price of bullets

[mags2079]

went to my bass pro the other day and noticed that their is more lead free ammo now that the last lead plant closed down in the u.s. for example a box of 50 22LR was made of tin and cost 10. dollars. it as not even comptiton grade ammo, and weighed 17 grains. Can this be are future with our bullets.

what do you think on this.

[Brian Pfleuger]

I think the last lead plant in America didn't close down. That was the last PRIMARY SMELTER. It was shut down for good reason.

There is no lead shortage, the ammo you happened to see in one trip to Bass Pro is a tad short of conclusive.

[mboylan]

Bullets are made from recycled lead. There are plenty of lead smelters operating in the US. The smelter that closed down was for lead ore.

It is much cheaper to mine and smelt lead ore in other countries and ship it here than it is to it in the US.

There is absolutely no shortage of lead in the US. There is no shortage of bullets either. I can get bullets to reload with whenever I please.

The manufacturers cannor meet demand for.22 rimfire. That will eventually pass.

[Jim243]

That will eventually pass.

Not too sure of that, according to one paper I read at the current rate of production, you should be able to purchase two bricks of 22 LR once every 1.92 years base on the number of 22 LR shooters. That still leaves me 1.2 years till my next purchase.

Jim

A lot of 9mm, 40 S&W & 45 ACP as well as 223 shooters have switched over to 22 LR due to shortages and increased cost. We may have to wait a long long time for 22 LR.

[Brian Pfleuger]

Originally Posted by Jim243

Not too sure of that, according to one paper I read at the current rate of production, you should be able to purchase two bricks of 22 LR once every 1.92 years base on the number of 22 LR shooters. That still leaves me 1.2 years till my next purchase.

Such a statistic would really heavily on entirely baseless assumptions about shooting amounts and frequencies. I am a "22LR shooter" who has had in his possession one single bulk pack of Federal ammo bought a couple of years ago and which is still half full.

A lot of 9mm, 40 S&W & 45 ACP as well as 223 shooters have switched over to 22 LR due to shortages and increased cost. We may have to wait a long long time for 22 LR.

22LR has always been far cheaper than those rounds. If they switched because of the shortages in those rounds, they would now switch back, since 22LR is hard to find while those other rounds are now filling store shelves to ridiculous excess in many (probably most) places.

22LR is still scarce because gun folks are still in panic mode. The guy at the newly reopened Gander Mountain in Binghamton NY told me that they are getting "a pallet or two every day or two" and it sells out in 2 hours or less. There are people waiting there at 730 am and they don't open until 9. How much you want to bet that it's the same people over and over again?

That same Gander Mountain has (literally) tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of rounds EACH of .40sw, 9mm, 45acp, 38spl and .223/556.

[higgite]

what do you think on this.

I think Brian pretty well summed it up in post #2.

[Jim243]

Such a statistic would really heavily on entirely baseless assumptions about shooting amounts and frequencies

It is based on an paper from one of the VP's of Federal that stated that although there are hoarders and the black market for 22 LR, the real problem is that the demand for 22 LR is what is causing the problem and the demand is so high that at CURRENT PRODUCTION rates it will be 1.92 YEARS before the demand can be met.

I too have 3,000 rounds of 22 LR, which is only 6 bulk packs that I bought back in 2009 and very seldom shoot 22 LR.

You and I are not the average shooter since we load our own ammo and for the most part shoot larger calibers than 22 LR.

"Baseless assumption", you know me better than that, what, you are having a bad day??

Jim

[Unclenick]

Are you sure he meant current production rates, or did he mean it will take that long for the industry production rate to catch up? I know it can take a long time (six months to a year or so) or the custom machinery to be purchased and put in place. The trick for manufacturers is trying to guess what real on-going demand will be, as they neither want to lose out on the opportunity to make sales, nor want to be caught having invested in capacity that winds up sitting idle.

Here's the ATK statement I found. It indicates they are increasing capacity.

[Brian Pfleuger]

Not your baseless assumption, theirs.

I would just ask how the guy who builds the ammo and is several steps removed from the end user could have any way of knowing what the end user (or end reseller/profiteer) is doing with his ammo and why?

What we see in the market does not support his assertion. The demand for .22LR didn't build up slowly over time, or even suddenly gain popularity in a relatively short time. The stuff simply STARTED VANISHING immediately after the Newtown shooting, along with basically every thing else gun related.

Hoarders and panic buyers helped create the shortage, and now sustain it, and profiteers started helping when things got scarce and they found that others would pay (almost literally) any price for a box of ammo.

Prices are on the decline, which indicates that demand is on the decline. Stores now have incredible excess of almost all flavors of center-fire ammo and are getting regular shipments of .22LR. Pretty soon, the hoaders and panic will end and all will be as it should be.

The best evidence? This isn't the first (or second or third) time this has happened. It has always ended. This time is longer than most, maybe the longest of all, but it too will end.

[Jim Watson]

Agreed.
The problem now is that we had not fully recovered from the 2009 Obama I Panic before the 2012 Obama II Panic set in. High profile murders in Newtown and elsewhere have energized the antis and reinforced the Panic.

I was fortunate that most of my .22s salvaged after The Incident (with house fire) are shootable.

Bullets are reasonably available, as are rifle powders.
Pistol and shotgun powders are still very short, at least around here and at the www vendors I check.

[Brian Pfleuger]

I've been watching .22LR stock and prices using GunBot.

Prices have been steadily declining. Today, MidWayUSA reports subsonic Aquila in 500 round boxes at 8 cents a round. Standard 50 round boxes of CCI are down to $5.99 (12 cents), not far from what they were pre-panic.

It's almost over....

[Jim243]

It's almost over....

Let's hope so, thanks. Now if I can only find pistol powder for my loads. Seems rifle powder is coming back, but not pistol yet. (Win 231 in particular, I am down to three pounds right now)

Jim

[Brian Pfleuger]

I suspect, based on the super abundance of center-fire ammo, that the powder supply will also rebound shortly. They're going to have to cut production of ammo soon. The stores I've been to, from South, East PA to Central and Western NY, are absolutely jam packed with ammo. The biggest variable will be how quickly the hoarders and profiteers scoop up the increasing supply. If it comes back too slow or they are able to buy too much, we will have the same situation as the .22LR right now.

[Jim243]

Are you sure he meant current production rates, or did he mean it will take that long for the industry production rate to catch up?

In the paper, he said that demand was 15 billion rounds a year and that current production is only at 4 million rounds a day. While 15 billion might sound like a lot of ammo, it would only cover 3,000,000 shooters and that they are waiting for things to cool down as well as LOOKING at more capacity since the equipment is so expensive. Stockholders do not like to lose money on future production.

Jim

If you stop and think about it, Wal-Mart has 8,000 stores in the US and if they sold 40,000 rounds a month per store (80 500 round packs), that would be 3.8 Billion rounds a year just from Wal-Mart. Now you add, Cabela's, Academy Sports, Bass Pro, Gander Mt., Midway USA, Cheaper than Dirt, and you can start to see the problem.

[rclark]

Well, all I know is there still isn't any .22 on the shelf ... I will need 15-16 bulk boxes to just get 'back to normal'. And I am not the only one 'waiting'.... So as I see it, it will not be ending soon as there is a lot of us that are waiting in the wings to buy 'a lot' (at normal prices) to just get back to normal 'stock' .. and from the talk, many more will 'increase' their stock given the opportunity so they would be caught unawares again. Now in my case, I 'thought' I had enough ... and I did get through all of last year no problem (just a piddly 10 boxes or so) . I assumed by winter we would be back to normal and I could restock.... That didn't happen of course, and another year of shortages is upon us. So the next time I get the opportunity, I will probably stock up even more IF I can! And that is now looking like a big IF.

[Brian Pfleuger]

If everybody would go back to buying what they use, and stocking up slowly at first until stock returns, we all be fine. The trouble is that everybody wants to restock NOW! So, if they see ammo, they buy every round they can. They have the wife buy two boxes. They go back in later and get more if it's still there. That's what needs to stop.

Sure, buy a box today, and another next week and another the next week. Then leave it alone until stock is normal again or you need more in a few weeks, or a year for most of us.

[std7mag]

Mboylan,

You obviusly haven't tried to get Sierra 140gr. Game King in 7mm....

I have found them online, but at what added cost to ship?

Local gun shops (and I'm talking within 50 miles), and a reloading supply place near me don't have/can't get them.

[mboylan]

I buy in large enough quantities to average out shipping so that it is less than tax.

[FrankenMauser]

You obviusly haven't tried to get Sierra 140gr. Game King in 7mm

You're lucky to have found them, at all.
Sierra hasn't run that bullet since 2012.
The same goes for all of their handgun, 6mm, 6.5mm, .311/.312, and 8mm bullets; and almost all of their .277 and .338 bullets.

Since early 2013, Sierra has been maximizing profit by essentially running only .224" and .308" bullets (almost entirely Match Kings).

And most of the bullets people have been waiting for.... They aren't on the production schedule until 2015, if at all.

[dgerwin11]

What will the people do that are buying it up at theses high prices do when prices level out? They can watch their anticipated profits go down the drain.

Bubbles burst. Anyone who plans on unburstable bubbles will get hosed through their own actions.

[William T. Watts]

Regardless what others say I'm interested in my ability to purchase when I have a need, I have "not" been able to purchase 22 ammo for several years and would do so in a heart beat if the ammunition were in the store. I have a Winchester model 9422 lever gun I haven't fired in more years than I care to think about but refuse to pay $50 or more to the scalpers for a brick!! Ain't going to happen!! William

[RC20]

I tried the approach listed below and I wound up with a worse powder shortage and no 22 (I got one brick due to my brother finding some good RSW at a gun show and two bricks bulk at a Cabellas opening)

Unfortunately ts not just the hoarders now. Its the normal users that get affected. If you act like a good person and get just what you need, then you run out again (if the shortages extends like this one has).

At this point I am buying what I can get when I can and will see if it settles out.

I am seeing more powder show up (not what I want all the time) and as mentioned, loaded cartridges are piling up.

Something to note that reinforces the hoarder aspect. I don't see any 22 being shot at the range (occasional but not often). I am by far the more common 22 shooter (I mix it up withe the rifle shooting). I also don't see the thousands of pounds of powder being shot up at the range.

Once it comes back I would stock up enough to carry through 2 years worth of shooting and that should get you through any future panic. Not the way I would like to do it but as its my main recreation if I want to be able to do it then that seems necessary.

So, in the past I would not invest in an 8 lb (or 5 lb R17), not if I can get it I will buy it. I passed on 8 lbs of 4831 3 months ago and regret it. Ruins a lot of the enjoyment if you are constantly having to look to see if its in not being sure you can just buy it as needed a few pounds at a time.

If everybody would go back to buying what they use, and stocking up slowly at first until stock returns, we all be fine. The trouble is that everybody wants to restock NOW! So, if they see ammo, they buy every round they can. They have the wife buy two boxes. They go back in later and get more if it's still there. That's what needs to stop.

Sure, buy a box today, and another next week and another the next week. Then leave it alone until stock is normal again or you need more in a few weeks, or a year for most of us.

[Wallyl]

I have a supply of .22 RF that I bought in 2012...but I have shot very little of it knowing that I cannot easily get more or I'll have to pay what I consider is way to much for it. I cannot help but feel if everyone else did the same, we'd no longer have a shortage.

I now shoot CF reloads only and I prefer them anyway. The only advantage with .22 RF was it was cheap...take that away and I have no incentive to buy/shoot any.

The sad thing is that I think we all realize that we can never ever again count on an ready and/or ample supply of ammunition or reloading components. A very sad commentary as to the fate of the nation IMHO.....and that really makes me sick.

[zincwarrior]

I've been watching .22LR stock and prices using GunBot.

Prices have been steadily declining. Today, MidWayUSA reports subsonic Aquila in 500 round boxes at 8 cents a round. Standard 50 round boxes of CCI are down to $5.99 (12 cents), not far from what they were pre-panic.

It's almost over....

Until you notice every other item is out of stock, no backorder...

[Brian Pfleuger]

Gunbot only shows the items that are in stock (or were very recently) if you check the box.

It lags a little behind but it used to be that almost every thing sold out within minutes, if not seconds, of being reported available.

PSA has had CCI standard velocity in stock for days now. That was unheard of just a few weeks ago, at any price point. Theirs is $5.99 and it's not selling out.

Prices are still high on a lot of it but as stock begins to sit (it is now) those prices will gradually come down (they already are).