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Old March 19, 2008, 10:46 PM   #51
Doc TH
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firepower

Actually, binomial means that the probability of a "success" remains the same in each trial. It has nothing to do with a normal or Gaussian distribution, that's why there are different statistical tests used for binomial events than for continuous events. But enough of that.

The concept of "probability" is directed toward the relative likelihood of various outcomes. Of course my using Vioxx versus Motrin does not guarantee I am am going to have an adverse event. But if choosing a particular drug increases the likelihood of having a bad outcome compared to an alternative drug, I know which one I am going to take (or prescribe to patients). Your opinion may differ.

Opinions as to appropriate round capacity are personal interpretations of probability estimates. FYI I have attached a portion of a NYPD study of police-perp shootings covering more than 6000 cases.


"NYPD SOP 9 - ANALYSIS OF POLICE COMBAT


Rapid Reloading

The average number of shots fired by individual officers in an armed
confrontation was between two and three rounds. The two to three rounds per
incident remained constant over the years covered by the report. It also
substantiates an earlier study by the L.A.P.D. (1967) which found that 2.6
rounds per encounter were discharged.

The necessity for rapid reloading to prevent death or serious injury was not
a factor in any of the cases examined.

In close range encounters, under 15 feet, it was never reported as necessary
to continue the action.

In 6% of the total cases the officer reported reloading. These involved
cases of pursuit, barricaded persons, and other incidents where the action
was prolonged and the distance exceeded the 25 foot death zone."
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Old March 20, 2008, 07:14 AM   #52
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That is great Doc. So how much ammo will you need in your gunfight?

You are talking about trends. No doubt that whatever amount of ammo you use in your gunfight will not change the trend.

If you want to play the historic probability game for a justification to not carry much ammo, that is fine. However, understand that the history probability game is the same one used by the antis to justify the reason why folks won't need to use guns or why Glen and I have noted that you don't need any ammo at all.
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Old March 20, 2008, 01:39 PM   #53
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Double N

No one is trying to discredit your belief in being prepared for the worst. We all do that to a certain degree just by carrying a gun that we will most likely never need in the first place.

We are just saying that "most" confrontations that involve a gun are not going to become running gun battles. In the case of such a prolonged battle other factors will also probably come into play such as cover and retreat, arrival of law enforcement, etc.

If we are ever in the mall and the SHTF I will have to either make do with my 10 rounds and then crap my pants or hope that you or somebody equally as prepared in somewhere nearby.
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Old March 20, 2008, 03:04 PM   #54
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I've never felt undergunned with the normal 8 rounds I usually carry. Sometimes 10 with the 9mm, and sometimes I have a BUG, but generally I don't have a reload. In certain situations, like travel to a wilder area, I may take along a reload but not normally. In times of high tensions, I stay home more or take alternate routes to the norm, but never, say, opt for the PLR-16 on a sling rather than the common H&K or Kimber. I suppose that's possible, but I hope to have the sense to be out of here before it ever gets that bad.

If I lived in Detroit proper, I'd carry about 5 reloads.
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Old March 20, 2008, 05:11 PM   #55
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I believe five rounds is enough to settle just about situation a law abiding civilian is likely to get themselves into. So, I carry at least ten to be on the safe side.
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Old March 20, 2008, 06:17 PM   #56
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Apples and oranges, but...

a light, one day load at one time was 7x 30rd mags of 5.56, and 4x 15rd mags of 9mm...

so it's apples and oranges, but still a spare pistol mag doesn't really seem like overkill...
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Old March 20, 2008, 06:41 PM   #57
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Five or more rounds is probably the minimum.
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Old March 20, 2008, 09:12 PM   #58
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Long time ago, I walked into harm's way every day with nothing more than a Model 19. No speed loaders, no tactical flashlights, tactical knives--all of that would've given me away as a cop pretty quick. And cell phones were barely getting started back then and were only in your car.

Nowadays, I try very hard not to walk ANYWHERE where I think having a gun is not such a bad idea, let alone needing spare magazines and speedloaders and backup guns.

Depending on what I'm in the mood to carry on what day and what I'm wearing, I either have six rounds, eight rounds, or sixteen rounds.

There are two types of situations you can find yourself in when you pull your weapon.

You're either in a defensive situation where you're pulling your weapon in order to terminate an immediate threat to your life or well-being, or that of someone in your immediate proximity. If you're prepared, you shouldn't need more than a couple of rounds.

Or you're in an offensive situation where someone has started shooting, robbing, beating or whatever and you decide to intervene. You damn sure better know what you're doing if decide to intervene.

But it also sounds like some folks are drooling over the prospects of being able to "intervene." I know of two such people right here in the DFW area. One is an acquaintance, who I don't particularly think much of in the first place and who has no idea what my background is. He goes on and on after shooting incidents such as Omaha, VA Tech, etc.

He dreams of being the hero who kills the bad gunman, saves the innocent bystanders and is lavished with respect, praise and admiration by envious gun-owners who wished THEY could've been there and taken the shot.

I don't think this guy goes to the crapper without two guns, six magazines, knives, flashlights and tactical toilet paper.

The other guy I know from one of the ranges I shoot at. He's always lecturing other shooters on "what they're doing wrong." He normally only lectures new/novice shooters. Experienced shooters politely shrug him off, and when he doesn't leave them alone, they tell him to (coitus) off. He runs in place, does pushups, jumping jacks, hits himself in the gut and actually slaps himself --hard--on the head, then grabs his gun and BAM BAM BAM BAM BAM BAM at the targets that have actual photographs of hokey looking actors holding knives.

Then he tells us "that's how REAL combat is."

We ask him what combat he's seen, and he gives us the sly wink and grin and says, "Can't tell you, 'cause we were never there." wink wink.

Damn right he was never there. If he had been, he would sure as hell be able to shoot a lot better.

And, he wouldn't be so anxious to "mix it up," as he calls it, here in the States with some street criminal or store robber or mall shooter.

At a unit reunion several years ago, several of us were talking about what we carry. Buddy of mine put it best, "I only carry what I need to get the job done."

That's pretty much how I feel.

Jeff
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Old March 20, 2008, 09:45 PM   #59
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Quote:
If we are ever in the mall and the SHTF I will have to either make do with my 10 rounds and then crap my pants or hope that you or somebody equally as prepared in somewhere nearby.
A firearms instructor from TDSA (Tulsa) told me that I will fight like I train and so should train like I fight. I told him I could not pee that much in a range session.

Historical trends are heuristically interesting, insightful, but that is about it.
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Old March 20, 2008, 09:48 PM   #60
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Quote:
A firearms instructor from TDSA (Tulsa) told me that I will fight like I train and so should train like I fight. I told him I could not pee that much in a range session.
I could not train the way I fight if I wanted to either. There are seldom any obese women or baby strollers at the range that I can hide behind.
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Old March 21, 2008, 02:52 PM   #61
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Nowadays with gangs and easier access for people to get guns. Most of the time I have noticed if there is a confrontation it will not just be with one person and there can be more than one weapon firing at you.

I carry my 2 14rd magazine on me and have 2 more 17rd magazines in my car. I rather be safe than sorry.

Growing up I didnt hang out with the nicest people and have had my share of bullets coming at me. Luckily nothing has happened. Each time there was a confrontation or if I ever saw one there was definitely more than one person that had a weapon on them.
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Old March 23, 2008, 10:49 AM   #62
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Rule of Fives vs. Lies, Damed Lies and Statistics

Statistically, most gun fights occur at five yards or less, involving five shots or less, and are over in five seconds or less.

However, I don't think there's such a thing as an "average" gunfight IRL, and as succinctly pointed out above, no one has ever died from having too much ammo. That said, my carry guns range from 5 - 10 rnds, and I carry at least one reload. YMMV.
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Old May 11, 2008, 09:30 PM   #63
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Do yourselves a favor and go on Youtube and watch the footage of the LA riots or Hurrican Katrina. See how little it takes for societal rules to be thrown by the wayside and otherwise good people, loot, steal, assault, etc.....All it takes is a natural event, a shutdown of water, power, (or in LA is was a court decision) or an outbreak of disease and suddenly the calm and controlled world you live in turns to a lawless chaos where the ability to defend yourself is the ONLY thing saving your butt. I don't walk around with a "ruck" loaded for this event and its not practical too. I have preparations at home but what if I'm at the mall with my wife and the kids are at school? How easy would it be in an outbreak like that to get to my children and then home where we can buckle down to weather the storm or load up the car to flee? I don't know but having a good supply of ammo isn't going to hurt. In a simple self defense scenario, if only a few shots are fired, the extra ammo isn't going to hurt.
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Old May 12, 2008, 09:32 AM   #64
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My solution when weight is a real factor is a SIG P226 9mm and a spare magazine.I think If I cant get it done with 31 rounds fate is against me.
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Old May 13, 2008, 10:16 AM   #65
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As soon as you say the average gunfight - I say to you, go to stat class. My same old point. Why, why - when I teach this crap - I spend tons of time on central tendency and distributional characteristics.
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Old May 13, 2008, 05:57 PM   #66
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Hardball, with that logic you shouldn't carry at all. I mean if you need a gun, than the fates are against you aren't they? The very fact you have a weapon at all is because you are empowering yourself to not depend on fate or the mercy of others. I wish to determine my own fate.
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Old May 13, 2008, 06:31 PM   #67
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Did somebody say Firepower???

I carry #$%^ load of ammo in the car and it due to where I live and travel. That said, when I am out of car alone I carry one piece one load what that may be. Usually its G26 with 10+1 hollow points. I figure if I am where I cant get out of jam with a few shots, I am not prepared at all. Such situations are ambushes or when you go in for gun fight. Then I dont carry a pistol. Its time for my cavalry equiped with AK47 drum mags, M4s, G3s (not HK) and MP5s.

But thats a whole different ball game here in Pakistan. I lived US and really never felt the need to carry a piece 24/7. May be a handful of times in over a decade I thought I should have a gun.

You guys in US are over prepared, but I guess better be safe than sorry.
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Old May 13, 2008, 09:56 PM   #68
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Hello, Double Naught...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Archie
I think it very unlikely to be confronted with a reinforced battalion of Red Chinese regulars in the daily course of commerce. The least amount I carry is for a S&W M36 - with one reload. If I haven't solved my problem in ten rounds, I'm in way over my head.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DNS
So because you are in way over your head, you give up or quit?
Not exactly... Presuming every time I fire a shot I hit an opponent and every time I hit an opponent he (she/it?) falls incapacitated... How many am I going to get prior to be overwhelmed? Ten? Fifty? Three? I hate to be the one to break this to you, Double, but sooner or later, it's going to be your turn. Perhaps from evil action, perhaps from a bad ticker, but it will be your turn sooner or later. As it will be mine. I can't see carrying a Government Model and six extra magazines (total of fifty rounds) every step of my life and dying with the better part of six magazines unfired. It's just - wasteful.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Archie
I cannot foresee a situation calling for suppressive fire. Then again, I consider 'suppressive fire' a well aimed and delivered shot to suppress the problem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DNS
You may get in over your head more easily than you my realize.
Yes, I may. Or I may not; I'm pretty observant as a rule. One pays one's money and takes one's choices - and chances.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DNS
Waters' "The Best Defense" has a great story on how suppressive fire was used by a guy on his first trip back to a gun range after open heart surgery. It was a gun battle that took place in traffic outside of Houston where he used suppressive fire to keep bad guys from doing further harm to a trooper they had already downed.
So how many other people did he wound, terrorize or endanger with his 'suppressive' fire? Like I said in my first posting, I consider suppressive fire to be a well aimed shot (and hit) to suppress the attacker.

For every instance of self-defense suppressive fire used to solve or stay a problem, I can show you several instances of poor marksmanship and unreasonable danger to the community at large arising from too high a magazine count. For instance - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pitt.../s_341036.html
Quote:
Two undercover policemen and a shooting suspect fired at least 103 rounds during an early morning shootout ...
or http://www.luoamerican.com/baldilock..._lights_b.html
Quote:
The deputies, however, were no less of a hazard to the health of the neighborhood. They fired 120 rounds at the guy, but he barely gets scratched. Plenty of collateral targets, like houses and windows belonging to same are hit, however. One of the deputies even stops one of his buddy's bullets with his vest; 'friendly fire.' (The phrase sounds so benign, doesn’t it?) And no gun was found on the suspect.
I think there's an argument to be made that large magazine capacities decrease marksmanship.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DNS
You may find you need your suppressive fire to egress from a situation where you are in over your head.
The old 'fire a bunch of wild shots and run like heck' trick? Not my style. If I have to shoot, I shoot at a specific target.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Archie
Perhaps I'm over optimistic. Yes, I have the cell phone for back up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DNS
If you think a cell phone is back up, you are overly optimistic. I can hear it now....
"Don't come another step closer or I will call someone!"
And again, you misunderstand the technology and the tactic.

Punch in the speed dial setting for 911; give location and best avenue of approach - in between gunshots - finishing with "I'm the scared looking fat guy with the revolver". Not hanging up, place cell phone on deck or other relatively protected place and continue with immediate problem.

Currently, I live in a fairly densely populated urban area. Suppressive fire - pray and pray tactics - are ill advised.

But I'll tell you what, Double Naught; you do what you like. Please don't kill my dog or me in the process.
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Old May 13, 2008, 10:54 PM   #69
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i carry 6+1 in the gun, and a 7 round mag in my pocket. if 14 won't due, i've got bigger problems...
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Old May 14, 2008, 05:06 PM   #70
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OK. So what is the BENEFIT to carrying less ammo? I mean, if I get into a shooting scenario, and I AM over my head, what is the benefit of not having more ammo? Why should I choose to carry less even if I won't need it? Am I less prepared for the shooting that only requires 1-2 shots because I have a spare magazine on my belt?

Quote:
I think there's an argument to be made that large magazine capacities decrease marksmanship.
Nonsense: Poor TRAINING leads to poor marksmanship. THe magazine capacity has nothing to do with it. I challenge ANYONE to out shoot me and my M&P with their snubbie. We can both fire 15 rounds at the target and you can then explain to me how my high capacity magazine threw off my shooting. In fact, I wonder how many rounds a revolver or other low capacity weapon shooter tends to fire in a practice session? I normally fire 50-100 rounds. ALL well aimed. I would wager most low capacity guys don't reload mags and speed loaders to shoot as many rounds. Some do.

Perhaps you should read a story about a man named Sgt. York. He was in over his head and through his own courage, and a lot of ammo, he not only survived but PREVAILED over a superior force.

I, for one, and not going to give up just because I am in a bad situation. My life means way to much to my wife and my wife and kids for that. You may think you are always aware, and would never get in a bad situation. If thats the case, why carry at all?? Couldn't you just avoid the situation where you would need it? It seems you concede that may not be possible.

Here are my additions to the cliche pool:
Chance favors the prepared mind.
and
Its better to have it and not need it, that to need it and not have it!

Booyah.
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Old May 15, 2008, 01:37 AM   #71
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For me it's not so much an issue of reloads, as I probably won't have to reload in an off duty encounter, it's more of an issue of having a gun accessable to me when I need it.

Having had to deflect a blade while drawing my BUG reinforced to me that I need to carry more than one gun. That way I can draw with either hand. Looking at my lifestyle, mode of dress and preferred modes of transportation has led me to the conclusion that I need to carry three guns off duty.

One is for the "Primary" and the second is for the weakside. The third is for when I'm sitting, as I can't draw the first two very well from a seated position. I usually carry at least two reloads, but sometimes four.

Now, bear in mind, my preferred weapon is a Revolver, so my round count is low compared to some of you. I doubt I will have to empty a gun, but you never know. I'd much rather have another gun than a reload. My minimum is two guns, my preferred is three guns.

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Old May 15, 2008, 07:37 AM   #72
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Round count for me depends on the cartridge and role of the gun.

5 shot .38 (or single stack .380)-Good enough for carry for a minimal risk environment. The 7 shot .32 however IMO should be supplemental.

9mm-I expect more of this and would demand a minimum 12+1. It would have to be a mighty small micro to be any less than that, in which case it would fill the role stated of the .38

45-Prefer the single stack in this so have to live with 7-8+1; Though I consider it not much better than a 9mm, 8 rounds of .45 is FAR more comforting than 8 of 9mm

12 ga.-Clint and Jeff thought doubles, even singles were alright. 4+1 minimum for me (again, unless a micro AOW), which should be plendy for any legit SD situation, but 8 or 9 on tap is very reassuring.

If you could put up with the weight and carry outdoors mostly, an 8 shot .357 mag has serious firepower. double stack .45's and 10mm as well.
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Old May 15, 2008, 04:53 PM   #73
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Stick one hand in a fire and grab a chunk of dry ice with the other. On average, you are quite comfortable. Averages mean little when it comes to a single event.
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Old May 15, 2008, 05:08 PM   #74
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"Suppressive fire - pray and pray tactics - are ill advised."

I agree. If you waste ammo suppressing and warnnig, you WILL need all those extra mags.
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Old May 15, 2008, 05:16 PM   #75
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Quote:
So many people I have met that have decided to CCW seem absolutely convinced that they need at least a 15 round magazine capacity and that revolvers are entirely too limited in capacity. How many rounds do you think a person needs in a defensive pistol? More than six? More than 10?
Whatever the CCW carrier deems they want to carry. I have no troulbe with people who carry a 5 shooter or a 17 shooter. It's up to them. As long as they can conceal it, or two, or three, or however many handguns they want to carry, it's fine with me.

To say there is a limit is to say the state should limit. Cops carry 17 shooters, so why not anyone else????

FWIW, I carry a Glock 27 usually with 11 rounds and a spare 10 round mag. BUT, I still have my Glock 26, capable of holding 13 rounds. Either way is fine with me. Same goes for a Glock 19 with 15 to 17 round mags.
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