers is still playing "what if". "But it is still assumed and just as pointless. You will, cannot, know what your "hit rate" will be until you're an actual participant in a gunfight." "In this case, yes. It is all just guesswork. Statistical guesswork."
My reading of these comments is that you feel that any assumption that is not always valid is a useless assumption? If I have misunderstood your context, I welcome the chance to better understand what point you were trying to make.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 481 Sure. There's uncertainty everywhere.
Again, this comment is perfectly in line with how I understood your earlier comment. You seem to be insisting on absolute certainty/always valid assumptions. On the one hand, you accuse me of taking your comments out of context and not seeking rational debate, on the other hand, when I ask how it is possible you cannot accurately predict how much ammo you choose to carry on a given day, you respond that the number is arbitrary and there is no way I can know with certainty how much ammo I am going to be carrying?

So which is it - are you saying that I cannot control the amount of ammunition I carry with a high enough certainty to make it practical for the purposes of our discussion or were you being pedantic and insisting on absolute, unshakeable certainty in the amount of ammo I choose to carry while simultaneously complaining about a lack of rational debate and taking things out of context?

August 13, 2012, 03:29 PM   #136
481
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Bart,

This comment, offered up by CrowHunter, is reflective of the problem that I have with using a statistical model to quantify the highly variable tangibles (and intangibles) that are involved in a gun fight.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter To Poo Poo statistical modeling because it doesn't fit reality is short sighted and demonstrates a basic misunderstanding of how it is used and how results should be interpreted.
If it doesn't "fit reality", what's the point? Why bother?

Sure, it's fun to play with numbers and calculators, but the only answers that matter are the ones that actually occur.

I am not saying that you cannot play "what if" 'til your heart's content, but to think that you are going to get real answers from numerical fantasizing is a "fool's errand".

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bart You seem to be insisting on absolute certainty/always valid assumptions.
Yep. Invalid assumptions produce invalid results/conclusions. If I assume that I have a greater "hit rate" then I actually have (an invalid assumption) and draw the conclusion that I need only "x" number of rounds to successfully handle "y" number of attackers (an invalid conclusion) when in fact I'll need more, I am gonna have a really bad day when I come across "y" number of attackers.

Last edited by 481; August 13, 2012 at 03:39 PM.

 August 13, 2012, 03:58 PM #137 481 Senior Member   Join Date: April 18, 2011 Posts: 498 Of course, all of this presumes that we can predict our "hit rates" under the duress of a gun fight to a reasonable degree of precision and certainty. I, for one, cannot.
August 13, 2012, 04:07 PM   #138
Bartholomew Roberts
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Location: Texas and Oklahoma area
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by 481 If it doesn't "fit reality", what's the point? Why bother?
If assumptions always fit reality, they would not be assumptions. However, many of the assumptions we make will fit reality - for example, even without the day ending, I still feel good about not running across any charging elephants. That assumption, while not always valid for all people in all conditions, has a high probability to be a good assumption for planning my day. I also feel safe about assuming that if I start the day with 10 rounds in my pistol, I'll have 10 rounds in it when a gunfight starts. That won't fit reality perfectly; but it will fit it often enough that planning that way makes more sense than not planning that way.

Quote:
 I am not saying that you cannot play "what if" 'til your heart's content, but to think that you are going to get real answers from numerical fantasizing is a "fool's errand".
Like a lot of your statements in this thread, that one strikes me as being so obvious I am not sure why you said it. Were you under the impression that I, or some other poster, was convinced that the original framework here was for the purpose of predicting gunfights and that we could do away with all that training and just carry a really big magazine?

Quote:
 If I assume that I have a greater "hit rate" then I actually have (an invalid assumption) and draw the conclusion that I need only "x" number of rounds to successfully handle "y" number of attackers (an invalid conclusion) when in fact I'll need more, I am gonna have a really bad day when I come across "y" number of attackers.
This is the same as GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out). If you input bad data into a model, you'll get results that don't reflect reality. You write as though you have a problem with the model; but all of your substantial complaints seem to revolve around the data rather than the model. Specifically, I understand you as saying that none of that data (hit rate, amount of ammo available to you, number of attackers, number of hits necessary to stop attackers) can be known with absolute certainty.

I found the framework here to be quite useful for planning purposes despite the uncertainty around the numbers. For example, if you shoot as well as the average big city police officer and have two attackers (the most common assault scenario), 12 rounds will give you a ~50% chance. 10 rounds will give you a ~36% chance. If you happen to be someone carrying a compact Glock with no spare, that is an illuminating difference spelled out a lot more clearly in math than it can be in words.

I think in terms of a rough analysis of how much ammo is enough, the model presented here makes a good planning tool. And like most planning tools, it is easy enough to hedge uncertainty by lowering your expectations if you don't like the assumptions used here.

Quote:
 Of course, all of this presumes that we can predict our "hit rates" under the duress of a gun fight to a reasonable degree of precision and certainty.
No; but we can look at what the mean hit rates of people who have been in gun fights as a rough guide to what to expect from similarly trained shooters. If we want to be especially cautious we can even halve those numbers.

And the numbers really need not be precise; because unlike the Price is Right, we don't have to be the closest to the actual number. We just need to not go over it.

August 13, 2012, 04:20 PM   #139
Crow Hunter
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Quote:
 If it doesn't "fit reality", what's the point? Why bother?
Just because something doesn't model reality exactly, doesn't mean it doesn't have merit. You can't know that the temperature tomorrow is going to be vastly lower than it is today. But that doesn't mean that you won't know enough to not walk outside wearing a parka in 95F heat. What John did is say if given X then B is your chances of success. I don't think it is or should be construed to be the end all and be all of gunfight analysis.

Quote:
 And by mere fiat, one can change those assumptions/inputs to justify that that very same arrangement will be enough.
Yes you can. But your inputs might be looked upon as suspect. 100% hit rate is not something that is likely to occur. While a 30-40% hit rate is what has been demonstrated by police officers in many regions of the country.

That is part of the power of statistics. It allows you to model different inputs quickly and easily once the model is built. It allows you to get a good indication of how things probably will happen given the initial assumptions. But that doesn't mean it reflects reality exactly, it doesn't need to for what it does.

So, your argument, in a nutshell, is that it is a waste of time trying to model what could happen in a situation where you had to defend yourself against 2 assailants becaue it is obvious that a person shouldn't be carrying a 5 shot revolver with no reload.

Why shouldn't they?
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August 13, 2012, 04:36 PM   #140
481
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter So, your argument, in a nutshell, is that it is a waste of time trying to model what could happen in a situation where you had to defend yourself against 2 assailants becaue it is obvious that a person shouldn't be carrying a 5 shot revolver with no reload.
Yes.

That carrying a 5 shot revolver with no reload is a bad idea no matter the number of assailants I meet requires no model to ascertain.

Why make the process more complicated than it need be?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter Yes you can. But your inputs might be looked upon as suspect. 100% hit rate is not something that is likely to occur. While a 30-40% hit rate is what has been demonstrated by police officers in many regions of the country.

That 30-40% hit rate average is not a guarantee. I'll bet that within that study you'll find at least one poor guy who couldn't get a shot off for whatever reason. So much for the average.

Last edited by 481; August 13, 2012 at 04:50 PM.

August 13, 2012, 04:48 PM   #141
481
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bart No; but we can look at what the mean hit rates of people who have been in gun fights as a rough guide to what to expect from similarly trained shooters. If we want to be especially cautious we can even halve those numbers. And the numbers really need not be precise; because unlike the Price is Right, we don't have to be the closest to the actual number. We just need to not go over it.
Bart,

I wish it were that simple.

The numbers had better be precise because what goes down on the asphalt is staying on the asphalt.

It's your life to gamble with.

I can't delude myself into thinking that this model tells me anything that is not already apparent without the model and the risk of depending upon it for all that is dear to me is not an option. It could offer an "incorrect" prediction just as easily as it offers a "correct" prediction and there is no way to say for sure until it happens.

I can get to the same place by just flipping a coin- "heads" I make it, "tails" I don't.

August 13, 2012, 05:25 PM   #142
Crow Hunter
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Quote:
 Yes. That carrying a 5 shot revolver with no reload is a bad idea no matter the number of assailants I meet requires no model to ascertain. Why make the process more complicated than it need be?
How do you know this?

Quote:
 there is no way to say for sure until it happens.
Have you personally lost gunfights with this combinations enough times to know that it is a bad idea?

Or are you, like most people, making an accidental statistical analysis without actually putting pen to paper or punching a calculator?

Based on your "common sense" approach, there is no way to know that 5 shots won't be "enough" until the event actually happens.

So what makes this analysis suspect but your personal analysis "common sense"?
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August 13, 2012, 06:32 PM   #143
481
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter How do you know this?
I used common sense. Didn't need a calculator either!

Quote:
 Have you personally lost gunfights with this combinations enough times to know that it is a bad idea?
That's very funny. At least you haven't succumbed to an attack of "the vapors" like someone else who recently bailed out of this thread.

You've got a good sense of humor and that's gotta count for something. And I didn't need a model to figure that out either.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrowHunter Or are you, like most people, making an accidental statistical analysis without actually putting pen to paper or punching a calculator? Based on your "common sense" approach, there is no way to know that 5 shots won't be "enough" until the event actually happens. So what makes this analysis suspect but your personal analysis "common sense"?
Nope, I simply carry as many rounds as I can comfortably carry on my person using the platform of my choice. In this case, I go with a Glock 17 and an "extra" magazine (equipped with a +2 floor plate) loaded with the same JHPs that are in already in the gun. That gives me 37 rounds of 9mm JHPs "on tap". I also practice and train a lot.

No model required.

August 13, 2012, 07:20 PM   #144
OldMarksman
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Quote:
 Posted by 481: Sure, it's fun to play with numbers and calculators, but the only answers that matter are the ones that actually occur.
Well, yeah. The result is what is important.

The question at hand is , how many rounds should one prudently carry? And no, that is not an "assumption." It is an independent variable, to be decided upon in advance. Once the decision is made and acted upon, the number is a fact.

Most of us have been making that decision based on rather subjective thought processes. Few of us have ever really analyzed the "what ifs" that, one way or the other, will ultimately lead to the "answers that will actually occur", which in this case are whether we will survive a violent encounter.

After endless back and forth discussion of whether five rounds are "enough" or whether one might "feel comfortable" with six, John decided to apply a simple analytical approach to test the reasonableness of some of the opinions offered on the subject.

Fact is, one will never know how many rounds are sufficient until the event occurs, and as I have said before on many occasions, even then the number cannot be relied upon for a subsequent encounter. But that does not mean that we cannot do some assessment, based on certain assumptions, of what a reasonable number of rounds might be.

Many people have been happy with five. John's calculations show that five rounds is probably far from the best number to head out of the house with, though you say that that was obvious to you from the beginning.

And John's projection only shows a probability. If one doesn't know how to assess that kind of result, one should not try to use the numbers.

Four rounds might suffice; one may need nine; but how does one decide?

How does one decide? On anything? With projections base on assumptions. The key lies in testing and assessing those assumptions. That takes up back one more time to this:
Quote:
 ...the only answers that matter are the ones that actually occur.
That's true for everything, but one has to make decisions, and to do so one has to make some assumptions. If one is looking for a bank loan or for investments to launch a business venture, one is going to have to make and support some assumptions, one is going to have to show some calculations, and one is going to have to decide upon a plan. And even if one had enough money to start on his or her own, one will have to make a lot of decisions. and those will require projections based on assumptions.

Yes, there will be considerable uncertainty in the projections, and yes, the ultimate results will vary, but no, you won't even get to first base if you simply tell your banker or investors that they will just have to see what occurs when all is said and done.

Or if you prefer--the question of how many troops to commit to take an objective will have to be decided upon in advance, based on assumptions and projections and calculations. One cannot just throw up one's hands because there is uncertainty.

The same thing applies here. One cannot simply say, "I'll just grab the gun the guy at the shop sold me. After all, I won't know whether five shots are sufficient until they are not".

You have said, "That carrying a 5 shot revolver with no reload is a bad idea no matter the number of assailants I meet requires no model to ascertain." OK. Many people have offered the opinion that, because many gunfights are said to be over in three rounds, five should be plenty. It is for those people for whom John's calculations will likely prove illustrative. You obviously did not need them.

Personally, I believe that John's contribution here has been among the best I have seen. By the way, I often carried a five shot revolver. Not any more.

John's model is simplistic. One could make it more elegant, and one could put a lot more effort into assessing the hit rate assumptions based on extensive FoF simulations, but toward what end? The uncertainty in the number of hits required would remain very significant. John did not set out to create an accurate estimation tool. He set out to do what he said he set out to do, and I think he succeeded admirably.

August 13, 2012, 07:23 PM   #145
OldMarksman
Staff

Join Date: June 8, 2008
Posts: 2,691
Quote:
 Posted by 481: Nope, I simply carry as many rounds as I can comfortably carry on my person using the platform of my choice. In this case, I go with a Glock 17 and an "extra" magazine (equipped with a +2 floor plate) loaded with the same JHPs that are in already in the gun. That gives me 37 rounds of 9mm JHPs "on tap".
Wow!

 August 13, 2012, 08:01 PM #146 BurgerBoy Member   Join Date: August 11, 2012 Location: Western Kentucky Posts: 62 That's why I carry a 9mm that's 13+1 and a spare magazine with me. The ammo is JHP. __________________ Vietnam Veteran - 1966-1970 USASA Carry Pistol - Glock Gen 3 23, .40 Caliber. Carry Pistol - Glock Gen 3 19, 9mm. Self Defense Stories
August 13, 2012, 09:40 PM   #147
481
Senior Member

Join Date: April 18, 2011
Posts: 498
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Oldmarksman: Wow!
Why do you say that, OM?

 August 13, 2012, 09:41 PM #148 Glenn Dee Senior Member   Join Date: September 9, 2009 Location: South Florida Posts: 1,488 I carry a 5 shot "J: frame with two speed strips... Thats 17 rounds... and comfortable and easy to hide.
August 13, 2012, 10:31 PM   #149
Nanuk
Senior Member

Join Date: January 2, 2005
Location: Where the deer and the antelope roam.
Posts: 1,779
Quote:
 All statistic predictions are guesswork. The difference is that there is a framework that is utilized that approximates a result based on the inputs used. If done correctly, those results will approximate reality within the confidence interval used.
You mean a S.W.A.G.?
__________________
My rifle and pistol are tools, I am the weapon.

 August 13, 2012, 10:50 PM #150 Nanuk Senior Member   Join Date: January 2, 2005 Location: Where the deer and the antelope roam. Posts: 1,779 I can see 481's problem with the process. There is no real data, just 5 assumptions lumped together mathematically to prove a point. I do not disagree with the point, just the methodology. I have written a number of operational plans, in that context an assumption is more like; if we call for a fire truck we can assume that one will respond. It is an assumption of fact, not fantasy. Assumptions without fact will get you in trouble every time. the assumptions may be Correct for John, but not for everyone. Not everyone possesses the same skill level or the same ability to maintain a level head. Every shooting is different, was it at bad breath distance or 10 yards? That makes a huge difference in the amounts of hits, current LE data shows this. In the famous Miami FBI shootout, one agent missed 15 shots a bad breath distance, it happens. Carry enough gun, with enough ammo and master the gun you carry. Get training and realistic practice. Like Bill Jordan said, "There is no second place winner". __________________ My rifle and pistol are tools, I am the weapon.

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