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Old January 13, 2009, 11:23 AM   #1
Brian Pfleuger
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One Shot Stops Database

Someone in another thread posted this link (I couldn't find the thread again or I'd give them kudos). I find the information to be very interesting and thought it would be fun to discuss.

What are your thought on this data?

http://www.handloads.com/misc/stoppi....asp?Caliber=0

I'll start with one observation. In most cases, the samples sizes are too small to be truly indicative of actual performance between calibers and, especially, between bullets within a cartridge.
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Old January 13, 2009, 11:41 AM   #2
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That is a cool Data base.

I was surprised at how many people were shot with a 30-30. It did a good job too.


I would say your statement is correct but there are some good samples sizes for the more popular calibers like 9mm, 45ACP,40 ect.....
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I'll start with one observation. In most cases, the samples sizes are too small to be truly indicative of actual performance between calibers and, especially, between bullets within a cartridge.
It also goes to show how much more of a fight stopper a Rifle is than a handgun. Even the most powerful handguns are not match for a Rifle
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Old January 13, 2009, 11:53 AM   #3
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what does one shot stop means?
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Old January 13, 2009, 11:54 AM   #4
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It means that the BG was stopped with a single bullet.
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Old January 13, 2009, 11:58 AM   #5
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really, ok what about diameter?
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Old January 13, 2009, 12:00 PM   #6
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That is the Marshall and Sanow data. It is interesting, but there are a lot of questions regarding it also. Some put a lot of weight in the numbers, some tend to reject the numbers entirely. A net search should give you plenty of info both pro and con.
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Old January 13, 2009, 12:01 PM   #7
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A net search should give you plenty of info both pro and con.
That would take effort! I'm just kidding. I've looked around, there is plenty of controversy in general about their research. I'm not sure what the argument would about this data however, it seems pretty cut and dry.


Quote:
really, ok what about diameter?

Diameter is indicating the final size of the bullet. For instance, if a 357 magnum says .65 under diameter it means it expanded by roughly .3 inches, which is pretty good.
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Old January 13, 2009, 12:04 PM   #8
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I find it hard to believe those numbers - gross numbers maybe, but that many folks were shot with PMC .30-30 ammo when Remington, Federal and Winchester sell 20 times what PMC does? Makes my "Nope" buzzer go off.

I do not trust the source of that data at all either. For an interesting evenings reading, search Marshall and Sanow here on TFL.
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Old January 13, 2009, 12:11 PM   #9
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Al, That was my thought also. I looked at the data and there were more shootings with a 30-30 with Winchester 150gr JHP's but it was not as good a stopper.

I looked at the 45 ACP 230gr FMJ and I was amazed it did as bad as it did a 62% 1SS.
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Old January 13, 2009, 12:46 PM   #10
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ok, well doesn't it also matter where you shoot? I mean if you shoot in the head the BG will be stopped w/ a 22 bullet
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Old January 13, 2009, 12:51 PM   #11
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ok, well doesn't it also matter where you shoot? I mean if you shoot in the head the BG will be stopped w/ a 22 bullet
It certainly does matter. That's one of the reasons I mentioned the size of the available samples. Over a large enough sample size the variables like shot placement start to "disappear" and you're left with the true story about general effectiveness. That true story might be that there is no real difference between the major SD calibers/cartridges, I don't know for sure.
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Old January 13, 2009, 01:20 PM   #12
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Sam, I now think less of the "data" base - no way in the world they got decent information on that many shootings with a .30-30 AND load data.

Hate to say it, but "super-secret" information has always been an issue with M&S.
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Old January 13, 2009, 01:29 PM   #13
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"stopping power"

Have to agree with "petezakiller". Even several hundred cases are not statistically compelling, partly because of the heterogeneity between individual instances - e.g., range, size/weight of person, and most important, shot placement, etc. I noticed that all the .308 data were for 168 gr match ammo. This isn't the most common .308 ammo out there. Can we conclude that these were likely police or SWAT sniper shootings? If so, then you should expect a very high proportion of one shot stops for obvious reasons. Also, average penetration was given as about 25 inches; that would be unlikely to be measurable in front to back (or back-front) hits on the torso, or extremities or head and neck; in most humans that would be a through-and-through wound. So, how was average penetration measured?

As noted, there is a great deal of controversy about using these data as reliable probability figures.
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Old January 13, 2009, 01:47 PM   #14
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If this "data" is from the Marshall/Sanow book, then supposedly it's based only on center mass/torso shots. There have been many objections raised over the years to the Marshall/Sanow methodology and conclusions, and it's far from established that their conclusions are, indeed, valid and predictive.

I'll not comment further, but count me OUT of the Marshall/Sanow camp.
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Old January 13, 2009, 02:47 PM   #15
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Speaking of the 30-30, I saw some pics of a drunk shot and killed by a 30-30 at CLOSE range. He died so fast, that when he collpased, he held on to this beer in one hand and the cigarette in the other. Nevewr did let go of either one!
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Old January 13, 2009, 03:09 PM   #16
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He died so fast, that when he collapsed, he held on to this beer in one hand and the cigarette in the other. Never did let go of either one!
so does the shooter get points for style or the dead guy for not wasting beer?


a total comparison of all shootings would be nice but probably impossible to get.


and my other idea would be totally out of the question, getting a bunch of bad guys together and shooting them at different ranges with different calibers and recording the data.
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Old January 13, 2009, 03:33 PM   #17
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One shot stop statistics are not gospel and Marshall will agree with that; he teaches shoot to lock-back. It is just one way of many to compare calibers. All they show is that with torso shots, the primary handgun calibers (9mm, 40 s&w, 45, 357 Sig, 357 mag, 10mm) are effective at stopping a threat 90% of the time. They also show the drastic difference in effectiveness of a jhp vs. fmj.

I did find some of the expansion and penetration information in Marshalls book to be interesting; some bullet that do not perform well in 4 layer denim and jello tests work just fine on people. It just goes to show you that you cant base your choices on just one set of information.
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Old January 13, 2009, 03:39 PM   #18
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Some people (such as more than a few over a firearmstactical) seem to think that Marsahall and Sanow intentionally "cooked the books" but I find that a bit hard to believe. It is true, however, that there are some statistical errors in the data and that certain factors such as the person who was shot and shot placement aren't really taken fully into account. I think we can draw some general conclusions from the study though. By and large, JHP is better than FMJ or LRN, a .357 Magnum is better than a .25ACP, a rifle or shotgun is better than a handgun, etc.
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Old January 13, 2009, 03:49 PM   #19
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I keep a 30-30 in My truck as my primary SD weapon. My Pistol is just to fight my way to the rifle. I thought the 30-30 with its friendly wood stock and cowboy looks would be less threatening than my M4. Its good to know that if I shot a drunk he will be DRT and not spill any beer

I am not so sure their this data is true. Its hard to believe that many folks have been killed with PMC ammo. Look at the 38spl data. If its to be believed the 38spl in a 2" gun is more deadly that in a 4".

M&S have been compiling this data for a long time but I am leery of some of it. I checked out the "Best Self Defense ammo" article and the data is almost wholly based on testing.

There are some good points to these tests though:

1. Have a Gun
2. A man with a rifle will kill a man with a pistol, right Blondie
3. Bullet placement is king and Penetration is queen.

Lastly I did not see any shotgun data, maybe I missed it but a shotgun would be my second choice after a rifle for SD(Notice I did not say CCW)
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Old January 13, 2009, 03:58 PM   #20
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Just more proof that the .357 is king! At least among the short guns.
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Old January 13, 2009, 04:03 PM   #21
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Quote:
I am not so sure their this data is true. Its hard to believe that many folks have been killed with PMC ammo.
The data provided is not just from deaths. "Stop" is just referring to stopping the threat from attacking you; you do not have to kill someone to stop their attacks.
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Old January 13, 2009, 05:26 PM   #22
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Curt.45: Another time, two of our guys got into a shootout, shot the badguy 7 or 8 times with 9mm of some type (not sure of bullet) and he lived, although he is now using the colostomy waste removal and collection system. Shortly after we went to the .40S&W. No shootouts since then.

The guy shot with the 30-30 was the dangest thing I've ever seen though.
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Old January 13, 2009, 05:31 PM   #23
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ah, the wonderful "colostomy waste removal and collection system", at least he has a remembrance of the incident.
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Old January 13, 2009, 07:09 PM   #24
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Nice database, just don't forget to take it for what it's worth, nothing more. A hit with a .22 LR beats a miss with a .50 BMG everytime.
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Old January 13, 2009, 07:20 PM   #25
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I don't come to this side of the playground very often, but this one piqued my curiosity.

For my addition to the discussion, just taking the data at face value without discussion of it's validity, it appears that pretty much any firearm will disable a human being. I was frankly surprised at the 27% one shot stop rate for a .25 auto. Not bad, coming from a cartridge where you can visually track the bullet on the way to the target on a sunny day. (I'm not kidding)

On another note, as many other posters mentioned - I'm shocked at how many people are shot with a .30-30. Seriously??? Who shoots someone with a lever-action rifle? Maybe it's just because so many were made and are left leaning in the corner loaded so that's what folks grab?

Quote:
Quote:
He died so fast, that when he collapsed, he held on to this beer in one hand and the cigarette in the other. Never did let go of either one!

so does the shooter get points for style or the dead guy for not wasting beer?
I'm no expert, but I'd guess both, maybe splitting points at the minimum, though the dead guy probably loses points for doing whatever got him shot. Maybe it was the last beer? Course, the shooter would loose points if it was found he was using cheap foreign ammunition. Why use an American classic to shoot someone only to spoil it by using PMC ammo?

Lastly, we ought to be careful about how this information gets spread - if the gang-bangers have that table read to them, they'll be out buying up all the lever-actions! I can see it now - gold plated model 94's in all the rap videos, big tassels on the lanyard rings, rifle racks in the back windows of all the hoopties, sampling quotes from "The Rifleman", John Wayne spinning in his grave...

Last edited by Dr. Strangelove; January 13, 2009 at 07:24 PM. Reason: spelling correction
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