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Old December 3, 2008, 10:49 AM   #1
Keltyke
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Endless Scenarios

Why? It seems we have a couple of threads pop up weekly with some type of title "What would you do...", or "I did this..." and followed by (usually) a made up scenario or (sometimes) a real life story or video.

Well, what I would do might not be what anyone else would do, and might be right or might be wrong. Each situation is different and has so many variables that it's impossible to state with certainty how I would react. In the stories, no one knows the real layout of the scene (descriptions aren't really adequate), or the demeanor of the people involved. "Two BG's walk into a Waffle House" tells me nothing about how they're acting, tone of voice, state of their weapons, etc. The videos are often without sound, eliminating an important piece that would help determine my reaction. Sometimes the videos are so blurred that what's happening can't really be determined, except by the accompanying story. They're less than useless because they often don't inform, but may actually mislead.

I don't know exactly how I would react until I'm actually in that scene - for real. I have no business telling anyone else how THEY should react. Each person is different, each scene is different.

All we can do is practice, maybe on a tactical course/class, and be as prepared as possible. Remember, the only GOOD gunfight is one where no shots are fired. If I and my family are unharmed, then I'm the winner.
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Old December 3, 2008, 11:52 AM   #2
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While those posts can sometimes get outa hand, I find that I learn quite a bit reading peoples opinion on the matter... I think the fact that "every situation is unique and deserves its own unique response" is pretty well known, but that doesnt mean we cant learn something from a "what if" thread... And I think it forces people to sit down and mentally think about what they would do in a similar situation. If im not mistaken, mental preparedness is a rather good thing to have.
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Old December 3, 2008, 12:01 PM   #3
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I thought that's what internet forums were for?
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Old December 3, 2008, 12:05 PM   #4
Keltyke
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KLRANGL and Sparks2112, you make good points. I guess my problem with them is when someone states what they would do and someone else cuts them down in flames along with the usual personal attacks and name-calling. It's easy to say things to a computer screen. When polite debate becomes vicious argument is where it should stop, I guess maybe the Mods should watch these threads a little closer?
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Old December 3, 2008, 12:09 PM   #5
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True, this thread does make sense, but for people who post such things on forums...they are sometimes just seeking advice. Not long ago..in my town..on local news a guy coming out of ez go..went to his car...(like usual...everyday to day thing)..turns out..two black males approached him while he was in his car...one of the males had a gun..and the other demanded money/belongings..here is the story below..all TRUE..


i am putting this story below because real life situations do happen where someone is attacked/robbed...having a little advice on what to do does help somewhat..

just my 2 cents..



E-Z GO armed robbery at 52nd and Rogers Lane
Posted: Nov 26, 2008 10:55 PM Featured Videos
E-Z GO armed robbery

An armed robbery at the E-Z GO at 52nd and Rogers Lane. But it wasn't of the cashier, rather a customer. Lawton Police say about 6:30 Wednesday night a customer parked at E-Z GO. That's when 2 black males approached the car, one with a gun. One of the men jumped in the car and demanded the customer's stuff.

They took off with a bag and the person's cell phone and jumped into a dark blue or black Mitsubishi Diamante. The robbers are described as 6'1'', 180 pounds and 5'8'', 165 pounds. If you have any information call CrimeStoppers are 355-INFO.
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Old December 3, 2008, 12:09 PM   #6
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Scenarios discussions are useful but go to Hell when:

1. Someone insults another because that person suggests a nonfighting response

2. Someone insults another because that person suggests that he or she is SuperCommando X and will easily win the gun fight.

Internet commando, sheeple - take your choice.
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Old December 3, 2008, 12:13 PM   #7
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It is what it is. You can't frequent one of these places and not know what's coming after you post. I tend to ignore the junk, and appreciate the other stuff I pick up.
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Old December 3, 2008, 12:22 PM   #8
Brian Pfleuger
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Quote:
I guess my problem with them is when someone states what they would do and someone else cuts them down in flames along with the usual personal attacks and name-calling.

That is the real problem. There have been a couple of attempts that I've seen to bring some more attention to that very thing, to non avail (apparently). Every discussion is invaded by the usual suspects that want to argue every infinitesimal point and tell any one who cares to debate that they're an idiot.
I've been thinking about this "scenario" question myself and I've come to the conclusion that there are basically 2 choices for "Tactics and Training". We either have the forum it is now or we have a forum with practically no activity at all. How much "Hey, we're having this or that class..." or "I took this or that class.. " can we fill a forum with?


I've said it before, why does anyone really care if some other guy thinks 9mm is useless or they carry chamber empty or whatever? Some people just need to feel knowledgeable or right (or something) I guess.
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Old December 3, 2008, 03:51 PM   #9
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I think Capn Charlie is just taking a break over the holiday weekend. He will be back to thwart the Waffle House scenario fiends.
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Old December 3, 2008, 04:19 PM   #10
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What about this

I as many members am guilty of posting my responce as I would do it ( flaming and being flamed ). maybe the cure is for our fellow members not to respond to the what if's, what would you do threads. Like our lead post states you realy do not know how you are going to react until YOU are involved personaly. All the rest is internet talk. I do think we all can learn much more by practice rather than responding to the what ifs. Again this is just my .02 worth and I have no intention of flaming anyone with this.
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Old December 3, 2008, 04:52 PM   #11
Brian Pfleuger
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I think the cure is a return to civility. "Flaming and being flamed" is totally unnecessary. We should be able to have any discussion imaginable without acting like 5 year olds.


1: "I think Glock sucks."

2: "Alright, you might check out Brand X instead."

NOT 2: "What are you a friggin' moron!? Glock rules the world of Polymer guns! OMG! Some people are so stupid! TROLL!"

or

1: "What I would do in that situation is..."

2: "Well, I think the way to respond is... because..."

1: "Interesting point. I think I'll stick with my way though."

2: "OK"
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Old December 3, 2008, 08:23 PM   #12
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There are scenarios that are no win scenarios.

Take the example above;

EZ-GO robbery;
  1. Don't resist give them what they want and this will all be over. Bad guy takes what they want and leaves.
  2. Don't resist give them what they want and this will all be over. Bad guy takes what they want and shoots you in the head.
  3. Resist but don't have a weapon. Bad guy gives up and leaves.
  4. Resist but don't have a weapon. Bad guy shoot you in the head and leaves
  5. Resist but don't have a weapon. Bad guy shoots you in the head, takes what he wants and leaves.
  6. Resist and CCW - "plan this one out have your weapon in a easy to reach position at all times". Bad guy sees gun and flees
  7. Resist and CCW - bad guy starts to shoot you when seeing gun
  8. Resist and CCW - bad guy misses and you get him.
  9. Resist and CCW - you both miss and bad guy flees

In every situation you can be shot just like in every situation you could come out unharmed. Do you make the situation worse by trying to resist? ONLY THE BAD GUY KNOWS HIS INTENT AND RESOLVE. All you can do is react by being proactive or submissive. We have no idea of the outcome of any situation until it is over. Don't forget that hijacking took on a whole new meaning after 9/11. Now for some reason there seems to be no more hostage situations only people being killed in a massive way.

Lets say the BGs from the EZ-GO came up to you and said, "you won't be harmed just give us what we want." Does submissive become the best choice? Can you trust the word of a guy who is robbing you?
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Old December 3, 2008, 08:57 PM   #13
Keltyke
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Quote:
Can you trust the word of a guy who is robbing you?
My CWP instructor (a 25-year retired veteran of a local police force) advised us this way: On appraising an "imminent danger of loss of life or severe bodily injury" - "If a bad guy approaches you with a weapon or communicating a threat, either verbally or with body language, you MUST assume he will use that weapon or carry through that threat. Act accordingly"

If you believe you will be seriously injured or killed no matter what, then you lose nothing by resisting. If you don't believe the BG really intends you harm, then again, you lose nothing by resisting.

If you don't resist, you may be killed or injured anyway. Some of these people are either juiced on something or just enjoy hurting people.

As everyone has said, it's YOUR call all the way and depends on how YOU assess YOUR particular situation.

Do what you have to do and shed no tears.
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Old December 4, 2008, 07:09 AM   #14
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Isn't it part of the whole process of preparing oneself to run through various "what if" situations, and train accordingly? I think the scenarios that people present here are worth considering. If a guy lives in the everglades and wonders what he would do if poachers or drug dealers started pursuing him in an air boat, I consider his situation, and envision what the same scenario would be in my area.
Many times, I read through a whole thread, and don't post any response, or read the first few posts, and move on. If I feel the need to confront someone, I can PM the guy, though I never have. Traffic on the internet is just like traffic on the street. Of course, I see an awful lot of stupidity, but I have the option of simply moving on about my own affairs. I leave it alone, and it leaves me alone. Perfect!
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Old December 4, 2008, 08:41 AM   #15
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I'm with the OP on this one. There is no way one can be ready with a trained, scripted, reflexive tactical response to every scenario one might encounter. What's more important, at least in my opinion, is having the ability to remain calm, keep one's head in the game, and quickly and accurately assess the threat(s), prioritize your response, and respond effectively. No amount of "response memorization" can really prepare you for that.
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Old December 4, 2008, 09:06 AM   #16
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I guess having a military background could make a difference to scenario interpretation.

I cannot tell you how many times we did something "for training" and it just did not matter what the instructor said, . . . or his rank for that matter, . . . there was always some "commando" who knew more or better or something.

I wasn't there for my favorite one, . . . but it illustrates the point, . . . instructor in SEAR class asked students what they would do if in combat they used their mounted bayonet, . . . and it would not come back out of the person they just stabbed.

All sorts of answers of course, . . . but not the "right" one. Finally the instructor said: "It's simple, . . . simply pull the trigger on your rifle, . . . the combination of the recoil and the impact will dislodge the bayonet."

The dissenting voice from the rear of the room: "If there's any (so and so) bullets left in my (so and so) gun, . . . there ain't gonna be any of that (so and so) hand to hand crap."

While the instructor may have been "technically" correct, . . . I like the mind set of the student.

That is what I personally take from scenarios, . . . they introduce a particular mind set, . . . for a given problem, . . . that can be useful later on, . . . and in some cases, . . . can be modified to fit another scenario. Course, . . . I also remember that scenario answers are only Plan A, . . . need to have a Plan B

May God bless,
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Old December 4, 2008, 10:04 AM   #17
David Armstrong
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Quote:
Does submissive become the best choice? Can you trust the word of a guy who is robbing you?
Yes, and no. That is part of the problem, IMO. Yes, being submissive is the best choice, hands down. All the evidence indicates that as the best alternative. But then you get to the No, you can't trust the BG. To me that is the disconnect that so many fail to get. When you talk about what the odds are, or what is likely to occur in an event, you are talking about something quantifiable on a macro level. But that doesn't eliminate individual acts, the micro level of the issue. Lots of people confuse the two and that leads to arguments because they are looking at the scenario from two very different perpsectives.

Quote:
If you don't resist, you may be killed or injured anyway.
And if you do resist you may cause people to be killed or injured that would not have been harmed at all. So, do you play the odds that say "if I comply there might be a shootout" or "should I not comply and start a shootout"?
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Old December 4, 2008, 10:53 AM   #18
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I think something that is more useful than scenarios and macro statistics might be rules of thumb so to speak at the micro or as I like to call it, the personal level. Many of those have been posted here and they include danger avoidance and well as decision points.

Macro statistics can be misleading when faced with danger. The statistics tell us that most all of us will never face a violent criminal but that statistic is meaningless when YOU are faced with it. If we just use the macro view then there is really no need for any of us to carry or own guns since the "statistics" say the odds are great we will never be accosted by a violent criminal (I carry but have never been attacked). The anti-gun folks use these macro statistics for their own arguments against RTKBA.

Therefore I don't think that this statement:
Quote:
Yes, being submissive is the best choice, hands down.
is true in the personal sense just because macro statistics say it might be. That decision has to be weighed in the moment and so the rules of thumb, training or other criteria come into play and that I think is where the T&T threads may have value.
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Old December 4, 2008, 01:16 PM   #19
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Common sense on the subways of NYC many years back is that you always carry a wallet with $50-100 in it. If someone mugged you, then that was a bribe to them so they wont hurt you. You were to simply be as submissive as possible and then give up your wallet to them without a word. It worked and worked pretty well.

Then Bernard Goetz came into the picture shooting 5 different guys on the subway. Muggings seemed to drop back for a little while.

Being passive and submissive to situations is one answer to certain situations that will get you safely out of trouble and thereby preventing further harm.

However, if there is no one who stands up for their rights then the behaviors are further encouraged. If no one stands up to a mugger, then more muggings are encouraged.

Mr. Goetz spent some time in jail with a lot of publicity around the incident and had trouble obtaining employment thereafter. Many other people who have stood up to muggers and wrong-doers had a fate worse then jail.

Its a hard decision to make. The safe decision is to be passive to the wrong-doers. If you do make that stand, then the consequences can vary up to and including death.

I know that Mr. Goetz's actions probably prevented a lot of crime and may have even saved lives...
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Old December 4, 2008, 01:36 PM   #20
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always carry a wallet with $50-100 in it. If someone mugged you, then that was a bribe to them so they wont hurt you. You were to simply be as submissive as possible and then give up your wallet to them without a word.
Interesting state of affairs, reminds me of feudal days when travelers had to pay tribute to the robber barons. Another reason not to live in NYC I guess.

Quote:
It worked and worked pretty well
Especially for the muggers. I am surprised more people didn't do it. Imagine you are out of cash downtown and you can just mug the nearest women or old person and you are set for the week!

Quote:
I know that Mr. Goetz's actions probably prevented a lot of crime and may have even saved lives...
And that was just one guy! Imagine what 100 plus would have done!
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Old December 4, 2008, 09:05 PM   #21
David Armstrong
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The safe decision is to be passive to the wrong-doers. If you do make that stand, then the consequences can vary up to and including death.
Exactly, and a good way to put it. The macro analysis gives us the most likley outcome for each of us, thus giving the best default position. The micro analysis gives us a personal analysis within the larger "compliance gives the best odds" umbrella, helping to decide if there is some reason to go against the odds and how that can change the outcome for us.
Quote:
Mr. Goetz spent some time in jail with a lot of publicity around the incident and had trouble obtaining employment thereafter. Many other people who have stood up to muggers and wrong-doers had a fate worse then jail.
Right. That is why I like to talk about these situations in the context of loss of resources instead of posturing and such. Which of course gets us back to the thrust of the post, where some try to look at scenarios in a way that pumps up their (usually) imagined sense of warriordom, while others suggest looking at them from a practical position. Thus the conflict.

Last edited by David Armstrong; December 5, 2008 at 01:44 PM.
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Old December 4, 2008, 09:51 PM   #22
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It is what it is. You can't frequent one of these places and not know what's coming after you post. I tend to ignore the junk, and appreciate the other stuff I pick up.
That's pretty much key in any forum.
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