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Old February 24, 2012, 07:43 PM   #1
Goldy
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Ammo Shortages Again?

I just got a flyer from Brownells. They are claiming ammo is goning to get scarce again.

Quote:
Quantities of .223 and 5.56 that seemed to manufacturers at the SHOT Show like they should be plenty for the year are depleted already. Another great friend of ours had an entire warehouse of 5.56 go out in ONE purchase order!
Brass, powder and bullet prices have almost doubled in the last five years.
How much more can we take?
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Old February 24, 2012, 07:52 PM   #2
Mike Irwin
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I'll issue the same warning here that I issued in a thread in Rifles.

This topic of discussion can remain open (with consent of GDF's regular mod squad) ONLY as long as the discussion doesn't:

1. Dip into politics.

2. Dip into "what if" survivalist scenarios.

3. Dip into baseless conspiracy theories about why there may be an ammo shortage.

Broach ANY of those and the thread gets locked down and the poster earns some bonus points (infraction points).

Thanks in advance.
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Old February 24, 2012, 08:11 PM   #3
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That's interesting because my local discount store recently ran bare of most popular ammo. They had recovered long ago from the election shortage and were amply stocked for the last year. They even lifted their ammo limits per purchase. Usually there were dozens of boxes of Federal XM193 about $7/box as well as Federal and Remington bulk packs. And they usually have several 250 rd bulk packs of Remington UMC 9mm, .40 and .45.

I went in over the weekend to get some .38 and they had hardly anything in .223, 9mm, .40, .45ACP. Oddly, they finally did have UMC bulk packs of .380ACP.

I asked the counter lady when they are going to get resupplied and she said they can't get any in for some time (indeternminate). I passed it off to just a glitch in their ordering system, but I am hearing scattered reports of increased demand and dwindling supplies. Some places seem to still have lots in stock and others are marginal.

I am just going through my inventories this time of year and topping off on reloading components and some secondary cartridges, so it won't matter much to me if there is another shortage, I am set for a while. I think it best to try to gradually accumulate a buffer supply to carry through dry spells, rather than try to scramble just before another hits.

It will be interesting to see if the draw down in the military forces will result in more abundant supply of ammo commercially. One thing driving demand though is a flood of new shooters and more frequent shooters. We may have doubled or tripled the commercial market just from those new/frequent increases.
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Old February 25, 2012, 12:43 AM   #4
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Quote:
One thing driving demand though is a flood of new shooters and more frequent shooters.
Yes, I thought the same thing, but have no idea what the real numbers might be. I know when I go to the local ranges they seem to have more business and a lot of first time shooters taking lessons. Also, I constantly hear about someone getting a license to carry as Georgia continues to become more firearms friendly.

I wonder if a lot of it is sort of a “monkey see monkey do” reaction. Simply the fear of an ammo shortage is enough to motivate some people to stock up which in turn reduces the on hand supply motivating others to stock up.

Another issue is more and more folks are buying ammo off the internet and to get the really good deals they buy in bulk. So, even though they may not shoot anymore often they buy in larger quantities resulting in more variation in supply.

Also, while avoiding pure politics I do not think you can ignore the impact that the upcoming election is having. Regardless of how rational or irrational it may be it does motivate some folks to buy.
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Old February 25, 2012, 01:26 AM   #5
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Yes I notice this also, even my bud told me he had to go to a few different stores to find ammo for 9mm this week.
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Old February 25, 2012, 02:21 AM   #6
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No ammo shortage in my area of Central Texas.
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Old February 25, 2012, 12:14 PM   #7
Walklightly
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Ha ha ha, I have no money, but a "bunch" of ammo. I was ammo, before ammo (Obama) was uncool.

I'll live, good luck.
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Old February 25, 2012, 10:21 PM   #8
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In the Western, WA (Seattle) area there is no ammo shortage and no sign of an impending change in the supply chain. Store shelves well stocked. Indoor pistol range was busy as hell today. Outdoor rifle range was busy as hell last weekend.

There was a blip in my personal supply chain though. I forgot to pickup a couple boxes of Rem 9mm GS 124gr JHP the last time I was at Walmart. So I had to pay nearly twice the price for the same ammo at the hardware store. Silly me.
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Old February 25, 2012, 11:13 PM   #9
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No shortage at the gunshow today. All sorts of good stuff, and some of it priced nicely. Same story at the big gunstore, they are loaded to the gills.

But I'm still maintaining a sensible reserve.
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Old February 26, 2012, 02:07 AM   #10
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I guess after the last one and after the market recovered and we didnt prepare ourselves after that then we can just blame ourself!
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Old February 26, 2012, 12:49 PM   #11
bbqbob51
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Let's talk ourselves into it and create another shortage.
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Old February 26, 2012, 12:50 PM   #12
Master Blaster 2
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I have a nice hord of ammo that should last my grand kids after i die. Good as gold.
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Old February 26, 2012, 01:10 PM   #13
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Quote:
But I'm still maintaining a sensible reserve.
Yeah that's what I'm doing too. I don't see prices going down, may as well buy it now if you can afford it. Better to have too much and use it down the road than be out and not able to get it. The year following last election was terrible. I even had trouble finding reloading components at times.
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Old February 26, 2012, 02:02 PM   #14
lee n. field
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No apparent shortage at Walmart or the farm store here ("downstate" Ill-i-noise).
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Old February 26, 2012, 02:15 PM   #15
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Quote:
But I'm still maintaining a sensible reserve
I've decided that's the approach I'm taking too. When I have a little extra cash I buy a thousand rounds of something, can't hurt can it?

When I get set up for reloading I'll have a decent stock of brass ready as well.
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Old February 26, 2012, 03:28 PM   #16
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Odd to see 38 specials not in great supply at our local Wal Mart.

They do seem to love to stock the 130 grn standard power full metal jacketed rounds for some reason.

Everything elses is stocked and ready to go.

Luckily,the local range I go to does a great job of reloading cases there and I can buy 38 special reloads for less then nine dollars per fifty.
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Old February 26, 2012, 04:42 PM   #17
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Quote:
Let's talk ourselves into it and create another shortage.
^^^This......I also believe ammo and reloading component retailers are helping by all of these ads warning us about another "possible" shortage. Panic buying is what created the last ammo and reloading component shortage, and odds are it will create the next one too. Just another excuse to jack up the price.
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Old February 26, 2012, 06:19 PM   #18
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All I nedd is some bullet from MBC & Berrys
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Old February 26, 2012, 09:21 PM   #19
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Quote:
Brass, powder and bullet prices have almost doubled in the last five years.How much more can we take?
Yep, they are getting real close to what we paid for components back in 1985, when the average wage was half of what it is now..........

Called supply and demand, when the Fed is now determined to have military brass shredded an sold to the Chinese at a loss instead of selling it at a profit to ammo makers like Georgia Arms, you can expect the costs to go up as the Fed moves furtively to institute their form of gun control. That is reality
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Old February 26, 2012, 09:46 PM   #20
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Keep in mind that the bulk lots of ammo tend to ebb and flow rather greatly.

There's not much XM193 or M655 out there right now at decent prices like there had been even two or three months ago. That's because the production run is now sold out. Same thing with imported ammo- when a shipment comes in it's everywhere then you never see it again (a while back I remember seeing a ton of Centurion branded ammunition; it was great stuff and by the time I realized it was worth stocking up on it was all gone, never to be seen again).

Factor in the usual "if things are uncertain, buy ammo" and the increasing numbers of gun sales, and it's a recipe for somewhat tighter supplies. However, I've not seen anything like it was in late '08/early '09, when you couldn't buy .380ACP for anything and most other calibers were in extremely short supply. There's ammo out there for everything, but it may not be exactly what you want or the price you saw a few months back. In other words, like it usually is.
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Old February 26, 2012, 09:53 PM   #21
alloy
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Locally it seems the stocks are turning over faster but not running out.
Maybe early November will lighten up whatever high demands there are.
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Old February 26, 2012, 10:17 PM   #22
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Quote:
However, I've not seen anything like it was in late '08/early '09, when you couldn't buy .380ACP for anything and most other calibers were in extremely short supply.
Ditto - late '08/early '09 was when I finally got into reloading. Even that was difficult, since my LGS was limiting primer sales to 300 per visit.
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Old February 26, 2012, 11:56 PM   #23
tygarys
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Plenty here in mid NM, the local Sportsmans Warehouse has pallets of the Federal 5.56 bulk packs in ammo cans. Just wish they would stock something other than Tula in 30 carbine.
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Old February 27, 2012, 12:03 AM   #24
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The shortage will be caused by the thundering IDIOT herd in a panic.

The "ammo shortages" are caused by people freaking out over nothing, and companies like Brownell's apparently are going to try and feed the fire to make a few extra sales....
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Old February 27, 2012, 12:37 AM   #25
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I see ammo on sale everywhere I go. It's obviously not selling so some retailers feel the need to create a phony shortage.
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