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Old June 22, 2009, 05:48 PM   #26
Shadi Khalil
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Quote:
Well, I'm currently listening to Daniel Silva's Israeli Secret agent books on CD when I drive, so I am probably a spy master of international scope
Innocently masquerading as a gun board moderator. Are an art student too?



Here is something I found that sheds a bit (tiny bit) of light on the discussion..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._gun_ownership

Also, some side info...

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...735527,00.html

My bet is the government will really crack down once the numbers are small enough and people stop caring. Hossein Mousavi will be either put on indefinite house arrest or detained by the state and charged with some sort of treasonous/anti revolutionary activity. I doubt they will let him flee the country (I heard on al-arabyia he is looking for an out) and create a sort of government in exile.
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Old June 23, 2009, 01:38 PM   #27
Glenn E. Meyer
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Gabriel has more talent than I do. We are just going to have to see how this plays out. Listening to the radio today an Iranian commentator said it took 1 year or so for the Shah to be ousted by demonstrations in the street.

The issue will be whether enough of the people support a change such that it weakens the security forces. Playing rural recruits against urban demonstrators has worked across the world. Even in the USA.
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Old June 23, 2009, 03:54 PM   #28
carguychris
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The issue will be whether enough of the people support a change such that it weakens the security forces. Playing rural recruits against urban demonstrators has worked across the world. Even in the USA.
I think Mohsavi's next important test will be whether he can sway any significant factions within the police, military, or Basij militia to his side.

News reports are saying that the Basij consists largely of ultra-right-wing Ahmadinijad supporters, and that large gangs of them are riding around Tehran on motorcycles and breaking up protests. If history is any guide, it is only a matter of time before some of these guys get way out of line. If someone films them doing something outrageously abusive, it may prompt fragmentation of the police or military, which can only help the opposition.

I think that this raises a great question pertaining to the 2A in the USA. IMHO a good reason for the 2A is not necessarily to allow the militia to stand up to a professional army, but to prevent the over-concentration of arms and power in the hands of one particular militia.

Again, if history is any guide, a single government-sponsored militia often winds up being used to violently quash dissent amongst the populace. OTOH if the populace can raise their own militia, this could dissuade a power-hungry government from being tempted to establish a powerful paramilitary force in the first place. Discuss.
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Old June 23, 2009, 06:22 PM   #29
nemo2econ
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Iranian gun laws bleg

Attorney and Second Amendment scholar David Kopel is asking for any information on Iranian gun laws. See below.

Quote:
Iranian gun laws bleg:

The Small Arms Survey suggests that Iran's per capita gun ownership rate is 0.053 (that is, about one gun for every twenty people). This is fairly low by global standards. (See Tables 6 and 7 of my recent article in the Texas Review of Law & Politics.) Could commenters please supply information about the gun laws of Iran, and how they are enforced? What kind of people in Iran are allowed to own guns? What kind of guns? Please don't get into a discussion of whether the Iranian protesters would be better/worse off if they had guns. Just supply accurate information, with citations if possible. Comments based on personal experience from people who have lived in Iran, or visited Iran, are welcome.
Here is the link: http://volokh.com/posts/1245743719.shtml

As stated, he is only looking for accurate information, preferably with citations. So please don't go over to his blog to debate "whether the Iranian protesters would be better/worse off if they had [certain] gun [laws].
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Old June 24, 2009, 11:24 AM   #30
godofredus
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Compare Iran and Mexico???

The connection liberals make between gun laws revolution and incidentally capital punishment are faulty but the connection made by conservatives in this blog seem to be the same.
My favorite case is Mexico, where there is no capital punishment; handguns cannot be owned (total handgun ban); long guns (hunting rifles) are very strictly controlled, and of course has one of the highest firearm murder rates in the world.
Liberals say no capital punishment no handguns no murders. Conservatives say no capital punishment no handguns only criminals will own guns. Which apparently is true in Mexico EXCEPT it looks like everybody owns a gun.
Yet when demonstrators demonstrate in Mexico they seem to be unarmed. Go figure.
If the Mossad says there are too many variables here, I agree with them
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Old June 28, 2009, 11:59 AM   #31
Glenn E. Meyer
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The NY Times today had a fairly decent portrayal of the Fizzle and the reasons why a good deal of Iran supported the Mullahs. However, one columnist - Roger Cohen who was all a twitter at first about the end of the Mullahs is now stating that the women of Iran showing their hair is a sign of the end. Many of the comments indicated that he was naive but some were all for the cultural empowering that will overthrow them. Somebody () pointed out that the Times' view of the 2nd Amend. vs. Friedman's analysis vs Hairdo power might need some rethinking.

Defending or obtaining liberty through hairdo and cultural dance festivals is a potent strategy - don't you think? Another article pointed out that mostly peaceful regime changed occured when the security forces turned on the dictators for their own self-interest. But the Time's editorial board and some columnists live in a dream world.
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Old June 28, 2009, 01:34 PM   #32
v65magnafan
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Maybe They Liked The Mullahs at One Point..

Quote:
The NY Times today had a fairly decent portrayal of the Fizzle and the reasons why a good deal of Iran supported the Mullahs.
I scanned the NYT and couldn't find the reference to support of the Mullahs. I also haven't read every post in this thread, so I might be repetitive. So, I apologize in advance.

I have a fair number of friends who immigrated from Iran, and I'm fairly close to two ex-Tehran families.

That said, I can tell you that a fair number of Iranians supported the Mullahs as an alternative to Shah. They found out, in a few years, that they were worse off.

However, the Iranians are accustomed to living "in the closet" so to speak. The Iranians, or Persians, had to succumb to Arab Islam under threat of the sword. To survive, most Iranians put on an Islamic public face. This is essential for education, career advancement, and simple survival.

The Iranian Mullahs prescribe an Islam that is appropriate to Arab countries. I'll stay away from an explanation of that, lest I offend a TFL member or two. Be assured, though, that Persians have much more respect for Israel and the US than they do for Saudi Arabia, and I'll leave it at that.

The Mullahs for years have tried to force their brand of Islam onto a country the nerve center of which, Tehran, is educated, sophisticated, progressive, and Zoroastrian in culture and maybe faith. The Mullahs, for example, have tried to stamp out Zoroastrian cultural celebrations. They have had mixed success. And, it's as easy to get a bottle of good single malt in Tehran as it is in Los Angeles, I am told.

The only people who want the Mullahs to keep power in Iran are the Arab-ethnics in the outlying provinces and the uneducated folks. This generalization is probably fairly accurate.

Now, to the topic at hand. Gun control in Iran.

Oldcspsarge is correct. Private ownership of firearms is prohibited. One of my Iranian friends tells me that Shah confiscated all civilian firearms. After the revolution, the armories in Iran were opened and civilians armed themselves.

The Mullahs later demanded the return of all firearms, and executed people to make their point. After the firearms were returned, the Mullahs began their systematic execution of tens of thousands of civilians, many of whom were supporters of the Mullahs before the revolution--Communists, etc.

(So, if you know any lefties in North America who support the Islamic view--anti-Israel and all that, you might want to tell them that when Islam takes over, they and their families will be the first in line for torture and death.)

Anyway, another Iranian friend of mine tells me that mosques all over the country have buried arms caches waiting for the right moment. Obviously, the people who invented the game of chess don't think that the right moment is now.

One little-known fact is that the Iranians who consider themselves Muslim to not consider their own Ayatollah to be the supreme voice of Shia Islam. Rather, they respect Sistani--over the border in Iraq. He's the spiritual leader who encouraged Iraq's nascent democracy by saying that Shia Islam and a democratic political system can co-exist.

My best guess for the near future? The street demos have quieted down because they cannot compete with Michael Jackson. Behind the scenes, all sorts of interesting stuff is being set up. Alliances are being formed. Weapons are being acquired--the border between Iraq and it's zillions of AK's is probably porous right now.

Cash is flowing out of Iran as fast as the Mullahs and their corrupt buddies can shovel. Can anyone in the banking industry corroborate this? And where is it going?

To end on a note re The New York Times. I think that if any editorialist at the NYT recommended an armed civilian population, his head would roll. But we all know that.
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Old June 28, 2009, 01:59 PM   #33
Glenn E. Meyer
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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/28/we...html?ref=world

I think this was the article trying to explain the nuances about opposition to the regime.

About support from the provinces - the militia guys were supposedly young and devout folks from the boonies who would be willing to assail protestors.

But what do I know - I don't want to commit the sin of the babbling experts on our media who don't really understand the situation, so thanks v65... for insight.

About the Times, yep - they are hard core against guns editorially. They are still ranting Guns in Church. Blah.

But, I was taken by that little bit by Friedman - tweet tweet vs bang, bang - should be taken up by us.
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Old June 28, 2009, 02:22 PM   #34
v65magnafan
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You're right about the militia guys--the Basij.

The Iranians in the street heard these guys speaking Arabic. When that rumor hit the blogs, it was assumed that they were from Hezbollah or Hamas. This could be. I don't know of anyone who checked flight manifests from Lebanon or Syria to verify this.

The Arab-speaking Basij could easily be impoverished unemployed from the Arabic speaking Iranian provinces. This is not to say that Hez and Ham thugs weren't there as well.

One "eyewitness" in Tehran stated that the Iranian Basij were housed in dorms but the Hezbollah thugs were housed in hotel rooms. We may never know the truth.

I believe that this had all better be worked out by the fall, or Israel will put an end to the Iranian nuclear weapons program, one way or another.

You would be amazed at how many secret meetings are going on among Saudis, Egyptians, and Israelis. The Saudis have decided that the Iranians are a bigger enemy than the Israelis.
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