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Old June 3, 2005, 10:48 AM   #1
Full Metal Jacket
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One-shot stop data

I read on this forum a little while ago that the U.S. goverment rates one-shot stops on the battlefield for 9mm NATO ball @ 63%, and .45ACP ball at 62%.
Can anyone show me the link that contains this data?

thanks.
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Old June 3, 2005, 11:13 AM   #2
Japle
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A lot depends on your definition of a "one-shot stop".

Marshall & Sanow, using their difinition, report 62-63% for .45 FMJ and about 70% for 9mm. Other "experts" who depend on gello tests and lab formulas have their own definitions.

I'd be interested in seeing the government study.

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Old June 3, 2005, 11:49 AM   #3
GunnyBob
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For entertainment purposes only, of course:

http://www.handloads.com/misc/stoppi...=18&Weight=All

Brief Preview:

45 ACP Stopping Power, all bullet weights
Brand Bullet Shootings One Shot Stops Percent Diameter Penetration Notes
Remington 185 gr GS 83 80 96% 0.69" 12.4"
Federal 230 gr HS 173 166 96% 0.76" 13.9"
CCI 230 gr GD 45 42 93% 0.68" 12.2"
Corbon 185 gr JHP 20 18 90% 0.78" 11.1"
Remington 185 gr GS 39 35 90% 0.62" 11.3" 4" barrel or less
Remington 230 gr GS 10 9 90% 0.73" 12.9"
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Old June 3, 2005, 01:09 PM   #4
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man i should switch to the 155 grain hydrashoks, they'er killing my 165s... never knew 10 grains was the difference between 7 and 17 crackheads that keep chasing me down the street after i put one in 'em.
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Old June 3, 2005, 01:18 PM   #5
CastleBravo
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This topic has been done to death. Suffice it to say, M&S have been comprehensively discredited.

One small bit of food for thought: M&S studies can't tell the difference between some .40 S&W loads, and a 12ga slug... they get almost the same OSS%.

So how can you expect them to detect small differences within the same caliber? The studies give essentially the same stopping power to a .400" 165gr @ 1,150 ft/sec pistol bullet as they do to a .729" 438gr @ 1,600 ft/sec shotgun slug.

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Old June 3, 2005, 01:45 PM   #6
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sorry i forgot the at the end of my post.
it's a good effort that they put forth and there's not much else to go on, but from a technical and mathematical point of view there are greivous errors.
i'd actually think it would be most correct within the same calibers, because it's the only apples-to-apples comparison they were able to do.
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Old June 3, 2005, 02:46 PM   #7
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Oh hell Castle Bravo, all the "experts" have been discredited by someone at sometime.

I have been following the "Great Stopping Power Debate" for about 40 years. I have copies of the works of almost all the well known "experts". I have shot deer size and smaller animals with various handguns and the lighter, faster, expanding bullets are better. I once put a .22lr through the body of a gopher at a range of 6 inches and the damn thing crawled another 10 inches and disappeared down its hole. When you get a "one shot stop" remember to thank the gods for helping out a little. The "Great Debate" always reminds me of a story I heard about an early IPSC Champion (a senior moment is causing his name to escape my mind) when he shot a small deer type animal in South Africa while he was there for the World Championship. After hitting the animal twice with a .45 ACP with no effect the man said something to the effect "I guess the little deer hasn't read Jeff Cooper's little red book!"

Of all the experts who have put their opinions in writing, Marshall and Sanow is the most credible I have seen based on their methodology. Does it have some flaws? Yes, but they appear to be less flawed than anything else I have seen in the last 4 decades, most of which is based on non-empirical or irrelavant methods. The similar results for shotgun slugs is due to the fact that the slugs are all about the same shape, traveling at about the same speed and made of the same homogenous material. Remember you cannot be stopped more than 100% so yes it is possible for a handgun bullet to be just as effective as a slug under all but the most extraordinary circumstances.

"In a world devoid of semiautomatics, a properly set-up Webley is the ultimate full-size self-defense handgun."
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Old June 3, 2005, 03:41 PM   #8
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one shot stop discussion for .40s and 9x19mm ridiculous

Quote:
M&S studies can't tell the difference between some .40 S&W loads, and a 12ga slug... they get almost the same OSS%.
so what? If some .40 S&W loads drop you instantly, a shotgun couldn't drop you more instantly, could it?

I always considered the one shot stop discussion for .40s and 9x19mm being ridiculous. Who bought a pistol in these calibers with 12 to 18 rounds to hit only once? That might be an issue in a 7-shot .45 1911 or a 6-shot .357 Mag revolver. Certrainly not in a modern pistol. Multiple hits - fast, that's what 9x19mm and .40s are made for. And that's what counts imo.

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Old June 3, 2005, 04:35 PM   #9
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All attempts to put numbers on bullet performance have some serious flawes.My own research ,on live animals , shows a distinct difference between 9mm and 45. Caliber counts .This has been shown again and again in the real world .Why do you think there are laws requiring at least .375 caliber to hunt dangerous african game ?? But don't get hung up with numbers , remember to shoot and continue to shoot until the BG is no longer a threat. Only GOOD hits count.
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Old June 3, 2005, 05:08 PM   #10
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1. One round fired, COM hit, target dies.
2. One round fired, COM hit, target incapacitated.
3. One round fired, COM hit, target doesn't stop and in fact kills his shooter, but then 2 seconds later hears his ex-wife yelling at him and so surrenders just to get away from her.
4. One round fired, head hit, target stops.
5. Two rounds fired in quick succession, target stops.
6. One round fired, left pinky shot off, target starts crying and surrenders.
7. One round fired, COM hit, target doesn't stop, two more rounds fired, COM hits, target stops.
8. Subject takes 14 rounds in the COM, head, and pelvis, doesn't stop, kills everyone within four square miles.
9. Six rounds fired, 3 COM hits, target doesn't stop.
10. Four rounds fired, 2 COM hits, 1 head hit, 1 pelvis hit, target doesn't stop.
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Old June 3, 2005, 05:57 PM   #11
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You can just throw out all the data on one shot stops. You have a darn good chance of finding you are on the short end of the percentage where the famous one shot stop did NOT happen.
Use enough gun, develop the mind set necessary to defend yourself, and practice, practice, practice.
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Old June 3, 2005, 09:10 PM   #12
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Would be interested in how exactly one shot anything is studied in combat situations with the armed forces. I can't imagine how it could be very thoroughly done.
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Old June 3, 2005, 09:43 PM   #13
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Placement!

Placement, placement, fast misses with any caliber, poor hits with any caliber, it's bullet placement, that determines the outcome and speed with which it happens. Every situation is, as people, different. Therefore the outcome isn't fully predictable or assured. Just think for a moment the horrific wounds/injuries that people have survived and now talk about "One shot stops", there are few, if any, guarantees of the outcome of any comfortation. So how can we assume that any one caliber is,was,can be better or the best for any given situation, IMHO, it can't. Studies only show what was researched at that time using a controled enviorment, and we don't live in such a world on a daily basis. Chose what works for you, have confidence in it, and practice to insure the best outcome, that you can deliver.
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Old June 3, 2005, 11:06 PM   #14
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I find it almost comical that we rely on such small cartridges for personal defense, I mean, would one use a 9mm or .45 acp on a deer hunt? Sometimes these cartridges are not even useful for the put down shot at close range (friend had 2 shots of .45 hardball glance off a caribou, though I am uncertain as to how well he placed these shots).

My point is that the basic cartridges available for self defense are puny, weak, and at best, barely adequate. Our intrigue with one shot stops and hyper performance ammo can be a dangerous infatuation. My personal example was with Aguila IQ ammo. It fit in with M&S's theories to a t, but even simple tests show that it is ineffective with the 9mm version penetrating a whole 3-4" in jello.

Light and fast don't always work, there seems to be some exceptions, most notably the .357 125 gr loading, but it is running at close to 1400 FPS. Unfortunately, I have yet to hit upon the magic formula that will determine for each caliber the proper bullet weight and speed to get the optimal performace for each cartridge, so we are here, stuck reading data, and guessing from 3rd hand reports of what works and what don't, and hoping what we have chosen will work well enough when the time arises.

I have never shot anyone. I hope to never have to, but if it happens, I know that it ain't gonna be like t.v., bad guys flying around and dropping dead, and it will probably be the worst day in both our lives.
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Old June 3, 2005, 11:16 PM   #15
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I am curios of how one develops a methodolgy for studing one shot stops even for war

I expect that under a stress situation you are likley to keep pulling the trigger till he drops or the magazzine runs dry... just my opinion not scientific fact.

So I would assume that on the first shot if the brain says you bought the farm there would be a good chance to get a second shot in

plus factoring in the Murphy factor.......

I see a study might be a good indicator of the event happening...but reality always manages to throw curve balls sometimes.
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Old June 3, 2005, 11:30 PM   #16
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All I know is.. I'm not goin to stop shooting till I see the intended target drop, or when I run out of ammo.
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Old June 4, 2005, 12:20 AM   #17
Webleywielder
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The answer to Mete's question about caliber restrictions in Africa

Most of the restrictions were created when bullet technology was far more primative than it is today. By the way, I think some of those restrictions actually require .40 caliber or larger, not .375.

Technology changes. Nobody in 1880 was to keen on using a .375 caliber bullet launched by black powder against dangerous game.

High energy bullets with sufficient penetrating power to hit the vital organs and bone structures and not over penetrate are far more likely to deliver a devestating blow than high momentum bullets are on thin-skinned light-boned animals. Humans are thin-skinned light-boned animals.

Ultimately it is the placement of a bullet that has enough penetration and energy in a vital area to disrupt the ability to the living target to sustain action that counts. Please remember the greatest elephant hunter of all time (Bell) killed most of them with a little 7x57 Mauser firing solids into the brain.
Unfortunately brain shots are low percentage shots for 99.9% of self-defense and hunting scenarios. If they were not, we would all be hunting deer with FMJs.

"In a world devoid of semiautomatics, a properly set-up Webley is the ultimate full-size self-defense handgun."
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Old June 6, 2005, 01:06 PM   #18
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Quote:
If some .40 S&W loads drop you instantly, a shotgun couldn't drop you more instantly, could it?
The error here is actually believing that .40 S&W can consistently drop anything bigger than a gopher instantly. No study based on reality would produce identical "stopping power" results for a .40 S&W handgun cartridge and a 12ga shotgun slug... it just ain't physically possible. Yet the M&S OSS numbers do just that.

Ooh, convincing.

Quote:
Remember you cannot be stopped more than 100% so yes it is possible for a handgun bullet to be just as effective as a slug under all but the most extraordinary circumstances.
Pure comedy. Have you even looked at the projectiles side-by-side?
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Old June 6, 2005, 01:59 PM   #19
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CastleBravo it appears you have a Battlecruiser=Battleship mentality

If you are judging anything that has to do with firearms using a side by side criteria you are headed for Jutland. Battlecruisers look just like Battleships, in other words size does not determine effectiveness.

Oh wouldn't it be wonderful if life was so simple that side by side comparisons were sufficient! Things would be so much simpler and we would all be shooting the very impressive looking .50 Remington/M71 Army in our handguns.


"In a world devoid of semiautomatics, a properly set-up Webley is the ultimate full-size self-defense handgun."
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Old June 6, 2005, 02:03 PM   #20
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Quote:
I mean, would one use a 9mm or .45 acp on a deer hunt?
yes. A roe deer (capreolus capreolus, 60#):

dropped one second after being hit with a .22lr (to the heart). Placement. You can shoot one leg off with a 12ga and the BG can still return fire. Put a .22 into his brain stem and - relax.

Stay safe and sound.
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Old June 6, 2005, 09:54 PM   #21
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Right. OSS data are ONLY important when on paper. Actually, they provide a really interesting and frightening set of considerations for real life. The OSS is based on percentages. There is the assumption that the percentages are predictive in some manner. But as statisticians note, you can have a bad run where you get several instances where the expected result is not attained and such a problem can actually happen randomly (as far as the numbers and order of occurence are concerned). A lightbulb maker may have a 99.9% successful working bulb rate, but that won't mean that the maker will have 1 bulb in 1000 that doesn't work. He could have a run of 50000 that work fine and then have a complete bad batch of 50 in a row that fail.

If we are talking OSS percentages, you have no way of knowing if you will be in the 50,000 that work fine, or in the batch of 50.

Of course, the other problem of OSS data is that there are no real controls over other parameters other than the bullet make and model and whether or not the person was "stopped" with just one shot. Without other controls, you have no real way of predicting bullet performance for your particular situation since you don't know if the parameters of your situation correspond to those where OSS were successful or not. A couple of the repeated parameters for which there is no control in the statistics are shot placement and condition of the shootee.

No doubt a huge bias in the supposed statistics is that better shooting will produce better results more often. When the shooter is a poor shot, then several shots may be required to effect the stop and so those stats are not considered. In other words, OSS is most likely to happen when you manage to perform well as the shooter. From this, what is important to not that shooter performance is going to be just as relevant or more relevant than bullet performance.

At the other end of the scale, OSS have been reported in many cases where the shooter doesn't even manage to hit the opposition. In one case, an old lady heard a man breaking in at her front door and so she got her .25 auto and when the guy came in to her home, she shot at him and got the desired stop with one shot. The only problem is, she didn't hit him. She hit the door frame. She intended to hit him, but missed. And along those lines, OSSs have been attained with warning shots. In both these examples, it isn't the bullet or shooter performance that produced the stop. It was the report that generated fear of potentially being shot that produced the stop.
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Old June 6, 2005, 10:24 PM   #22
Webleywielder
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Very cogent posting Double Naught Spy!

You know your stuff! Thanks!


"In a world devoid of semiautomatics, a properly set-up Webley is the ultimate full-size self-defense handgun."
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Old June 7, 2005, 09:59 AM   #23
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Quote:
Battlecruisers look just like Battleships, in other words size does not determine effectiveness.
Your statement makes no sense and is completely irrelevant to the discussion.

The correct analogy would be to compare a 5" destroyer gun to a 16" battleship gun. M&S claim that the 5" gun (.40 S&W) is essentially equivalent to a 16" battleship gun (12ga slug). This is extremely silly on the face of it.

We are taking a projectile almost triple the mass, almost double the diameter, and over twice the velocity of the .40 S&W projectile, and claiming it no better than the .40 S&W in actual use. Then we are claiming that even though the study can't detect the COLOSSAL difference between the effects that these two projecitles cause, it can detect the small difference in performance between different .40 S&W JHP loads.

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Old June 7, 2005, 12:59 PM   #24
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Quote:
M&S claim that the 5" gun (.40 S&W) is essentially equivalent to a 16" battleship gun (12ga slug).
I don't support M&S much, but that is not what they say. There is not a consideration of equivalence in performance between the calibers, the issue is equivalence in outcome. If you get (hypothetical numbers used here!) a 99% stopping rate for the shotgun, and a 100% stopping rate with a 5" gun, the stopping rate is nearly identical. That does not in any way address the idea of equivalence between the shotgun and the 5" gun, only equivalence in outcome.
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Old June 7, 2005, 01:38 PM   #25
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One Shot Stops should be considered nothing more than happy chance

Plan on shooting several times...even with good placement and sufficent caliber.
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