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Old December 30, 2008, 02:08 PM   #101
buzz_knox
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I believe I saw an estimate that there are 700,000 instances of firearms used in SD annually (fired or not). If both those numbers are correct, it would be an average of 396 years before any individual would need a reload in a SD situation.
Basing decisions on such statistical conclusions is what leads people to build homes in 100 year flood zones. They rely on the fact that such a flood has already happened to establish that there home is safe for the foreseeable future. They get shocked when they get flooded out, and even more shocked when it happens again.
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Old December 30, 2008, 02:16 PM   #102
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I've been hit by lightning. That's a rare event. A friend of mine lived through a DC-8 crash that killed quite a few. So when we went to a lecture where the dude said, it's as rare as being hit by lightning or being in a plane crash - we both laughed to ourselves.

Carry a gun and one reload. That's the reasonable middle ground. Now go drink Eggnog (Nod to Capt. Charlie).
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Old December 30, 2008, 02:29 PM   #103
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I've been hit by lightning. That's a rare event. A friend of mine lived through a DC-8 crash that killed quite a few. So when we went to a lecture where the dude said, it's as rare as being hit by lightning or being in a plane crash - we both laughed to ourselves.
I'm going to have to call BS on that one. The odds of two individuals not only having gone through such rare events, but being friends and being in a lecture where such a comment was made are so statistically low as to be impossible. Thus, the event could never have occurred.
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Old December 30, 2008, 02:38 PM   #104
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I've been hit by lightning. That's a rare event. A friend of mine lived through a DC-8 crash that killed quite a few.
Both are far more likely than needing a reload. Now, if you were surfing and got hit by lightning, then bit by a shark before you were rescued, then the ambulance that picked you up was involved in an accident causing you to be air-lifted, resulting in a fatal helicopter crash, you'd probably be in the same statistical neighborhood.

Point being, there's a BIG difference between rare and virtually unheard of.

Someone will say, again, that it's not the odds, it's the stakes. So, I'll head that of by saying, again, that it is BOTH the odds and the stakes. The odds of a meteor landing on your house are 182,138,880,000,000 to 1. Since that number is only 180 times less likely than needing a reload, you'd better be ready. A meteor strike is an almost certain fatal event. You'd better live a couple miles under ground, unless of course you're willing to play the odds instead of the stakes.
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Old December 30, 2008, 04:44 PM   #105
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By David Armstrong:
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There actually is a fairly good lifetime likelihood of being in a DGU situation, just how good depending on which set of numbers you want to trust and how you want to define a DGU. Using Kleck, for example, the lifetime probability is about 1 in 200.
What does DGU mean? I thought Dr Kleck estimates that handguns are presented, but not actually fired, about 2,000,000 times a year to prevent crime. If you figure the adult population of the US is about 250,000,000 (just a guess) then the odds of needing a handgun to prevent a crime are about 1 in 125. And that's just one year. Over a lifetime it would seem that the odds of needing a handgun would be fairly substantial. What am I missing here?

Thanks,
TF
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Old December 30, 2008, 06:12 PM   #106
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not sure about this odds thing.But I know for sure I carry a extra mag to a ripe old age and never need it cool.If I need a extra mag and don't have one I'm not gonna make a ripe old age.
besides I might need to shoot something tomorrow,if I do I'll still have a full gun on the way home.
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Old December 30, 2008, 06:28 PM   #107
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Hope I'm not being too philosophical, but it seems some are willing to prepare themselves to a degree equal to the likelyhood it will happen. A deadly force situation, that is.

Doesn't sound like a wise practice since the odds are that the severity of the attack we face will be the same regardless of those odds.

Would you prepare for an earthquake or flood using that philosophy?
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Old December 30, 2008, 06:29 PM   #108
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What does DGU mean?
If you have to ask you are not prepared.

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Old December 30, 2008, 06:41 PM   #109
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DGU = Defensive Gun Use
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Old December 30, 2008, 07:01 PM   #110
rampage841512
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Two, same stuff in them as in the gun.
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Old December 30, 2008, 07:46 PM   #111
Brian Pfleuger
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Would you prepare for an earthquake or flood using that philosophy?
Yes. The house where I grew up was 100 feet or more higher than flood stage so we did not have flood insurance. There hasn't been a major earthquake in my area in recorded history, hence, I have not earthquake plan.

Let's say it again. It's not the stakes OR the odds. It's both. Do you get on airplanes? Do you go surfing? Hunting? Ride in a car? All these things are more likely to kill you than not having a reload for your CCW. Odds are if anything kills you, besides natural death, it will be a car accident. We still ride around in cars. If it was "the stakes not the odds" we'd never sit in a car.


Quote:
Doesn't sound like a wise practice since the odds are that the severity of the attack we face will be the same regardless of those odds.
Actually, the odds we're talking about are the odds of an attack severe enough to require a reload, not just any attack. If you happen to be the victim of such an attack the odds are obviously irrelevant but if you are involved in a SD incident the odds are VERY, VERY high that you will not need that reload.
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Last edited by Brian Pfleuger; December 31, 2008 at 10:57 AM.
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Old December 30, 2008, 08:39 PM   #112
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If you happen to be the victim of such an attack the odds are obviously irrelevant but if you are involved in a SD incident the odds are VERY, VERY high that you will not need that reload.
since you seam to strictly play the odds. once the SD situation happens the odds are better that you'll need a reload than the odds needing the gun for SD were.
By your reasoning I should just carry a reload and no gun.
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Old December 30, 2008, 08:43 PM   #113
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since you seam to strictly play the odds. once the SD situation happens the odds are better that you'll need a reload than the odds needing the gun for SD were.
No, they're not.


Ok, one more time It's not just the odds or the stakes. IT'S BOTH!

The stakes are very high. The odds are high ENOUGH to justify my CCW. The odds of needing a reload are NOWHERE NEAR high enough to justify my carrying a reload.


Quote:
By your reasoning I should just carry a reload and no gun.
That's just, well, I don't know what that is....
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Old December 30, 2008, 09:02 PM   #114
Glenn E. Meyer
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Ok, Buzz - you made me laugh. I got touch by the divine walking across a parking lot in Buffalo carrying a box of IBM cards to the computer center across a large flat parking lot during a thunderstorm and carrying an umbrella high (good plan). Big flash and simultaneous boom and the electrons came from the umbrella into my noggin. Hit me in the nose piece of my hippy granny glasses (this was the 60's). Ouch.

My buddy was in a DC-8 that ran out of gas on the way to the Portland Airport and crashed. The front of the plane had its passengers killed. The scary thing was that the stewardesses wanted to move all the kids to the front. My friend kept his baby with him and his wife in the back and they made it.

The coincidence of being together was that we were both psych folks. Then, it was a statistics seminar and that's why the speaker was talking about odds.

Years later, I took my daughter to Buffalo and showed her the site of the hit. Then a few years after that, our Buffalo relatives came to TX to visit. We took them out for BBQ and guess what a hellacious thunderstorm broke out while we were having ribs. We got to the parking lot and saw a long flat run to car as the lightning flashed. My kid and I looked at each other and said - NO, sir! and we waited for it to pass.

So I carry an extra mag.
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Old December 30, 2008, 11:29 PM   #115
mavracer
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The stakes are very high. The odds are high ENOUGH to justify my CCW. The odds of needing a reload are NOWHERE NEAR high enough to justify my carrying a reload.
the problem is this is your opinion, your trying to prove it's a fact.
NOT GONNA HAPPEN
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Quote:
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Old December 31, 2008, 12:19 AM   #116
Nnobby45
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Actually, the odds we're talking about are the odds of an attack severe enough to require a reload, not just any attack...
Well, thanks, but I know what the subject matter is.

Carrying a gun when the odds are against using it, but not having a quick reload because the odds are even more against needing one, is a tactical philosophy born of a mind wired up differently than mine, as well as being against most training philosophy.

However, I fully acknowledge the right of any one to stand there with an empty (or at least, not fully charged) pistol after the shooting stops while waiting for the police, who could, depending on circumstances, be a while in coming---while you're wondering where Bubba's buddy is at (if you even knew he had one).

Last edited by Nnobby45; December 31, 2008 at 12:36 AM.
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Old December 31, 2008, 12:35 AM   #117
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I think the correct answer for this question is - There is no CORRECT answer.

It's hard to argue that 1 mag is better than 2, 2 better than 3, 3 better than 4, etc.

I think it all depends on what YOU feel comfortable with.

Should I only carry the gun with the highest mag capacity possible?
Am I at more risk when carrying my 8rd Sig than I am with a 15rd G19?
If so, then why would ANYONE carry an 8rd Sig to begin with?
Why dont we all carry hi cap pistols?

I dont have the answer, but I personally feel just fine with one mag for everyday carry...
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Old December 31, 2008, 12:55 AM   #118
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What does DGU mean?
DGU means Defensive Gun Use and it means whatever the person using the term wants it to mean, as there is no formal or technical definition. Kleck (and I'm paraphrasing very broadly here) uses it to indicate any time a person believes the reference to, display of, acual shooting of, or threat to use a firearm helped them in a threatening situation.
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Old December 31, 2008, 01:05 AM   #119
David Armstrong
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Would you prepare for an earthquake or flood using that philosophy?
Yes. There are different levels of severity (threat) to worry about. I do not prepare for an earthquake where I live. The odds of it happening are so remote that it just does not enter my thoughts. When I lived in California, on the other hand, preparations for an earthquake made sense even though the chance of needing the preparations was pretty slim.
When I was in Oklahoma I did not prepare for or worry about a flood. We lived on a very high elevation. Where I am now a flood is a rare but distinct possibility, so I took out a small flood insurance policy to help me repair should the rare event occur. Proper understanding of risks allows me to prepare properly. Again, that doesn't mean you shouldn't have an earthquake kit if yo want one, or tha tyou shouldn't buy flood insurance if you live on the top of a mountain if that is what you want.
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Old December 31, 2008, 04:49 PM   #120
Nnobby45
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Quote:
Would you prepare for an earthquake or flood using that philosophy?

Yes. There are different levels of severity (threat) to worry about. I do not prepare for an earthquake where I live. The odds of it happening are so remote that it just does not enter my thoughts.......
Well, it would enter your thoughts if the chance of an earthquake were has high as needing a gun. You carry a gun don't you?

Most of us have some supplies at home that would help us survive some sort of traumatic event over a period of time-- and that includes ammo. In the event an event happens when we aren't at home (or even in our vehicle), it could be instrumental to our survival that we have extra ammo on our persons, also.

The wisdom in having extra ammo isn't limited to needing a reload in one gunfight. Some people we've heard from on this thread don't carry enough ammo to reload their pistol afterwards.

I guess now we can hear about the overwhelming odds that the police will be there forthwith and make reloading unnecessary.

Last edited by Nnobby45; December 31, 2008 at 05:02 PM.
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Old December 31, 2008, 05:35 PM   #121
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Well, it would enter your thoughts if the chance of an earthquake were has high as needing a gun. You carry a gun don't you?
But it is not as high as needing a gun. Again, needing a gun is not an improbable event over a lifetime. But the improbability goes up rapidly after that. Even if you use big numbers, like a 10% factor, it gets pretty rare pretty fast. 10% chance you will need a gun, 10% chance you will need to shoot the BG, 10% chance you will need to use multiple rounds, and 10% you will then actually need the spare ammo for something. We're at one-ten thousandths already. That is what same don't seem to see, how quickly a percentage of a percentage of a percentage creates astronomical odds. One can prepare for astronomical odds if they wish, it is not that big a deal, but to try to suggest it is very important is pretty questionable.
Quote:
In the event an event happens when we aren't at home (or even in our vehicle), it could be instrumental to our survival that we have extra ammo on our persons, also.
Could be. First we have to have an event like that, then we have to have another event that requires shooting the gun, then we need another event to require needing to have the gun reloaded. And that is fine if that worries you.
Quote:
The wisdom in having extra ammo isn't limited to needing a reload in one gunfight. Some people we've heard from on this thread don't carry enough ammo to reload their pistol afterwards.
Again, what is the likelihood of that mattering? Equally important, is the issue having a reload or having enough ammo? In other words, who is better equipped, the guy with a Glock 17 and one 17-round magazine or the guy with a 1911 and two 7-round magazines? Or the guy with the J-frame and 2 speedloaders?
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Old December 31, 2008, 08:40 PM   #122
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the problem is this is your opinion, your trying to prove it's a fact.
NOT GONNA HAPPEN

The decision to carry a reload is also opinion and I've said, more than once, that any one who feels it is necessary should go ahead and do it.

Now, having said that, all opinions are not created equal. My opinion is not fact but it most certainly is based on historical fact and statistical data. The opinion to carry a reload is based either on just plain wanting to or intentionally ignoring the facts and believing it is justifiable statistically. If you just plain want to, fine go ahead. If you want to ignore the facts or pretend they're not real or believe that you might be that 1 in 80 billion, then that's fine to, go ahead and carry that reload. As for convincing me:

Quote:
NOT GONNA HAPPEN
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Old December 31, 2008, 09:12 PM   #123
au1776
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No spare. I'm more prepared than most by carrying a pistol and being proficient with it. I'm less prepared than people who carry an extra mag. I'm much less prepared than people who carry an extra mag, a backup, an HK416, 4 flashlights and 60m of rope.

You have to draw the line somewhere.

I agree with what Buzz said about carrying what you want, but from the looks of this thread, it isn't the no-extra-mag folks who are disparaging the others...

Last edited by au1776; December 31, 2008 at 09:21 PM.
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Old December 31, 2008, 09:56 PM   #124
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I carry with four magazines. One reason is that the weight of the magazines helps offset the weight of the pistol. The other reason is....why not? I don't understand the necessity of all of this statistical analysis to rationalize how many (if any) spare magazines one should carry. Bottom line is that if I'm in a situation where I need to draw and fire my carry pistol, I want as many rounds on tap as I can comfortably carry around with me. For me, that is four mags.
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Old December 31, 2008, 09:58 PM   #125
mavracer
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The decision to carry a reload is also opinion and I've said, more than once, that any one who feels it is necessary should go ahead and do it.
yes, you stated your opinion in post 15.since then you have made 15 post trying to prove your right.
the one thing you can't change is the fact that the possibility exists sombody may need a reload or a BUG.If you have it and don't need it no big deal but, if you need it and don't have it your screwed.
I'm not trying to tell you what to do with your life but how will you feel if you get sombody killed because they listen to your opinion.
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Quote:
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