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Old December 3, 2012, 10:39 PM   #226
raimius
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That's quite an implied statement!
Probabilities???
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Old December 4, 2012, 10:57 AM   #227
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Originally Posted by raimius
That's quite an implied statement!
Probabilities???
At this point, I think we can read between the lines.

Gura is not going to motion for an en banc hearing. He is busy writing his petition for a grant of cert.
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Old December 4, 2012, 02:00 PM   #228
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En banc is a strong play though.

You can delay CA2 decision and wait for a possibly friendly CA7 decision to head into SCOTUS with more backing.
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Old December 4, 2012, 06:39 PM   #229
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Yeah, but you risk one of "our five" keeling over if you wait another year for a carry case.

I think Gura is trying for summer 2013.
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Old December 4, 2012, 08:50 PM   #230
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SilverBulletZ06 View Post
En banc is a strong play though.

You can delay CA2 decision and wait for a possibly friendly CA7 decision to head into SCOTUS with more backing.

No. There is no point to en banc proceedings. The state would do en banc, we would not for obvious reasons.

Every day in the states that don't allow carry or ration the right, good people are being attacked, murdered, raped, kidnapped & tortured by criminals who know that citizens cannot effectively fight back. The population of those states is 100 million people.

This isn't merely about strategic presentation. It's about saving the mothers, fathers, children & your wife/husband from harm.

Loss by criminal is by far the most haunting & the most damaging to the survivors of death by criminal. I've dealt with people who are inconsolable, & who are merely waiting to die so they can join who they love.

This is why I fight so hard to help Californians & other victims of laws that were passed before they were ever born.




Quote:
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Yeah, but you risk one of "our five" keeling over if you wait another year for a carry case.

I think Gura is trying for summer 2013.
Alan Kachalsky announced this already. Prediction: orals in April, decision last day of June 2013.
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Old December 5, 2012, 05:27 AM   #231
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Let me preface this by saying I am extremely perturbed by the Kachalsky ruling, and disillusioned at the way the carry cases are shaping up. Not on behalf of the SAF, but in the way that the courts are blatantly grasping at any straw and coming up with new and inventive ways to limit 2A rights.

It is fine to take that moral high road, but as it frequently quoted: chess not checkers. What is the point of arguing a bad case in front of SCOTUS when better ones are being heard, we need to gain momentum not try to fight the current. Mothers and daughters who are victims will continue to be so unless we get an affirmative ruling.
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Old December 5, 2012, 10:57 AM   #232
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Kachalsky is a perfectly clean, well-designed case for US Supreme Court review. Gura did this one very right .

* It features multiple plaintiffs so that the loss of any one plaintiff doesn't sink it.

* At least one of the plaintiffs has beyond-normal "good cause".

* It's in NY where there's no open carry, so the court has a total blank slate on which to design a carry system that meets constitutional minimums.
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Old December 5, 2012, 11:09 AM   #233
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As we await for the decisions from the 7th Circuit and the 4th Circuit, Kachalsky is the proper vehicle to get a grant of cert.

Jim is correct that this is a good, proper and clean case. As are Woollard and Moore/Shepard.

It was always a race to see which one would get to 1 First Street, um, first.
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Old December 8, 2012, 08:06 AM   #234
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In response to Gray's prediction that SCOTUS takes Kachalsky, hears orals in April and rules in June 2013:

(IANAL), but just from skimming other petitions' timelines, I find it will be VERY difficult for this. Normally, the loser has a 90 day window after the CCA's opinion is released(the opinion is only 2 weeks ago). If we take the 90 day window all the way, we're looking at late February. Then add in 30 days or so for a response from the state(best case scenario-state will undoubtedly ask for more time like they always do), plus another 2 weeks or so for plaintiffs response......now you're INTO April, which is the last month for orals. I don't think it's possible to get cert in early April and get oral arguments only a week or two later, calendar will most likely be full until Fall term.

We'll have to file for cert NOW. If a split happens along the way, then more briefs can be submitted along the way, but we just can't wait another 2-3 months for the split. There's also the risk that the split gets yanked from under us because other members of the circuit want to hold things up with an en banc hearing. This also assumes cert is granted after the first conference it's distributed to.

If we go until next term, it could be decided early just depending on how the case falls in terms of "importance". If it's the landmark case, it's going to be decided in June 2014, but if there are more Obamacare suits,exc., then those will be the last decided. Again IANAL
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Old December 11, 2012, 12:18 AM   #235
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I think that we are into next term already before anything will be heard; nothing (except death penalty appeals) happens fast in SCOTUS. My guess is that a slew of these cases will all come down at the same time (there a four that were argued this week in the Ninth Circuit),plus Woolard, all of which are carry outside the home, discretionary issue states that will allow the Court to expand,restrict, or toherwise further rule on the ramifications of Heller. The Court will do a "grant and hold" with most, and designating one of the cases as the lead case for all briefing and argument. Briefing not to be completed until at least the end of 2013, with argument in 2014. No telling how long before an opinion will issue--it theoretically could be several years--so a decision no earlier than two years from now.
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Old December 11, 2012, 08:36 AM   #236
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Absolute latest for an opinion will be June/July 2014-I can't see any way SCOTUS doesn't take a case by then. After all, except for the 3rd Circuit case in NJ(and Palmer in DC which apparently will be a relic), all other cases have gotten oral arguments in the Circuit court.
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Old March 8, 2013, 09:04 AM   #237
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Last week, Alan Gura filed a 28J letter, referencing US v. Black.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf CA4-Woollard 28j.Blackdecisioin.pdf (125.8 KB, 42 views)
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Old March 8, 2013, 10:08 AM   #238
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Strange that the decision is taking so long after the expedited status. The appeal was heard rather quickly. Hurry up and wait!

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Old March 8, 2013, 03:07 PM   #239
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They are waiting to see if cert is granted in Kachalsky
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Old March 8, 2013, 03:38 PM   #240
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march 13th

Jan 31 2013 Order extending time to file response to petition to and including March 13, 2013, for all respondents.

This from the SCOTUS Dockett. Next week.
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Old March 8, 2013, 04:24 PM   #241
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After the Opp is filed, they will then schedule it for Friday conference. During that time, Gura will have a chance to file a Reply in support of the Petition. I look for a Friday conference in April
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Old March 8, 2013, 09:01 PM   #242
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Within 7 days of the opposition filing, I expect the Brady Campaign and the LCAV (or whatever they are calling themselves, now) to file the usual amicus briefs.
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Old March 9, 2013, 10:32 PM   #243
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LCAV stopped pretending that they're against violence, their new name more accurately refects their work, which ignores violent acts as long as they are not committed with a gun.
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Old March 9, 2013, 11:02 PM   #244
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They're the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence these days. They recently sent a memo to the Senate Judiciary Committee advising how all of the proposed gun-control legislation currently on the table supposedly comports with the Heller and McDonald decisions.

They present themselves very well and merit watching.
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Old March 10, 2013, 12:10 AM   #245
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Um, folks? I'm well aware of whom these elitist San Francisco attorneys are and what they are for. I'm also aware of the name change... To reinvent themselves. Just as Handgun Control Incorporated (HCI), co-opted Sarah Brady and reinvented themselves as the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence.

In other words, I was being snarky.
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Old March 10, 2013, 08:34 AM   #246
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I know, but I couldn't help getting my digs in at them...
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Old March 11, 2013, 06:53 PM   #247
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
They're the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence these days. They recently sent a memo to the Senate Judiciary Committee advising how all of the proposed gun-control legislation currently on the table supposedly comports with the Heller and McDonald decisions.
That's a disturbing trend that I'm seeing across the anti- web presence. Torturted interpetations of Heller that are contrived to make the various proposed assualt weapon bans kosher.

Scary stuff, to me atleast.
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Old March 11, 2013, 06:54 PM   #248
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Scary perhaps, but not unexpected.
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Old March 11, 2013, 07:17 PM   #249
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Why wouldn't they torture it?


They can get 4-5 years before the laws hit the SCOTUS. By then they can shore up the defenses, have the public extol the laws virtues and basically wait. Even if they lose there is always the "tax" avenue.
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Old March 21, 2013, 02:41 PM   #250
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4th finds for state in Woollard

Opinion attached

This why presidential elections matter so much
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File Type: pdf Woollard v. Gallagher.pdf (84.1 KB, 33 views)
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