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Old May 27, 2009, 07:29 AM   #1
Double Naught Spy
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Crime Rate & Concealed Carry

For those who believe that concealed carry CAUSES a reduction in crime, here is some sobering information. Texas instituted its CHL program in 1996 and crime went down. In fact, crime had been dropping for several years preceding 1996 and so the fact that crime went down can't be attributed to the CHL program.

Now in 2009, we see that crime isn't down so much. In fact, the top three cities with the highest crime rates in the US with populations of more than a million are San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston. Dallas is now thrilled to no longer hold the top spot for crime which it held for at least the last 10 years.

Note that these three cities alone constitute roughly 24% of the population of Texas.

It is pretty hard to see how CHLs are lowering the crime rate when places with the largest population densities in the state have the worst crime rates in the nation for cities over a million people.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont...e.41fe673.html

Dallas' crime rate no longer the highest among large U.S. cities
06:38 AM CDT on Wednesday, May 27, 2009


By TANYA EISERER / The Dallas Morning News
teiserer@dallasnews.com
Dallas has shed its title as the U.S. city of more than 1 million with the highest crime rate.

The city is poised to announce that the No. 1 rank, which Dallas held for at least 10 years, now goes to San Antonio.
Based on an analysis of population growth and crime numbers released last week by the Texas Department of Public Safety, Dallas will drop to the No. 2 spot, and Houston will rank third.

"We're clearly headed in the right direction," said Mayor Tom Leppert. "I believe there is still a lot of work left to be done. We want to see it lower than it is today."

According to statistics individual cities reported to the state, Dallas now has a rate of 68 crimes per 1,000 residents; San Antonio has 79 crimes per 1,000 residents and Houston has 59 crimes per 1,000 residents.

The Dallas City Council had set a goal for the Police Department to get the city out of the top spot by 2008. The city appears to have met that goal.

"That's good news," said Police Chief David Kunkle, who took the post almost five years ago. "Our officers have worked very hard. It is a credit to a lot of different people whenever crime is going down in a community."

Last year, every category of crime – ranging from murder to theft – fell in Dallas. The city recorded more than 10,000 fewer offenses.

And crime continues to fall. It is down 17.5 percent through April.

Crime report concerns
Criminal experts have always said that using the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports to make comparisons among cities is misleading. The FBI strongly discourages the use of its national crime data for ranking purposes, in part because the way data is gathered can vary greatly from city to city, depending on the interpretation of the reporting guidelines.

"They are called uniform crime reporting, but they're not all uniform in terms of how police departments interpret the rules and record the data," said James Alan Fox, a criminal justice professor at Northeastern University in Boston.

Simply crunching all the different crime categories to come up with an overall crime number isn't a good indicator of how dangerous a city is, he said. By tabulating it that way, a murder counts the same as a theft in the overall tally. It also means that a city could have a murder problem, but still look good overall if it had low recorded property crime.

Fox also said it is problematic to come up with a crime rate based on a city's resident population because some cities have large numbers of people who commute to work or visit.

"The resident population may not be a good indicator as to how many people are at risk," he said.

Dallas police readily acknowledge that changes to the department's reporting practices contributed greatly to the decrease in the city's reported crime numbers.

Changing the system
Kunkle began changing the department's offense reporting system about three years ago. He believed the system was broken, with too many incidents that were not actual crimes being recorded as such. He also found that Dallas wasn't following commonly used reporting practices, making the city look worse in comparison to its peers.

Early in 2007, the department changed how it recorded aggravated assaults after finding that officers were incorrectly recording offenses. Later that year, the department started requiring individuals who report their vehicles stolen to sign affidavits, a change that police officials say has dramatically reduced the incidents of people falsely reporting their vehicles as stolen.

That same year, police officials found that they hadn't been following the FBI's guidelines on reporting many property crimes such as theft or car burglaries. In some cases, the rules allow multiple crimes to be reported as a single criminal act.

Without one recent procedural change, for example, Dallas' crime figures would have dropped about 7 percent last year, rather than the 10 percent that was recorded. That procedural change also continues to affect the city's crime numbers.

Downward trend
But crime is trending downward sharply, even without the reporting changes.

Last week, The Dallas Morning News reported that a 17.5 percent drop in overall crime would have actually been about 12.5 percent without the change.

The dubious distinction of being No. 1 in crime among major cities, first reported about six years ago, played a part in the firing of Police Chief Terrell Bolton and caused consternation among city officials who feared the ranking would scare away businesses and hamper economic development. It also helped prompt the city to pour resources into the manpower-strapped department.

Leppert and other city officials believe that getting more boots on the ground has played a crucial role in helping drive down the city's crime numbers. The city now has about 3,500 police officers, about 600 more than in 2004. Dallas now has about 2.7 officers per thousand residents, placing it ever closer to reaching the longtime goal of three officers per thousand.

Even facing a tough fiscal crunch, city officials plan to add 200 more police officer positions to the force in the next budget year.

"People will come up to you and say, 'I saw a police officer patrolling my neighborhood. I never used to see that,"' Leppert said. "Clearly, we've had some terrific results in terms of the reduction in crime. But I want to make sure that we continue this."

Many criminal justice experts believe that because so many other crime categories can be subject to reporting vagaries, murder is the best indicator of a city's performance.

On that front, Dallas continues to do very well. The city ended last year with 170 murders, a 15 percent decline from the prior year's tally. The city is on track to record about 150 murders this year, which would be the lowest number in at least 40 years.

In San Antonio, a police spokesman said he could not comment on his city's rise in the rankings. But he attributed a spike in property-related crime, such as thefts, to the tremendous population growth the city continues to experience. San Antonio's overall crime jumped about 17 percent last year, fueled in large part by an increase of 10,000 theft offenses.

"We really haven't felt the crunch of the economy," Officer Joe Rios said. "We're still building homes and growing at a fast rate. We're seeing construction sites being burglarized. Metal theft also increased our numbers through the first part of the year."

The FBI is expected to release comprehensive crime statistics for American cities next week.
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Old May 27, 2009, 08:18 AM   #2
christcorp
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I don't see the correlation between their crime and CCW. San Antonio specifically mentions an increase in housing being built and an increase in theft that is probably associated with that. You need to look at the stats for personal crimes such as muggings, rape, assault, and other crimes where a CCW is meaningful. Any other stat is irrelevant.
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Old May 27, 2009, 08:57 AM   #3
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If they are talking about non violent crime like credit card fraud or shoplifting I dont see what CCW would have to do with the statistic. If they are talking about gangbangers getting in gunfights with other gangbangers on gang property, it still wouldnt have any affect from CCW citizens. Are there less home invasions? Less muggings?
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Old May 27, 2009, 11:01 AM   #4
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Two things:

1) Texas was hit hard by a crime wave caused by Katrina refugees. They're still dealing with that to some degree.

2) CCW doesn't affect all crime types...not even all violent crime types.

OK, MOST murders in the US are "crook versus crook". CCW has little effect, except in rare cases where good folk are caught in the crossfire.

The second largest block of murders are "in home" of various sorts, where CCW has only a limited effect. Having a CCW permit DOES increase the odds for some folk that you'll have a gun handy when your crazy brother finally loses it and goes completely bonkers with a chainsaw, fr'instance . But the effect isn't that serious.

Criminal attacks on honest folks are the third largest block of murders/assaults/rapes/etc. That's where CCW has the most effect.
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Old May 27, 2009, 12:45 PM   #5
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You also have to look at the mindset (how, I don't know) of the offender of a crime against a law abiding citizen.

Criminals are like wolves, they prey on the weakest/dumbest of the herd, and if they don't know who the weakest one is i.e. a non CCW they will move on to the dumbest one.
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Old May 27, 2009, 12:52 PM   #6
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I am "bookmarking" this thread. I am interested in seeing where this one goes...
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Old May 27, 2009, 01:19 PM   #7
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Quote:
I am "bookmarking" this thread. I am interested in seeing where this one goes...
Same here.

Now for my comment.

I live in Austin and am from San Antonio.
So I would say I know a little about Texas

After Katrina a lot of idiots from NO moved to Houston ( there crime rate sky rocketed even higher then it was) San Antonio, Austin, and the Dallas area.

After Ike hit Houston a lot the idiots from NO moved from Houston to Austin, Dallas, San Antonio and a few other places.

Here in Austin we saw a huge spike in crime right before Ike hit due to evacuees (were still waiting for some to go home) I am sure San Antonio and Dallas had the same problems we did after Ike and Katrina


Legal Disclaimer: I am not stating all people from LA or New Orleans are idiots I am speaking specifically of the criminal element. There are no facts that I can prove, The statements are more from what I observed here in Texas after the storms hit. I am sure there are plenty of nice honest people in the Houston Austin San Antonio and Dallas areas that were displaced by an angry mother earth
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Old May 27, 2009, 04:39 PM   #8
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Well gee guys, hurricane Katrina was in 2005. That hardly accounts for the high crime rates before 2005 unless like the proponents of Texas CHL you are going to discount everything before a given date. Dallas was still #1 before Katrina for several years.

Even with Katrina, what you are saying is that the folks from Katrina weren't terribly scared of Texans and their concealed carry guns. For crying out loud, they came from places like Louisiana and Mississippi where plenty of folks have guns as well.
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Last edited by Double Naught Spy; May 27, 2009 at 05:18 PM.
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Old May 27, 2009, 05:00 PM   #9
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Quote:
For those who believe that concealed carry CAUSES a reduction in crime, here is some sobering information.
You know, I don't really care what effect it has on "crime." Statistics can be made to say pretty much anything. Just look how "wonderful" the country is doing based on Obama's number crunching.

Having a shall issue CCW does give me the option to defend myself and that is all that matters.
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Old May 27, 2009, 05:30 PM   #10
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I doubt if any people who opt for CCW give a hoot about national or state statistics. They just want to make sure they are not one of the victims that make up the statistics.

I symapthize with the folks who live in areas that have crime. I have to remind myself each time I read this forum to keep quiet about the current mania about the CCW stuff. I can't ever remember even having a murder or a robbery in my county, so it's easy for me to scoff at what I might see as paranoia. But when I travel to Denver, Houston, or elsewhere on business, I could easily see myself being worried about my safety if I had to live there.
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Old May 27, 2009, 06:14 PM   #11
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Are there any statistics on how many crimes were prevented by chl's in Dallas/Ft Worth?
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Old May 27, 2009, 06:23 PM   #12
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Quote:
For those who believe that concealed carry CAUSES a reduction in crime, here is some sobering information.
The funny thing is I've never really cared about how much CCW causes a reduction in crime overall, just how it causes a reduction in crimes committed against ME.
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Old May 27, 2009, 06:55 PM   #13
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The funny thing is I've never really cared about how much CCW causes a reduction in crime overall, just how it causes a reduction in crimes committed against ME.
Good point. And same here.
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Old May 27, 2009, 07:11 PM   #14
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The funny thing is I've never really cared about how much CCW causes a reduction in crime overall, just how it causes a reduction in crimes committed against ME.
Pithy and cogent. +1
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Old May 27, 2009, 07:16 PM   #15
Double Naught Spy
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You know, I don't really care what effect it has on "crime." Statistics can be made to say pretty much anything.
Yeah, and my point is that gun folks really really want to believe that concealed carry has this dramatic affect on crime to the point of broadcasting it as fact when it isn't.

http://www.thefiringline.com/forums/...s+chl+10+years

Quote:
They just want to make sure they are not one of the victims that make up the statistics.
Quote:
The funny thing is I've never really cared about how much CCW causes a reduction in crime overall, just how it causes a reduction in crimes committed against ME.
And that is all that matters and the only place in which the statistics about concealed carry can be shown to have an effect that is significant - at the individual level.
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Old May 27, 2009, 07:36 PM   #16
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Double Naught, you seem to be quite the number cruncher. Here is a good one for ya...

Why dont you add up all of the instances where a CHL has used deadly force in a justified way, then compare it to all of the times a CHL has used deadly force in an unjustified way.

After you have secured this data, please report back and tell me if you still think CHL has not lowered the crime rate in instances where a CHL served any relavance to the said crime.

Furthermore, the punks and thugs are performing "crook on crook" crimes. Dope dealers shoot crackheads for being late on their meth bill. This has nothing to do with CHL. A CHL cannot prevent that crime.

Here is some more number crunching for you. Go to your local projects and take a survey (be sure to take your piece though!). Ask a few folks around there what a CHL is. I would be willing to bet that a good margin of the folks have no idea what that even means.

Bottom line. CHL's lower crime when the said crime is pertinent to them. We CHL's cannot be responsible for gangsta's killing each other in East Dallas.

Ok, one more scenario and I will quit. I betcha that Oak Cliff in East Dallas has one of the highest crime rates in the city. I would also venture to guess that they have an extremely low number of CHL's. I would LOVE to see some data on that.
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Old May 27, 2009, 08:02 PM   #17
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Texas got hit pretty hard with an influx of new criminals after Katrina and has always been hit hard with illegal immigrants and drug dealers. I don't think you can look at crime or changes in crime rates in Texas in the same as you would anywhere else.
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Old May 27, 2009, 09:45 PM   #18
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If you want to dismiss the Katrina issue since it happened in 2005, then I present Jon R. Lott, Jr. He has compiled evidence from every county, not state, county, on the crime rates they occured. His long term study involved the before and after effect on Shall Issue. His conclusion, although dated, supports the fact that counties changing from May/No issue to Shall issue drops crime rate in major categories. Murder, rape, assault, etc. all have dropped in the over 3,000 counties in the U.S.

I take the Dallas Morning News with a tiny grain of salt. They're getting about as liberal as the Houston Chronicle and Atlanta Constitution.

Even if they think the rates aren't contributing to the drop in crime, the FACT remains that my chances of not being a victim of a crime is greater if I'm allowed to arm myself. I'm willing to bet this is what Creature means.
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Old May 27, 2009, 10:56 PM   #19
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John Lott (Mary Rosh to his friends), Has been debunked so many times and by so many people it's always a bit surprising when someone mentions him as an authority on anything except self promotion.

There are far better people to cite, such as Kleck, but even so there is no clear connection between an increase in the number of concealed carry permits issued and the over all crime rate.

Facts don't have a political bias.
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Old May 27, 2009, 11:23 PM   #20
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I wasn't aware of the issue with Dr Lott, I did some quick google-fu and judging from the websites that were making a commotion about it and his point by point refutation of Michelle Malkin's (who I adore) piece on him I find it not a big deal.

The fact of the matter is that CCW may or may not lower "crime" on a macro level. It does at a micro level. The 2nd doesn't mention self defense explicitly, it is just a nice added benefit. You can use the same gun to protect yourself from criminals that you might need to defend yourself from a out of control government.
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Old May 27, 2009, 11:28 PM   #21
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John R. Lott, Jr.: Formerly(IIRC) of University of Chicago, School of Law? Where can you site this?

He and David B. Mustard, also at the UofC in Dept of Economics assembled an abstract titled "Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns back in July, 1996. It was pretty detailed on their analysis. When I lived in Michigan, Mr. Lott came up to Lansing to present their abstract when hearings were in session to introduce the Shall Issue bill.

Also, in his abstract, he challenged Kleck's and Patterson's papers they:

"involve little more than either time-series or cross-sectional evidence comparing mean crime rates, and none controls for variables that normally concern economists (e.g., the probability of arrest and conviction and the length of prison sentences or even variables like personal income). These papers fail to recognize that, since it is frequesntly only the largest population counties that are very restrictive when local authorities have been given discretion in granting concealed handgun permits, "shall issue" concealed handgun permit laws, which require permit requests be granted unless the individual has a criminal record or a history of significant mental illness (Cramer and Kopel, 1995, pp. 680-707), will not alter the number of permits being issued in all counties."

This is a quoted excerpt from his abstract and it's only icing on the cake.
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Old May 27, 2009, 11:52 PM   #22
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hkmp5sd...I'm with you brother. +1
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Old May 28, 2009, 12:46 AM   #23
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Wagonman: If it were just a matter of Lott dressing in virtual drag then it'd just be embarrassing. But falsifying results is a big deal.

http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/lott.php

Of course you can dismiss all his critics if it makes your life easier.



Michelle Malkin? Geez, now we're talking real loon squad members.
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Old May 28, 2009, 01:25 AM   #24
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to anyone who cares if CCW reduces crime:

CCW isn't about reducing crime. Its about defending myself. so, if you are in the mindset that in fact it does nothing for crime, then all more the reason I should carry my firearm.
I bet you would want one if you went into one of those cities. Would you rather not carry one because "it doesn't reduce crime"??? how horribly backwards that logic is. You go on ahead, leave your gun at home because it does nothing to stop crime. Ill be happy with mine everywhere I go. Cause bad guys don't tell me when they want to act in a criminal way. I can't tell the future that far.
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Old May 28, 2009, 01:49 AM   #25
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Quote:
There are far better people to cite, such as Kleck, but even so there is no clear connection between an increase in the number of concealed carry permits issued and the over all crime rate.
Yay, give the man an A

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