The Firing Line Forums

Go Back   The Firing Line Forums > The Conference Center > Law and Civil Rights

View Poll Results: What do you predict will happen on the Federal level? (Choose all that apply)
Completely outlaw all guns (except for Government and rare cases) 3 8.11%
Repeal 2nd Amendment to U.S. Constitution 4 10.81%
Overturn Columbia v Heller 1 2.70%
Overturn McDonald v Chicago 1 2.70%
Gun registration for all guns 15 40.54%
Increase tax on guns and/or ammunition 28 75.68%
Increase size and number of gun free zones 15 40.54%
Make it generally more difficult for legitimate gun stores to operate 27 72.97%
Expand violations and increase punishment for gun owning, carrying and/or transport 18 48.65%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 37. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old January 30, 2014, 05:06 AM   #1
ATN082268
Member
 
Join Date: December 2, 2013
Posts: 97
What do you predict will happen on the Federal level?

What do you predict will happen on the Federal level? (Choose all that apply)
ATN082268 is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 06:57 AM   #2
JimmyR
Senior Member
 
Join Date: February 4, 2012
Posts: 991
None of the above.
JimmyR is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 07:23 AM   #3
Don P
Senior Member
 
Join Date: December 17, 2005
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,763
Talk about poking a big hole in the hornets nest
All the above is poppy-cock, just my .02 worth
__________________
NRA Life Member, NRA Range Safety Officer, IDPA Safety Officer
As you are, I once was, As I am, You will be.
Don P is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 07:55 AM   #4
Ben Towe
Senior Member
 
Join Date: March 6, 2009
Location: Middle Tennessee
Posts: 1,120
I would say none of the above. They couldn't get a bill through the Senate at the height of the hysteria, and I don't see them getting one through in the foreseeable future. No one wants to commit political suicide.
__________________
'Merica: Back to back World War Champs
Ben Towe is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 08:17 AM   #5
thallub
Senior Member
 
Join Date: November 20, 2007
Location: South Western OK
Posts: 2,061
None of the above.
thallub is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 09:15 AM   #6
Spats McGee
Staff
 
Join Date: July 28, 2010
Location: Arkansas
Posts: 4,947
In what time frame?
__________________
A gunfight is not the time to learn new skills.

If you ever have a real need for more than a couple of magazines, your problem is not a shortage of magazines. It's a shortage of people on your side of the argument. -- Art Eatman
Spats McGee is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 09:59 AM   #7
Grizz12
Senior Member
 
Join Date: December 11, 2012
Posts: 272
they will regulate (executive orders) where they cannot not legislate
Grizz12 is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 10:43 AM   #8
Glenn E. Meyer
Staff
 
Join Date: November 17, 2000
Posts: 15,501
As Spats said - this poll has real little validity due to time scale vagueness, a set of questions that have no real alternatives except to be scared.

I really don't see the use of continuing it. But I won't close it. Someone might suggest a realistic approach and discussion of factors that would influence federal gun legislation and/or executive orders.
__________________
NRA, TSRA, IDPA, NTI, Polite Soc.
http://www.teddytactical.com/archive...05_Feature.htm
Being an Academic Shooter
http://www.teddytactical.com/archive...11_Feature.htm
Being an Active Shooter
Glenn E. Meyer is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 10:52 AM   #9
ken p.
Junior Member
 
Join Date: March 2, 2007
Posts: 6
They will put a tax on ammo and guns that will be so stupid people will not be able to afford to shoot. I don't think they will repeal the 2nd adm. to many people want it and they are afraid to mess with it for fear of not getting elected or re-elected
ken p. is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 11:15 AM   #10
CowTowner
Senior Member
 
Join Date: October 17, 2007
Location: Cowtown of course!
Posts: 1,115
None of the above. At least as they are written.
It is possible the BATFE will be "encouraged" to exercise its ability to change the rules about sales and reporting by the DOJ or POTUS.
We know that type of action will automatically cause the federal court system to be engaged. We've seen it before with the rifle reporting in the border states.
But I don't see any elected officials at the federal level doing much more than that.
That said, having POTUS publically "encourage" states to enact legislative changes could be a very real possiblity.
Just more reason to make sure you get out and vote.
__________________
NRA Chief Range Safety Officer, Home Firearm Safety and Pistol Instructor
"There are three classes of people: those who see, those who see when they are shown, those who do not see."
Leonardo da Vinci
CowTowner is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 11:21 AM   #11
Lt. Skrumpledonk Ret
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 30, 2012
Location: Oh, Jesus.
Posts: 200
I'm of two minds on this. Some days I think the future is bleak, but other days I put stock in the failed post-Newtown gun-grabbers agenda, the recalled legislators in Colorado, the Illinois concealed carry law, amongst many others.
Lt. Skrumpledonk Ret is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 11:27 AM   #12
carguychris
Senior Member
 
Join Date: October 20, 2007
Location: Richardson, TX
Posts: 5,383
Quote:
Originally Posted by CowTowner
None of the above. At least as they are written.
+1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CowTowner
It is possible the BATFE will be "encouraged" to exercise its ability to change the rules about sales and reporting by the DOJ or POTUS... That said, having POTUS publically "encourage" states to enact legislative changes could be a very real possiblity.
Agreed. I also expect another push to enact UBC's, with another badly written and overbroad Senate bill. It will fail, and its sponsors will secretly expect this ahead of time, because its real and unstated purpose is to be used as a club to beat their opponents with during the next election cycle.
__________________
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules... MARK IT ZERO!!" - Walter Sobchak
carguychris is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 01:01 PM   #13
glh17
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 17, 2013
Location: Middle TN
Posts: 159
I'd be surprised if any of that occurred in the near future. Of course, there may be some proposals but I don't see any of the things mentioned passing.

At most, there might be some enhanced background checks with an emphasis on mental health, but I'm not sure anything beyond the current restriction is very practical. Outside of a handful of states and few congressional districts in gun favorable states there isn't alot of support for stronger gun control. That doesn't mean that it will be easy to repeal existing restrictions. Only that it will be difficult to get more restrictions at the federal level.
glh17 is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 05:45 PM   #14
BobCat45
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 18, 2004
Location: East Bernard, TX
Posts: 151
I have to agree with Lt. Skrumpledonk Ret - two minds.

My first reaction was, they will raise taxes and fees to absurd levels to discourage what they cannot outlaw. They'll demonize guns like they did tobacco, and people will get brainwashed and go along.

But I'm reminded of my bother's response to me, when I expressed great anxiety in about 1996 in the wake of the 1994 AWB and hysteria.

He said (not an exact quote but as close as I recall), "Look, we both have more guns and better guns than we did twenty yeas ago. We have concealed carry licenses, which was impossible then. Take a deep breath!"

I've watched the gun grabbers since the early 1970s. The pendulum swings. Illinois (my home state, and a good place to be "from") was the last holdout on concealed carry - now at least theoretically possible in all 50 states. It may swing toward more restrictions - but I do not think the American people are wiling to give up the right and means of self defense.
__________________
Retractable claws - the *original* concealed carry

http://www.bayourifles.org
TinyURL.com/qgdojvh
BobCat45 is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 06:19 PM   #15
WardenWolf
Junior member
 
Join Date: December 12, 2013
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 135
I predict their primary tactic will be to increase the range of disqualifiers, particularly on the mental health front. I expect they will try to get automatic disqualification upon the diagnosis of any of various conditions, and mandatory reporting from doctors of these diagnoses. Diagnosed with depression? Disqualified for life, with no hope of appeal.
WardenWolf is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 07:03 PM   #16
Tom Servo
Staff
 
Join Date: September 27, 2008
Location: Foothills of the Appalachians
Posts: 10,017
Quote:
What do you predict will happen on the Federal level?
Short answer: whatever we allow to happen.

If gun owners take the issue seriously, and if they get involved on the local and state level, we have the numbers and the clout to stop just about anything.
__________________
In the depth of winter I finally learned that there was in me an invincible summer.
--Albert Camus
Tom Servo is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 07:06 PM   #17
TXAZ
Senior Member
 
Join Date: September 5, 2010
Location: TEXAS!
Posts: 1,261
As thallub said, none of the above. All sides will more or less hold their positions. Although some believe the gun grabbers will prevail, and we've seen (IMHO) significant abuse of Executive Orders and circumvention of constitutional rights attempting to round up weapons, DC is a pendulum, and it appears to be moving back toward center after 5 failed years.

The biggest likely change, if any, will be nada.
__________________
!أنا لست إرهابي
TXAZ is offline  
Old January 30, 2014, 08:22 PM   #18
raimius
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 27, 2008
Posts: 1,304
If we take losses, I expect them more from the judiciary doing the 2nd Amendment Two-step or "intermediate" rational-basis and accepting whatever the state argues as a legitimate reason. Also, state-level losses like NY "SAFE" (puke) are likely if we get another media-frenzy.

That said, there are a few in the judicial system who are either supporters or at least willing to apply intermediate or strict scrutiny, even if they don't like it.

Also, quite a few states are friendly to apathetic with legislation.
raimius is offline  
Old January 31, 2014, 09:56 AM   #19
Glenn E. Meyer
Staff
 
Join Date: November 17, 2000
Posts: 15,501
I think that is on the money.

All ready anti states will proceed with more and stricter legislation.

If the antigun major party has control of White House and legislature - they will attempt new bans, etc. It will depend if their majority is filibuster resistant.

If the so-called progun party gets in - they may not pass new restrictions but will do nothing proactive to expand rights. They may go with new restrictions if some tragedy moves them to pander.

On the SCOTUS level - wily old Bird Scalia did his clucking and laid the two eggs - one seemed to have attached positively in IL. The other hatched out reasonable restrictions across the country and anti states will run with that bird. The SCOTUS will not take new cases that might strengthen rights and those state laws will stand.

This is worth what you paid for it. The real action will be on the state levels.
__________________
NRA, TSRA, IDPA, NTI, Polite Soc.
http://www.teddytactical.com/archive...05_Feature.htm
Being an Academic Shooter
http://www.teddytactical.com/archive...11_Feature.htm
Being an Active Shooter
Glenn E. Meyer is offline  
Old January 31, 2014, 11:24 AM   #20
gc70
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 24, 2005
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 2,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glenn E. Meyer
On the SCOTUS level - wily old Bird Scalia did his clucking and laid the two eggs - one seemed to have attached positively in IL. The other hatched out reasonable restrictions across the country and anti states will run with that bird. The SCOTUS will not take new cases that might strengthen rights and those state laws will stand.
McDonald following close on the heels of Heller was predictable; Heller did not pose or answer the question, but whether a newly-recognized individual right applied to the states was too obvious a question to not answer quickly.

We did not receive, nor should be have expected, sweeping and comprehensive rulings from a minimalist Court. However, we already see the lower courts sorting through the implications of Heller and McDonald. Some courts are just putting lipstick on the pig of rational basis and calling it a day, but other courts are doing thoughtful analyses and developing standards.

I believe the Supreme Court will not take another mainstream 2A case for some time, not because the Justices do not want to deal with the issues, but to allow time for circuit splits to become more numerous and for the issues involved to become better defined.
gc70 is offline  
Old January 31, 2014, 11:57 AM   #21
Glenn E. Meyer
Staff
 
Join Date: November 17, 2000
Posts: 15,501
I don't make excuses for Scalia - with no offense. I think (and I'm not a constitutional expert) that the decisions went too far in allowing restrictions. They could have hushed up about that. Maybe it was necessary to get votes but I can't tell you that.

Here's another example of what frustrates me:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...n-control-law/

I can't see the SCOTUS dealing with such crap for years and years. This one says that the CT laws don't affect self-defense. That's in line with reasonable restrictions. A shotgun and a SW Model 10 would handle most incidents so that is all you should be able to get?
__________________
NRA, TSRA, IDPA, NTI, Polite Soc.
http://www.teddytactical.com/archive...05_Feature.htm
Being an Academic Shooter
http://www.teddytactical.com/archive...11_Feature.htm
Being an Active Shooter
Glenn E. Meyer is offline  
Old January 31, 2014, 12:39 PM   #22
carguychris
Senior Member
 
Join Date: October 20, 2007
Location: Richardson, TX
Posts: 5,383
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glenn E. Meyer
The real action will be on the state levels.
Due to continuing partisan gridlock at the federal level, I see state action in response to federal inaction as the "New Normal" when it comes to many contentious issues- including but not limited to gun rights.
__________________
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules... MARK IT ZERO!!" - Walter Sobchak
carguychris is offline  
Old January 31, 2014, 01:57 PM   #23
2ndsojourn
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 15, 2013
Location: South Jersey
Posts: 584
From carguychris:
"I see state action in response to federal inaction as the "New Normal".... "

Not to mince words but, I don't see it as 'inaction'. At the federal level, they majority voted a resounding 'NO'. But you're right, the states whose politicians just don't get it will jump on the over-reaching bandwagon.
2ndsojourn is offline  
Old January 31, 2014, 07:15 PM   #24
leadcounsel
Senior Member
 
Join Date: September 8, 2005
Location: Tacoma, WA
Posts: 1,730
Complete repeal would require near unanimous anti-gun House, Senate, President, and Scotus all at the same time. Extraordinarily unlikely. And it would almost certainly result in significant civil unrest and revolution with huge sections of the population in violent revolt, and states defecting from the union. Never going to happen.

Overturning Heller and McDonald is difficult. However, an anti-gun SCOTUS could hear and vote anti-gun in future cases, with stronger anti-gun language, and say they were wrong in Heller, et al. Unlikely but quite possible.

However, the harassing nature of gun grabbers, with incremental attacks, will continue unless gun owners unit and go on the offensive by passing laws preventing it. Taxes, restrictions on locations to carry, 'gotcha' laws, expanding "Lautenberg" style laws to create larger groups of prohibited persons, making it more difficult for gun owners and gun shops, smaller magazines, banning the use of lead, increasing costs of ownership and target shooting, eliminating shooting ranges, etc.

Their goal is to reduce guns in each household, from generation to generation.
__________________
2A: "A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed." US Army Combat Veteran and Paratrooper: OIF (2008, 2009, 2010) and OND (2011). Bronze Star Medal and Meritorious Service Medal recipient. NRA Lifetime Member. I'm a lawyer, but not YOUR lawyer and I have not offered you legal advice.
leadcounsel is offline  
Old March 23, 2014, 10:35 PM   #25
TDL
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 25, 2013
Posts: 138
Quote:
Glenn E. Meyer
Staff
Join Date: November 17, 2000
Posts: 15,012

I think that is on the money.

I agree with all of the listed issues over the next 25 years, except repeal of the second. Repeal of the second is not needed, only a ruling overturning Heller on individual rights. That is not as hard as many people imagine/hope.


I think if you look at this on the level of cultural change; paternalistic government is advancing in all western democracies, including in the US at local state and federal levels -- and so is cultural acceptance of that paternalism.

You will see more microstamping requirements (next will be NY and Md) along with pushes for insurance and smart guns. these will all add costs.

The prognosis on the Supreme court is worse than dire. Actuary tables show we will likely lose at least two court seats, over the next seven years.

I would add:
Major success in reducing gun ranges in every dense populated state.

Continued successful marginalization of gun owners as inherently socially problematic. The pasting the NRA is taking is sticking. yes they got a million new paid members, but the fact that some 55 to 75 million other gun owners wont support them due those owners ignorance on how things work in DC, is sad commentary.

Last edited by Tom Servo; March 23, 2014 at 11:32 PM. Reason: Excised partisan politics
TDL is offline  
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:33 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
This site and contents, including all posts, Copyright © 1998-2014 S.W.A.T. Magazine
Copyright Complaints: Please direct DMCA Takedown Notices to the registered agent: thefiringline.com
Contact Us
Page generated in 0.14804 seconds with 10 queries