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Old March 18, 2008, 09:55 AM   #26
Glenn E. Meyer
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Everybody jabbers about a point in a distribution of events when you should really consider the confidence interval.

The most telling 'point' is that most DGUs have no shots fired - thus don't carry ammo.

Most of these discussions are pure BS as the discussants really don't understand the use of statistics and risk evaluation. Sorry to be direct but that's the case.
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Old March 18, 2008, 11:17 AM   #27
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Ah the Wisconson. Nine 2700 pound shells on the way. THat's REAL firepower!
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Old March 18, 2008, 12:49 PM   #28
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Care to explain your rational on that one?
Sure, because the events are mutually exclusive, what happened in the past doesn't predict what will happen in the future as by definition, mutually exclusive events are mutually exclusive of one another. Your statistics are a ratio analysis interpreted to indicate a trend, not an event.

So, while historical data may shot that shooters in gunfights fire an average of 2-3 rounds, that bit of data bears no predictive value on what will happen to the OPer in his gunfight.

For example, if you flip a penny and it comes up heads 9 times in a row, what are the chances the coin will come up heads on the 10th flip? The historical data suggest there is a 100% chance of a head being the result. The reality is that since the coin is two sided, there is a 50% chance. The historical data are mutually exclusive events have NO bearing on the 10th flip.
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Old March 18, 2008, 01:06 PM   #29
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How many rounds do you think a person needs in a defensive pistol?
At least one. Dont matter if you cant hit the side of a barn. Practise and find a weapon that fits you and you shoot well, gives ya a bit O confidance and that is more important than rounds carried. Besides they do add weight.
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Old March 18, 2008, 02:12 PM   #30
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+1 micro

more the merrier
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Old March 18, 2008, 02:18 PM   #31
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Sure, because the events are mutually exclusive, what happened in the past doesn't predict what will happen in the future as by definition, mutually exclusive events are mutually exclusive of one another. Your statistics are a ratio analysis interpreted to indicate a trend, not an event.

So, while historical data may shot that shooters in gunfights fire an average of 2-3 rounds, that bit of data bears no predictive value on what will happen to the OPer in his gunfight.

For example, if you flip a penny and it comes up heads 9 times in a row, what are the chances the coin will come up heads on the 10th flip? The historical data suggest there is a 100% chance of a head being the result. The reality is that since the coin is two sided, there is a 50% chance. The historical data are mutually exclusive events have NO bearing on the 10th flip
Your point is somewhat valid. I will give you the fact that the human variable is always an undetermined factor. But you still cannot discard factual, real world accounts.

The coin flip example is not applicable here. There are only two possible outcomes and you are trying to relate a mathematical certainty to an uncertain event.

A better example would be that statistics show a shark will not attack a diver in clear water. That does not mean a shark will not attack a diver in clear water but it does mean you use the information to calculate the odds of your likelihood of being attacked. After doing so it would make sense to remain calm and not act aggressively...not to ignore that data and start to violently defend yourself against the shark.
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Old March 18, 2008, 03:23 PM   #32
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Yes, the coin example was overly simplified, but since you didn't seem to understand the concdept of mutually exclusive events and lack of predictiveness for a given event, I had to explain things at the most basic level.

As for discounting the usefulness of the example because of only two outcomes, that is the setup you provided, actually. You noted that if the OP's shooting event followed the historical data, he would only need 2-3 shots. So you have set up the bivariate possible outcome of either he will follow the historical pattern of 2-3 shots, or he won't, much like the coin example, heads or tails.
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Old March 18, 2008, 03:30 PM   #33
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As for discounting the usefulness of the example because of only two outcomes, that is the setup you provided, actually. You noted that if the OP's shooting event followed the historical data, he would only need 2-3 shots. So you have set up the bivariate possible outcome of either he will follow the historical pattern of 2-3 shots, or he won't, much like the coin example, heads or tails.
Sorry you read it that way, but what I am saying is that history shows that most bad guys are not going to be prepared to engage in a long term assualt and your likelihood to be involved in a dissimilar event is very, very small.

Still, there is nothing wrong with choosing to be prepared for the unlikely. Just by carrying a gun we are choosing to do that anyway.
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Old March 18, 2008, 03:35 PM   #34
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Coin flip statistics are not applicable; you’re dealing with human behavior not random mathematical events. There is truth in the statement “lies, damn lies, and statistics” and you do have to use the proper statistical methods when looking at data, otherwise the data can be used to misrepresent the facts. That being said, my admittedly informal review of real life self defense cases indicates that a 5 or 6 shot revolver is sufficient for the vast majority of civilian self defense situations. Extra rounds may make you “feel” better but don’t end up getting fired. If someone has access to self defense cases studies which show a civilian has needed 30+ rounds plus a BUG I would love to read em.

Best advice I have read is to carry as many rounds as you can comfortably carry and which also make you feel comfortable.
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Old March 18, 2008, 03:36 PM   #35
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How many shots will I need ?

I haven't got a clue. I carry an 8 shot revolver. I really do not figure on a reload.
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Old March 18, 2008, 05:32 PM   #36
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I guess the question then becomes, what do you consider to be in the realm of possibilities?

Would any of you be shocked if a group of radical muslims opened fire in a mall?

If so how much ammo would you want to have?
If they were coordinated, you would need suppressive fire. My 31 shots wouldn't even be enough. But before you say that this is a far fetched idea, it just happened in a school in Israel. Before 9-11 using planes to attack buildings would have sounded impossible, but now how many of us have thought " one armed pilot, or armed attendant could have changed history".

So, what do you consider to be in the realm of possibilities?
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Old March 18, 2008, 05:59 PM   #37
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Howdy all. OP here. I have to say you are making some interesting points on this subject. I had incorrectly assumed that almost everyone had gone over to large capacity magazine fed guns and am surprised at how many others carry a 5 shooter besides myself. Being almost an old fart myself I have always liked revolving guns(though I did the 1911 IPSC thang for most of the 80s and 90s) One thing I noticed in IPSC was on more than a few occasions big name shooters with custom factory built guns at National matches scratching their heads looking at their 1911 which suddenly stopped working. Kinda reinforced my faith in wheelguns for serious work. But I just figure 5 or 6 rounds plus two reloads were always enough, though as some have pointed at, you just never know. Maybe when I get too old to run away I'll carry more reloads. Loved that overhead shot of the USS Wisconsin making thunder. Now that is Firepower! Bless you all.
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Old March 18, 2008, 06:11 PM   #38
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"Statistically speaking" without facts or sources is an assumption at best!
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Old March 18, 2008, 07:18 PM   #39
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Statistics are worthless, you can use statistics to prove anything
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Old March 18, 2008, 07:23 PM   #40
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Would any of you be shocked if a group of radical muslims opened fire in a mall?

If so how much ammo would you want to have?
If they were coordinated, you would need suppressive fire.
If there is a group of them and they are coordinated I will not be letting loose with any large amount of fire that would give away my position.
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Old March 18, 2008, 07:29 PM   #41
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If I'm out and about, one mag in the gun and thats it. Same goes with my revolver. Soemtimes, I'll bring an extra mag but I'll ussually leave it in the car.
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Old March 18, 2008, 07:30 PM   #42
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If I'm out and about, one mag in the gun and thats it. Same goes with my revolver.
One question...how do you get a mag to stay in your revolver? They always fall out of mine.
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Old March 18, 2008, 08:04 PM   #43
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rounds capacity

The biggest problem with Double naught's coin flip example is not its "simplicity". It is the fact that a coin toss is a binomial distribution, not a normal distribution. With a fair coin we know the probability of each possible outcome on each toss is exactly 0.5

Let's get real; we always use past events to predict likely future events. That's what probability is all about. If I had a choice of two medications to treat the same condition, oh let's say Naproxen or Vioxx, are you saying I should not consider the fact that the FDA issued a warning on Vioxx based on past observed adverse events?
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Old March 18, 2008, 08:49 PM   #44
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Firepower? I do not think firepower means amount of rounds, or weapons carried. Brainpower (I think) is firepower. If someone is smart enough to be aware of what is going on around them and avoid a situation then they used the ultimate firepower.

Thats what I am getting from PBPs posts.

That said I just tallied up what I just carried to the store and ouch, I wont even, but. I do carry 2, one for me and one for the wife, and she shoots almost as well as I do......................
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Old March 18, 2008, 09:09 PM   #45
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The biggest problem with Double naught's coin flip example is not its "simplicity". It is the fact that a coin toss is a binomial distribution, not a normal distribution. With a fair coin we know the probability of each possible outcome on each toss is exactly 0.5
Actually Doc, due to the fact that it is probability, non-normal distributions of flips can and do occur.

Since you want to get real, your FDA example will not tell you one way or the other whether or not YOU will have the reaction/problem to Vioxx. Your event is independent. They are looking at trends, not individual events when it comes to prediction.

The OPer's gunfight will be a mutually exclusive event.
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Old March 18, 2008, 09:30 PM   #46
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For a "defensive" situation I think the answer varies too much because of the nature of the question. If I was attacked my a lone individual with a knife. A single stack 45 with a spare mag would be very comforting. If a disaster were to happen and I had to round up my children from school before heading back to the safety of my home, the extra ammo I carry could be needed. After Katrina, when we witness how people can turn into animals at the first sign of trouble, I bought a spare ammo carrier and I routinely carry my M&P 9C with a spare magazine of either 12 or 17 rounds. I doubt I will ever regret that I had too much ammo on me.
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Old March 18, 2008, 09:33 PM   #47
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If a disaster were to happen and I had to round up my children from school before heading back to the safety of my home, the extra ammo I carry could be needed.
That is when your "ruck gun" and the ammo stored with it comes into play.
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Old March 18, 2008, 10:00 PM   #48
Bazooka Joe71
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Nobody has yet died from having too much ammo.
HA, you beat me to it! Well, my saying is slightly different, but the same point.
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Old March 18, 2008, 10:07 PM   #49
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Nobody has yet died from having too much ammo.
Oh yeah, what if you are charged by killer bees and you are so waited down by excess ammo that you cannot get away in time?
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Old March 19, 2008, 11:17 AM   #50
Glenn E. Meyer
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Learn more stat and probability!

How much ammo would you carry on the Titanic when you had to abandon ship?

Geez!
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