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Old January 31, 2009, 12:47 PM   #26
Creature
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I do not believe that the recession will cause the crime rate to increase.
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good people continue to be good people despite adversity.
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With a small number of tragic exceptions, good people continue to be good people despite adversity. My family has dealt with unemployment, the depletion of savings, and the threat of losing a home. However, at no point have I considered turning to crime to make ends meet.
Good for you...

Many otherwise "good" folks have turned to crime when faced with financial or economic ruin.

http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=25&sid=1558814
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Old January 31, 2009, 01:28 PM   #27
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Two can play at that game, sir.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...oryId=97234406

-T
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Old January 31, 2009, 01:35 PM   #28
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ooookay...did you actually read the whole article you cited? Or was it the first article that popped up after you searched the web?
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Old January 31, 2009, 01:46 PM   #29
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I had read the article in its entirety well before this thread started. Here's another one for you, from my hometown. Are you going to make any valid arguments, or continue to try and taunt me?

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont....3f66bb1c.html

I never denied that some people will resort to crime when faced with economic hardship. On the other hand, I highly doubt that the 1300 people recently laid off from Nortel are set to descend upon my house in the form of an angry mob. Let's get real.

-T

Last edited by thawntex; January 31, 2009 at 01:49 PM. Reason: clarity
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Old January 31, 2009, 01:47 PM   #30
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I started carrying two speedloaders for my revolver instead of one. Other than that, I haven't changed much.
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Old January 31, 2009, 03:58 PM   #31
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Quote:
good people continue to be good people despite adversity.
Most yeah, but some only until they get hungry.
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Old January 31, 2009, 04:10 PM   #32
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I decided to do a little more digging after the friendly exchange between Creature and me.

A simple Google search reveals that college enrollment is up in several states. Call me an optimist, but I believe that this helps to affirm my original premise. A great many people deal with hardship in a positive way. I have two small children and only enough savings left to pay the bills for one more month. My wife and I are both struggling to find employment. We would never consider harming another human being to make ends meet. My wife currently attends night school to gain a medical billing and coding certificate. Good for us? You bet.

From now on I will leave this debate to the economists and criminologists. My feelings on the matter stand. If you are already sufficiently armed and ready to defend yourself and your home, there is no need to ramp up your efforts. Some of the increased crimes consist of scams and frauds anyway, a matter that no amount of stockpiled ammo will solve. Plus, it proves my original point that career criminals seek opportunity. Unfortunately the opportunities have increased. If you weren't an easy mark to begin, however, you have no reason to increase you level of preparedness.

-T

Last edited by thawntex; January 31, 2009 at 04:18 PM. Reason: just 'cause
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Old January 31, 2009, 04:13 PM   #33
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I do not believe that the recession will cause the crime rate to increase.
Quote:
Are you going to make any valid arguments, or continue to try and taunt me?
According to this report, the FBI doesnt agree with your assessment: http://www.investors.com/editorial/e...16653238215116

To put it into perspective, answer these questions: has your state and local government met their financial goals this year? Does your state and local government expect to reach their goals next year as the economy continues to slide?

"Why?" one might ask. Well, more and more we see reports of economic short falls in which state and local communities have to cut back on police and other budgets. Will that not have an impact on crime?

How about the mortgage debacle? Will that have an effect on how crime will rise or fall as the poor become homeless?

Pushed hard enough in hard times, the bottom rung will do what it perceives it has to do to survive. It might be apparent on your street or even your neighborhood, but based on FBI reports going back to 1972 and the business cycle chart compiled by the National Bureau of Economic Research, it looks as if violent crime trends upward at the beginning of a contraction and generally stays up through the initial phases of a recovery. The same pattern emerges when you overlay historical statistics for robbery alone from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Holdups increased noticeably in 1973, 1980, 1981, 1990, and 2001, years in which recessions began.
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Old January 31, 2009, 04:17 PM   #34
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A simple Google search reveals that college enrollment is up in several states.
So what? Explain to me how college enrollment numbers has anything to do with crime statistics?

Is it not a fact that more and more jobs require a college degree now more than they have in the past? And has the college-aged population continued to grow since the tracking started?
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Old January 31, 2009, 04:24 PM   #35
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Quote:
A simple Google search reveals that college enrollment is up in several states.

So what? Explain to me how college enrollment numbers has anything to do with crime statistics?

Is it not a fact that more and more jobs require a college degree now more than they have in the past? And has the college-aged population continued to grow since the tracking started?
I'm not going to argue with you any further. I will recommend that if you quote me in the future, please do not chop my paragraphs into little pieces. I have elucidated my points thoroughly, and I refuse to gratify you by explaining one sentence taken out of context.

-T

Last edited by thawntex; January 31, 2009 at 04:53 PM. Reason: reply
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Old January 31, 2009, 05:05 PM   #36
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I live in Government housing, on a military base. ... I have noticed that alot more people are also carying firearms while outside
Corpsman, unless the Military has significantly changed its policies from when I served for 20 plus years, you may have had break-ins on the post, but I doubt there are any individuals openly packing heat of any sort on post/base. I don't believe you meant it the way it came across.

I live in a rural area in the west. And I see more movement by some to buy ARs and others high capacity clip weapons. But I do not see any more individuals carrying weapons. And after talking with the sheriff's office, the CWs haven't increased that much either. Seems those who had in the past, still do in the future. But there are a lot of newbees clamoring to get an AR. And that scares the bajeebies out of me.

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Creature and thawntex
I am enjoying the back and forth. But the web site articles are getting harder to follow. A healthy debate is worth more than a good movie. So in the words of the UCF, "Let's get it on!"

But I am not so sure you are as far apart as you may think.
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Old January 31, 2009, 06:38 PM   #37
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I'm not going to argue with you any further. I will recommend that if you quote me in the future, please do not chop my paragraphs into little pieces. I have elucidated my points thoroughly, and I refuse to gratify you by explaining one sentence taken out of context.
It looks more to me like you are avoiding the questions with some form of pompous indignation. Answer the questions and prove to us that you have it right.
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Old January 31, 2009, 07:40 PM   #38
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We live in a "have-not's" neighborhood.

The local PD has an on-line map with the crimes shown by type, and flagged by date. Linked to the flagged event is a breif description. You all might want to check for this kind of resource, it would help you better prepare for what most happens in your area. It has sure helped us. We found on this site that the area we were renting in, had a lot of problems, and where we bought did not. This is the exact opposite of what we may have thought. We personally had 2 break-ins in the "better" area, and there are almost none at all in the "slum". I believe that "have-nots" tend to not rob from other "have-nots".

I have begun preperations for the coming of zombies. I know we are not supposed to talk on zombies; but have you been listening to the anti-gun party on the hill in the last few days?:barf: believe me, the zombies are comming! They're after your guns, not your brains, but if you have any brains, they'll be after those when they're done with the guns.
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Old January 31, 2009, 09:36 PM   #39
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Changes made...Added more firearms and more ammunition. Still adding more of each when I can.

Food stockpile has been going on for months and is at about 2 months, maybe more. Bottled water on hand, probably should add more.

My girlfriend wants us to be more self sufficient. We are talking about adding an outdoor woodboiler for heat. I have 5 or 6 cords of wood on hand and access to much more I can cut. She wants to increase the garden size and add chickens and a cow or 2. Also she wants to stock our pond so we have our own fisheree.

Everything we are doing will benefit us whethe or not the SHTF or not so to me it all makes perfect sense.
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Old January 31, 2009, 10:49 PM   #40
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People should get prepared if they aren't.


The chances of criminal activity may or may not be more likely in our communities as a result of the world economic crisis.

In any event, why would the preparation be any different? I can name 15 gun forums that have, for some time now, been discussing the subject of defending ourselves from the criminal activity we have already.
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Old January 31, 2009, 11:04 PM   #41
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I have elucidated my points thoroughly
Still waiting for you to do so. Perhaps you should have picked a better word...because you have yet to 'elucidate' your statements with verifiable facts which prove your point in this analysis.
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Old February 1, 2009, 10:10 AM   #42
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Who cares

Creature and Thawntex
Although I have enjoyed keeping up with your mutual "hissy fits", they do not, in any way answer the simple question I asked. So, for your edification, I will repeat: What, if any changes have you made?
If you have not made any, simply say so. If you have, say so. Any other response is off topic, and simply a waste of all our time.
My opinion only. Others may differ.
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Old February 1, 2009, 10:41 AM   #43
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By your very statements, you opened that door. Now you're upset that some have walked through it.
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Old February 1, 2009, 11:41 AM   #44
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Quote:
good people continue to be good people despite adversity.

Quote:
Most yeah, but some only until they get hungry.

Good people will stay good and bad people will stay bad? I'm confused, because I always thought people could cahnge. Or good will stay good and only the bad can change?
What about the guy (or girl) that hung around the fringes of crime, when they were young, you know, smoked a little dope, KNEW some people that did a B&E now and then, maybe was an innocent bystander that got sucker punched into a bar fight...The whole running with the wrong crowd scenarioB but decided to turn their lives around. Married, 2.5 kids and all of a sudden, no job and still all the bills...Too much time on their hands and no money, maybe the wrong crowd is looking right again.

The old "buddy" may be looking to steal a flat screen to buy crack, but the "changed" guy may do it to put food on the table. And the "changed" guy is the old "buddy's" ticket into new nieghborhoods because his Malibu/Camary/Tuarus wont stand out as criminal. "Changed" guy has ethics and doesn't carry a gun, "buddy" is not so conscientious and all of a sudden...

Bad economy, your nieghborhood, my nieghborhood, stranger in the house with a gun...

Really not that far fetched
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Old February 1, 2009, 11:59 AM   #45
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The only change I've made recently is I've started to open carry around the house a lot more.
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Old February 1, 2009, 12:12 PM   #46
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Not going to get into the "let's see who cqan find the most obscure article with the most maybe, if, could, and might statements about crime" contest, but I will suggest that it is pretty easy to check this. Simply look at the UCR data and compare it to the economic data for previous time periods. What I notice is that we have had some of the highest crime rates during some of the best economic times and we have had some of the lowest crime rates during the worst economic times. If there is a causal link between crime and the economy, AFAIK no criminologist has ever found it. To stay on the topic, I personally don't see any reason to change my personal defense plan at home, work, or otherwise based on the economy.
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Old February 1, 2009, 12:22 PM   #47
Creature
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I'm confused, because I always thought people could cahnge.
You're not confused. Individuals can change. And its usually not for the better when faced with financial ruin, desperation and hard times. Yet some here insist on keeping their head in the sand.

Crime rate increases have a tendency to precede economic downturns by a year or two simply because of the slow recognition of a full-blown recession by the reporting outlets. The current financial meltdown, which started back in 2006, saw murders in the United States jump 4.8 percent that year, and overall violent crime was up 2.5 percent for the year, marking the largest annual increase in crime in the United States since 1991, according to figures released by the FBI in June of 2006. There was a economic recession in 1993...which by the way began in 1991. So, its not just about petty theft and fraud when it comes to economic recessions and crime increases.
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Old February 1, 2009, 12:25 PM   #48
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David Armstrong wrote:
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and might statements about crime" contest, but I will suggest that it is pretty easy to check this. Simply look at the UCR data and compare it to the economic data for previous time periods.
Perhaps you missed this in my post #33:

Quote:
based on FBI reports going back to 1972 and the business cycle chart compiled by the National Bureau of Economic Research, it looks as if violent crime trends upward at the beginning of a contraction and generally stays up through the initial phases of a recovery. The same pattern emerges when you overlay historical statistics for robbery alone from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Holdups increased noticeably in 1973, 1980, 1981, 1990, and 2001, years in which recessions began.
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Old February 1, 2009, 12:41 PM   #49
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Perhaps you missed this in my post #33:
Didn't miss a thing. "Looks as if", "generally", and so on don't do much for me in articles like that, particularly given all the other ifs and mights and maybes in the article. One could have picked other data points and gotten other results. I tend to look at the overall numbers for the period and overall economic issues, not just recession, not specific start or end points, etc .And if you give credence to that article, perhaps you missed in your post that we should have already peaked in robberies, according to many. My last comment on this, as again this is very much off-topic.

Last edited by David Armstrong; February 1, 2009 at 12:50 PM.
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Old February 1, 2009, 12:53 PM   #50
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Since the phraseology of patterns and trends isnt precise enough for you, maybe you should actually look up the other data points that you bring up yourself, since neither the FBI crime data or the National Bureau of Economic Research data are sufficient in your eyes.

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My last comment on this, as again this is very much off-topic.
I very much doubt that...
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