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Old October 20, 2008, 04:02 PM   #26
Glenn E. Meyer
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That's a PM question and not relevant to the topic.
That is a factual statement. If you find that condescending, I can't do anything about that.
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Old October 20, 2008, 05:02 PM   #27
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Nobody asked for your "factual statement". That is the job of the board staff. As I said, you do not have moderator by your name. If you want to be a moderator, maybe the staff would welcome you. Until such time, keep your opinions to my posts to yourself or PM the mods and let them handle it. I don't tell you what to post and what not to post and I certainly think that David is capable of handling himself.
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Old October 20, 2008, 05:03 PM   #28
TINCUP AL
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My thanks to everyone who has contributed to this this thread. There have been some good points brought up. I would like to share the information that I have gathered and the conclusions that I have made up to this point.

I have been looking for just some basic info such as the average shots fired during an encounter, distance, hits or misses, time of day, etc. . Most of the information that I have been able to come up with has involved law enforcement. Other than the fact that LEO's are more likely to be involved, and in some cases don't have the obligation to retreat, I think that the information is very relevant to the general public. I think the information is about the same no matter who is pulling the trigger.

For example, I have determined that the majority ( there are exceptions ) of gunfights are over in 5 shots or less. More shootings occur at night. The majority of gunfights are at a distance of 10 feet or less. The average hits per shots fired is 50 percent. ( and that is at the 10 feet or less distance )

To summarize. The majority of gunfights are at 10 feet or less, with 5 shots or less being fired, and half of those 5 shots hitting their target. Now, there are a lot of other variables, but this is good information to know. These are statistics that are not new to some people, but are to others. I was looking for actual documents that prove these are true. I found what I was looking for with the help of the people on this thread. Thank you.

If anyone has anymore insight into this, I would appreciate hearing it. Thank you.
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Old October 20, 2008, 06:49 PM   #29
Japle
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Al,

I believe you’re pretty close about the 50% hit ratio for civilian shootings. Oddly enough, the hit ratio for police is much lower and for BGs it’s much higher – 90%+. That’s because the BGs don’t start shooting unless they’re sure the fight is going to go their way. Their goal is to get close and use surprise.
Cops and civilians usually start shooting as a response to attack. When you start “behind the power curve”, your accuracy suffers.

In this society, if someone is looking at you in a hostile manner, the normal reaction is to look away. You think you’re saying, “I don’t want any trouble”. The BG is hearing, “I won’t fight you. I’m a victim”.

Stay alert. If someone looks suspicious, watch him and make sure he knows you’re watching him.
It’s rude to stare. Tough. He’ll get over it and you’ll get to go home.
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Old October 20, 2008, 07:07 PM   #30
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Now that was a good post. Short and succinct. The last two paragraphs were especially enlightening.
Good job, Japle.
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Old October 20, 2008, 08:55 PM   #31
TINCUP AL
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There is actually quite a bit of information in the last few years of the New York Police Department's Firearms discharge report. The 50% hit ratio is an eye opener. Not to start the whole semi versus revolver debate, but that 5 shot revolver that suddenly has 2 to 3 good shots in it will make you think. I know that the reports that I have been reading includes a lot of 5 shot revolvers, but it still makes you think that a few more rounds could be comforting.

Japle, where did you find your statistics ? Thanks
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Old October 21, 2008, 12:03 AM   #32
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What is your exact title? What field experience do you have with criminal violence? Are you a military veteran with any combat experience? If you have been involved in some type of use of firearms what was that experience and what was the long term ramifications of that action such as department investigations, civil or criminal charges, or personal problems as a result of that activity?
The staff is not interested in expending the effort to investigate and generate dossiers on "experts" in order to verify that they are who they say they are.

Therefore such inquiries are largely pointless. If the person wishes to respond and attempt to set himself up as an expert based on his credentials and experience then he may make the attempt, but by so doing he opens himself to more personal criticism than is generally acceptable at TFL.

If the person does not wish to respond then that's the end of it.

Given that the person has not responded I'd say that's the end of it.
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Old October 21, 2008, 03:47 AM   #33
dchi
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Try downloading some video clips from live leak.com or some other youtube type source. You can see real footage of shootout, robberies and assaults. Most are very close like 3 yards, very fast with both side exchanging rapid fire until they are empty. Most shots dont hit anything, and most of the people are firing without aiming. They are ducking and firing over their heads. And the bad guys are usually the ones that shoot first.

One good one I saw was a robberie in a Thailand gold shop. Not that this was good, but the video was very clear, it showed tactical errors and it showed good effect of what happens when people get shot. 3 guys come in blasting with pistols. A cop/security gaurd is in the back office. He comes out shooting and drops 2 guys in the shop right away. He runs out the front door to go after the 3rd guy. As he runs past the 2 guys on the ground, one isn't dead yet. He's laying on his back and fires one shot above his head. It hits the cop in the side of the ribs. The cop falls down imediately and his body slid a little it. He didn't even twitch. It looks as if he died instantly before he even hit the ground. The guy that shot him lowers his arm and dies just about 5 seconds later. They all were using FMJ or round nose bullets. Everything happend at a distance of about 2-4 yards. It lasted about 5 seconds with about 12 rounds total being fired. Everyone droped immediately after being shot. The one bad guy was only able to move one arm just a few seconds, but unfortunatley thats all it took. A shop girl who was behind the counter was also shot and killed. In all 4 people died and one bad guy got away. Sad the they didn't ask for anything, they just came in shooting intending to kill everyone inside.
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Old October 21, 2008, 06:29 AM   #34
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history lessons

While history might teach us about what already happened, it is unreasonable for us to expect it to teach us what will happen.

History taught me I will not get to decide what happens.
What happens will be unique to my immediate circumstance.
Why we "prepare for the unexpected".

I have lived all over this great country, and in my actual experience there is a definite difference in human behavior based on region.


There are no statistics for what happens to me, and history will be decided by the survivors.
I am an expert at surviving; my credentials are that I am still here.
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Old October 21, 2008, 06:35 AM   #35
Japle
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Japle, where did you find your statistics?
Mas Ayoob, Dave Spaulding, Gabe Suarez, John Farnam and other places I can’t remember offhand.
Of course, as my wife will tell you, sometimes I just make stuff up!!
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Old October 21, 2008, 10:15 AM   #36
OldMarksman
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Originally posted by Japle:
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I don’t believe that police and civilian shootings are similar enough to be of much help. Cops often get into gunfights because they’re searching for BGs, doing raids, working under cover, etc. Civilians, at least the smart ones, do their best to stay away from situations where they might get into trouble. Cops run toward the sound of gunfire. We run the other way.
Or get into a safe place and let the threat come to us.

I think that's an extremely good comment, relevant not only to the question at hand but also to many other discussion topics regarding firearm choice, tactics and strategy, etc. Same comment applies to SEALS, Special Operations Command forces, FBI....

Last edited by OldMarksman; October 21, 2008 at 10:20 AM. Reason: spelling
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Old October 21, 2008, 10:50 AM   #37
David Armstrong
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Oddly enough, the hit ratio for police is much lower and for BGs it’s much higher – 90%+.
Not so odd when you consider the police role and how it impacts the shooting decision. Also, if you look at the BG hit rate in actual gunfights with the police, the hit rates are very similar.
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Old October 21, 2008, 10:52 AM   #38
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Given that the person has not responded I'd say that's the end of it.
Actually the person has responded in a PM, just as he said he would.
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Old October 21, 2008, 10:57 AM   #39
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While history might teach us about what already happened, it is unreasonable for us to expect it to teach us what will happen.
But it is quite reasonable to expect that history will teach us what is likely to happen, and thus it can guide our training and our planning. That is the essence of this kind of stuff. While we might not be able to predict events with a 100% success rate that doesn't mean that we can't or shouldn't make any predictions at all.
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Old October 21, 2008, 11:24 AM   #40
Glenn E. Meyer
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Past history is useful as it gives us a range of possibilities. Not to beat a dead horse, IMHO - the problem is the use of central tendency to assume that is close to what always happens and that folks need to take a serious looks at what extreme situations do you deal with.

For example, thinking about this thread going to the office - I pondered the average distance of a gun fight. It's said to be short. However, that's the usual single mugger, dude in the living scenario.

It is a rare but not impossible situation to face a rampage shooter. The length of our hallways, leading to a target rich classroom, from my office is about 50 yards. IIRC, an AF MP took down a rampage shooter with an M9 at 75 yards. So, does the average distance based on mostly property crime distance aid me in thinking about a work place nutso scenario?

The reports of central tendency is what you typically get from gun rag stats. Ayoob, Farnam, etc. may mention the average and but having met and trained with them - they are also aware that isn't the only game in town.

Forensic literature found that with rifle homocides - 85% or so took place at a significant distance. However, there are more handgun homocides. So is a simple distance average enough?
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Old October 21, 2008, 11:35 AM   #41
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It is a rare but not impossible situation to face a rampage shooter. The length of our hallways, leading to a target rich classroom, from my office is about 50 yards. IIRC, an AF MP took down a rampage shooter with an M9 at 75 yards. So, does the average distance based on mostly property crime distance aid me in thinking about a work place nutso scenario?
I think that is the key, Glenn. Are you only concerned with the work place nutso scenario? We all have limited resources, some more limited than others. Do we best expend those resources preparing for the rare but not impossible situation, or do we best expend those resources preparing for the far more likely possibility? And how do we determine what is rare and what is likely without understanding the data available to us? As an example, for a long time we taught our police officers to be pretty good, but slow, shots at 25 yards, but didn't spend much in teaching them to fight fast and furious at close range. Once we started really looking at what went on in those fights, we began to change the focus of the training. Certainly it would be nice if we could all spend 40 hours a week on the range with unlimited free ammo being trained by top instructors, but since we can't how do we decide what to devote our resources to without a good understanding of what we are likely (and unlikely) to face? Of course, whether it really matters much in the long run or not is a different question<G>!
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Old October 21, 2008, 11:52 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by Sportdog
Nobody asked for your "factual statement". That is the job of the board staff.
The job of the board staff is to keep things civil and on topic. This is neither. Let's keep this on topic and keep the urination competitions over credentials out of it, OK?
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Old October 21, 2008, 12:03 PM   #43
TINCUP AL
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This is a good discussion. David and Glenn, I would have to say that I agree with you both. There are an unlimited amount of variables to any situation, and it would serve anyone good to practice all that you can on those variables. It is still good to know what the "average situation" is like ( if there is such a thing ) but I think you get what I mean. We teach our students what the statistics say the averages are, but we have them train for all possible scenarios, as the possibilities are endless as you well know. I am all ears for more info. Please continue on.
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Old October 21, 2008, 12:21 PM   #44
Glenn E. Meyer
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I agree TCAl - the crucial principle is to understand the various situations and plan for reasonable contingencies.

I agree with David that we have to train for what is modal and that past bullseye oriented training did not. There are quite a few studies showing that modern FOF training for what Dave discusses has dramatically improved performance. One thing that was neat about the NTI was that they threw all kinds of stuff at you. From up close to a surprise guy up hill 150 yards away.

I had a simple point which was that folks used the average as an exclusive statistical viewpoint but you two have it nailed.

Discussions like this aid in the evolution of professional and civilian training. Personally, I'm trying to be eclectic in what I do. Luckily I have some time and motivation to do such. For example, I've been shooting some steel lately as it has some longer range pistol targets.

Ah - I just like trigger time.
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